passingtime
Senior Member
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2006
- Messages
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- 7
Have you factored in fees and slippage? Those can kill you if you are only trading low volumes initially.
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Have you factored in fees and slippage? Those can kill you if you are only trading low volumes initially.
It's not 200% annualized. Average annualized it's probably about in the 40-50% range -- which is still obviously very high -- because it performs better in these high-volatility markets and then slows down quite a bit when the market moves into a steady bull mode. And again, we do anticipate some falloff from the numbers on paper, just nothing incredibly dramatic. I'd be happy if we ended up doing half that in real life. 100% since 01/10 would be pretty darn nice.
And, I take your point -- believe me, we've thought about it -- but when you have numbers that validate consistently, that you've error checked, that you've had professionals look over, and that you can replicate across different periods of time, well, what are you supposed to think except that you have something that might work? Certainly I think it's worth the attempt. Of course it could all turn out to be useless and fall apart -- that's the nature of the business.
Well, rock on, and if it pays I expect a SF preferred membership in said baller fund.
so. two bumpkin amateurs, one a recent (reformed?) hippie/commie, the other a statistics phd student who is not alarmed by a perfect fit on his data, have discovered a trading strategy that beats all hedge funds ever, on their first try. stranger things have happened, but not many.
so. two bumpkin amateurs, one a recent (reformed?) hippie/commie, the other a statistics phd student who is not alarmed by a perfect fit on his data, have discovered a trading strategy that beats all hedge funds ever, on their first try. stranger things have happened, but not many.
good point RE the perfect fit to the data. Portfolio optimization problems are well-defined and the hard part is the estimation of the inputs, viz., the covariance matrix and the expected returns of the universe of investment choices. How are you estimating the covariance matrix? If you are estimating it with the sample covariance matrix then that is a sign that you guys still have some homework to do.
RE leveraged ETFs, hopefully you guys also know that these are only designed to be in sync with the advertised multiplier on a daily basis and that for longer holding periods they may be in the wrong direction? There is a lot of literature on this.