Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Master-Classter]

All reds today. GLF and CHK down fairly hard. I added a bit to MU and a decent chunk to GLF. Hoping GLF and CHK go lower so I can double down at these levels.

TSLA came down a bit but not enough for me to want to add more.
Airlines, same thing.

BKD down like 6% today, what gives. Seems random.

 

[OmniscientCause]

too much was posted here in the last few days for me to keep up...keep up with ATVI that is. First time going north of 40.

 

[amerikajinda]

Bought some SGIIX

 

[horndog]

I am planning to go long in ICON soon but have to wait until it stops bottoming out which hopefully happens soon. LXRX is another play that I'm bullish on with one of their diabetes treatments in phase 3, co-sponsored by Sanofi. Otherwise I want to dip into platinum mining, but there seem to be so many issues with mining in South Africa which holds most of the world's deposits. Haven't found anything too promising yet. GDX and SLW have been great to me the last two weeks (wish I'd gotten on the JNUG wagon!). I've stopped playing with the volatility picks.

 

[horndog]



All reds today. GLF and CHK down fairly hard. I added a bit to MU and a decent chunk to GLF. Hoping GLF and CHK go lower so I can double down at these levels.

TSLA came down a bit but not enough for me to want to add more.
Airlines, same thing.

BKD down like 6% today, what gives. Seems random.

TSLA (and corresponding lithium stocks) could be a great short play with very little good news lately. Now two people have died because of autopilot, they missed the delivery #s, SolarCity acquisition seems like a stretch, and if the economy turns into a real bear will people still line up for novel electric vehicles? Will keep an eye on it. I dig your other plays.

 

[lawyerdad]



TSLA (and corresponding lithium stocks) could be a great short play with very little good news lately. Now two people have died because of autopilot, they missed the delivery #s, SolarCity acquisition seems like a stretch, and if the economy turns into a real bear will people still line up for novel electric vehicles? Will keep an eye on it. I dig your other plays.

Dunno, it's such a crazy momentum shock. Delivery miss was in the market all day today, on an overall down day, and had little effect. They're sticking to their full year delivery estimates. Whether you believe them or not, lots of ither folks do. Shorting it seems pretty high risk high reward, and since everything you've cited has already been out there I'm not even sure how high the reward is absent some new news.

 

[MSchapiro]

I am planning to go long in ICON soon but have to wait until it stops bottoming out which hopefully happens soon. LXRX is another play that I'm bullish on with one of their diabetes treatments in phase 3, co-sponsored by Sanofi. Otherwise I want to dip into platinum mining, but there seem to be so many issues with mining in South Africa which holds most of the world's deposits. Haven't found anything too promising yet. GDX and SLW have been great to me the last two weeks (wish I'd gotten on the JNUG wagon!). I've stopped playing with the volatility picks.

Have you read through the clinicals on LXRX?

 

[horndog]



Have you read through the clinicals on LXRX?

I went through a few of the Sotagliflozin releases.

 

[Master-Classter]

Day started quite down and then seemed to level off by the end. I trimmed a few things in the morning since I thought we were going to get a Brexit aftershock but so far not too bad. Airlines came up a bit earlier in the week but are back down now. I'm running out of spare cash.

I bought HIMX on Friday and sold it Monday/Tuesday. Bought at 7.7, sold at 8. OK it was a small position and only a 5% return but for a two day trade eh I'm ok with that. Every little bit here and there. Next time will hold out for closer to 9 if it happens.

Was expecting TSLA to come down quite a bit but so far not too bad... if it goes under 200 again I'm buying in and holding until 220-230.

 

[MSchapiro]

I went through a few of the Sotagliflozin releases.

Make sure to read them thoroughly. Press releases in pharma are so misleading.

Did it hit the initially planned primary and secondary endpoints? Are they meaningful endpoints? Did every group hit them? Were the results very decisive since Phase III always tends to be worse than Phase II. Did they unreasonable pre-screen patients or post screen the groups? What were the feedback of the KOLs associated with the trial?

Then finally how is the market pricing it? Is it expecting a billion dollars of sales for the current value to make sense? Sometimes a stock has a decent sounding pipeline so all semblance of an achieve able valuation goes out the window.

 

[the shah]



Make sure to read them thoroughly. Press releases in pharma are so misleading.

Did it hit the initially planned primary and secondary endpoints? Are they meaningful endpoints? Did every group hit them? Were the results very decisive since Phase III always tends to be worse than Phase II. Did they unreasonable pre-screen patients or post screen the groups? What were the feedback of the KOLs associated with the trial?

