Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.
haha yeah most early people already cashed out most of their shares.
2% overall on the first position. Was up more than that today, but was down from prior days.
Do you guys think the black Friday gains will be sustained? I closed my shorts on Wed. thinking the market would recover some but I'm really surprised by Friday's and today's gains. Europe is still in the doo doo and Japan is making me nervous too.
IF I knew I would have dropped out of school and trade full time. Gains were good but I feel like once it dies off, market will drop again
FWIW, I think poor bond auctions and the undercapitalization of European banks are going to drag the market back down this week.
In any case, the algo said go short, so we're short as of tomorrow morning.
Italian yields nearly hit 8%, and what is the market doing today? Oh, rallying of course.
I don't get this market at all.
AMR goes bankrupt...how long before it gets delisted?
Planes. You still need them to go certain places. Hmmm.
a lot of bad news is already priced in. Kind of dangerous to short the market now,
i love that "bad news already priced in" fallacy. the dow is still at 11.5 wait until it hits 10k and then drops, then all you "bad news already priced in" people will really be happy with your longs
In my personal opinion, it's not nearly priced in enough. The collapse of the EZ is, to my mind, a near-certainty.
In any case, we closed out our position at 12:59 PST today when we were above our threshold. Kind of interesting conundrum arises as a result of this though -- since SPY was flat from open to close today, our algo is going to see today as a hold-position day, not a day to close the position. However, I don't sell at exactly the close, so when I saw it above the threshold I closed it. So the question is -- what do we do now? Open a new position tomorrow? Wait until we would have closed the position if we had left it open today?
Do you really see the Germans giving up on this? I'm not asking the question like an asshole, I'm asking for your opinion.
GLW down 10% today.. all my profits eliminated in one fell swoop.
SCREW YOU SAMSUNG
I don't think it's up to them at this point. Well, they have the power to really push for what would be necessary to fix the EZ, but they won't. Because the only answer requires German inflation, and they've made it clear that that will never, ever happen. Damn the torpedoes, let the whole world burn down, but there will not be any goddamn inflation.
If Italy gives its creditors a haircut (which at this point, I see as the only viable solution to Italy's debt woes, which are in vicious circle mode and bound to get only worse from here), then there will be bank runs, bank failures, and a credit crunch/freeze. It will be too late to save the EZ then. The periphery/EUSouth will need to devalue, and because Germany is only going to allow that through crippling, brutal deflation, the periphery will see leaving the Eurozone as a more humane and desirable option. And on a political level, people in the periphery/South will start to resent what they see as German imposition of economic despair, and elect anti-EZ leaders.
The only way to prevent this is to save Italy -- which would require an ECB willing to act as lender of last resort and willing to make hundreds of billions of euros of bond purchases from troubled sovereigns. And Germany ain't about to let that happen.
I think the pessimism is overblown, I've been shorting a lot this year, but in this current market i'm shifting gears and taking long positions.
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