Will China really rule the world?

[Panzeraxe II]

Originally Posted by bakerboy

It already does that is why USD can be now called USP ( P stands for peso)

If China now called in the loan it would mean one of 2 things:

1) A total collapse of US economy or
3) Third World War

Actually, it would also mean the collapse of the Chinese economy.

As for China being the sole superpower, it is important to note that the Chinese economy is supported by cheap cheap government-provided capital. Once there is a correction at the large national banks (who have a bad debt ratio of about 30% compared to US banks at 2-5%), you will have the Chinese economy go into a tailspin for several years. And I won't even mention the social discontent that exists in Chinese society outside of the large cities.

 

[RJman]

I also wonder how long China can continue without overheating economically or socially. In addition to the social discontent mentioned by Panzer, it seems like progress is making certain areas literally unlivable for people. This can only lead to more unrest. While the Chinese government is more than capable of putting its foot down, I don't think it can maintain pressure indefinitely if things keep getting worse.

 

[Panzeraxe II]

Lastly, its worthwhile to note that the US hit superpower status without any enemies in its backyard. China doesn't have that luxury. To the north is Russia, which though not an ostensible threat is definitely a competitor. To the west, trouble in the Islamic provinces supported by Saudi Arabia and many Central Asian states. The east is worst - Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan. To the south, Vietnam and the famous counterwight to China, India.

There are a lot of different countries that have a strong interest in ensuring that China doesn't get too powerful. For all of America's faults, the world is comfortable living under the American umbrella. Hardly anyone feels the same about China.

 

[RJman]

Originally Posted by Panzeraxe II

For all of America's faults, the world is comfortable living under the American umbrella.
Of course, it appears sometimes that we Americans are singing The Police: "It's a big enough umbrella, but it's always me that ends up getting wet..."

 

[GQgeek]

Originally Posted by RJman

Of course, it appears sometimes that we Americans are singing The Police: "It's a big enough umbrella, but it's always me that ends up getting wet..."

Obviously not a Briggs umbrella.

 

[Viktri]

China may be the next superpower but not in the sense that the USA was the last superpower. I don't think a single country will ever hold such an advantage ever again with today's globalization of everything (especially tech and education).

as for Panzeraxe II's comments, they seem rather strongly American-centric. I know many people who have always been uncomfortable living under the American umbrella ie the Russians or Chinese

 

[imageWIS]

Originally Posted by GQgeek

Obviously not a Briggs umbrella.

It may not be a Briggs, but it has a blade hidden inside, just in case.

Jon.

 

[montecristo#4]

This has been discussed before on this board.

The answer is no, China will not overtake the US as a global power. Not in 50 years. Probably not in 100. (Although at some point China's GDP may exceed the US, possibly in about 70 years or so, their per capita GDP will be much lower and as a result the surplus the government can leverage to act like a great power will be much lower than the US). At some point the US will actually have a demographic advantage. More land, more resources, and higher population growth.

 

[dkzzzz]

No one mentioned that China produce zero new technologies or know-how and will remain 3rd world country for centuries because of it.
If they channeled all new found wealth into science and "bought" best minds around the world with various incentives then I would say China is on it's way to become something. Actually the same goes for Russia and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries.

 

[a-rock]

Originally Posted by dkzzzz

No one mentioned that China produce zero new technologies or know-how and will remain 3rd world country for centuries because of it.
If they channeled all new found wealth into science and "bought" best minds around the world with various incentives then I would say China is on it's way to become something. Actually the same goes for Russia and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries.

i saw these stats a few yrs ago -- the US accounts for >50% of all money spent on advanced technology and around 45% of all r&d. its probably changed a bit but thats staggering. the fact of the matter is, china can produce 100% of the world's fine suits and widgets, but unless they are able to develop advanced technology for themselves, they won't be in that superpower category for quite some time.

 

[Steve B.]

I thought Plankton was going to rule the world...

 

[rach2jlc]

Originally Posted by Steve B.

I thought Plankton was going to rule the world...

No, no... China first, THEN plankton a few months later.

 

[javyn]

The US and Canada still have an ace up our sleeves....food supply. We supply 60-70% of the world's food. Should we decide to be the way our middle-eastern friends are with oil, and just throw it on the open market, watch the world crap itself and 3 billion people starve because we are no longer subsidizing.

 

[alan]

I think the US has made a mess out of being the sole superpower in the world.

Other countries wont overtake it or destroy it, but in various places regimes will come up that are resistant or opponents to the american policy and its control over the world will shrink.

Some of these wont be good news, others could be.

A balance is very crucially needed, the US policy has only focused on its own interests and has alienated a huge part of the world.