Then finally how is the market pricing it? Is it expecting a billion dollars of sales for the current value to make sense? Sometimes a stock has a decent sounding pipeline so all semblance of an achieve able valuation goes out the window. 

Better than press release is any publications they may have (though sometimes there is a lag associated with releasing these) since theoretically it has passed some standard of acceptance within the field.

One thing I would add is, assuming it is not a totally new market, the effectiveness compared other products vs the cost compared to existing treatments. It can often be a valuation based on expected sales that, given the marginal improvements, will never be realized if insurance firms don't want to pay up.

If on the other hand it's breaking ground in totally new treatment territory, sure there's more room for maneuvering but then your volumes are more limited (or, in the case of Gilead, if you're so good at curing patients--a good thing--you're also killing your market).

 

[MSchapiro]

Better than press release is any publications they may have (though sometimes there is a lag associated with releasing these) since theoretically it has passed some standard of acceptance within the field.

One thing I would add is, assuming it is not a totally new market, the effectiveness compared other products vs the cost compared to existing treatments. It can often be a valuation based on expected sales that, given the marginal improvements, will never be realized if insurance firms don't want to pay up.

If on the other hand it's breaking ground in totally new treatment territory, sure there's more room for maneuvering but then your volumes are more limited (or, in the case of Gilead, if you're so good at curing patients--a good thing--you're also killing your market).

Insurance and reimbursement is always a toss up. Even projecting these things professionally I may as well throw darts at a board to figure out how it will shake out.

None of LXRX's products were in new treatment areas, in fact they were very competitive treatment areas such as Diabetes and RA. I didn't see if they had any novel MOAs compared to what is out there already since at least that has a chance of responding to previously non responsive patients.

As for Gilead curing patients, that is actually good for business. If you can get away with 80% of the revenue for a cure up front it's not only better from a time value of money perspective but from a market share perspective too. Someone will inevitably make a better chronic treatment in a few years and your revenue stream will dry up. Or even if they don't you patent will expire and your drug will go generic. Yet the pharma makes more money from treatment than cures line just will not die...

 

[Master-Classter]

So... anyone else buying GILD around these levels then?

 

[the shah]



Insurance and reimbursement is always a toss up. Even projecting these things professionally I may as well throw darts at a board to figure out how it will shake out. 

None of LXRX's products were in new treatment areas, in fact they were very competitive treatment areas such as Diabetes and RA. I didn't see if they had any novel MOAs compared to what is out there already since at least that has a chance of responding to previously non responsive patients. 

As for Gilead curing patients, that is actually good for business. If you can get away with 80% of the revenue for a cure up front it's not only better from a time value of money perspective but from a market share perspective too. Someone will inevitably make a better chronic treatment in a few years and your revenue stream will dry up. Or even if they don't you patent will expire and your drug will go generic. Yet the pharma makes more money from treatment than cures line just will not die...

I agree it's a toss up but sometimes it's just obvious (novocure, for example, marginal improvements and totally new therapeutic device costing an obscene amount -- no way it was going to be covered) and can often end up being negotiated down.

i think it can be a good thing for business, but if your pipeline is dried up and it's your only cash cow, how can it help to eradicate the indication ? obviously it's not the end as it's still transmissible, but curing large swaths reduces the risk of spreading. so i'm not sure i understood completely what you mean unless you meant generally and not in this instance ?

 

[MSchapiro]

I agree it's a toss up but sometimes it's just obvious (novocure, for example, marginal improvements and totally new therapeutic device costing an obscene amount -- no way it was going to be covered) and can often end up being negotiated down.

i think it can be a good thing for business, but if your pipeline is dried up and it's your only cash cow, how can it help to eradicate the indication ? obviously it's not the end as it's still transmissible, but curing large swaths reduces the risk of spreading. so i'm not sure i understood completely what you mean unless you meant generally and not in this instance ?

Sure, but most aren't novocure.

I think you're missing that it's a bigger cash cow.
Gilead can get away with charging 80% of the lifetime chronic cost, probably down to 50% weighted after rebates and everything. That is a hell of a lot of money up front. It also means less people will assault the market in the future. On top of that no one gets the chronic treatment cost forever. Other companies come out with new and better drugs. Patents expire.
If a cure is worth 50% of the lifetime chronic cost and you have 100% of the market, that is a lot more valuable than being the leading chronic treatment for 3-5 years (not to mention there is a slow switch over to new chronic treatments, if old patients will even switch).