Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[SkinnyGoomba]

WFC cutting their dividend, can’t say that it is unexpected since the Stress year weights in on their distributions. This is a **** year to be a dividend investor, lol.

 

[jcman311]

Bullish.

View attachment 1416457

I keep saying its just getting rid of the bad companies and less competition.

 

[Omega Male]

He’s mixing wine and Ambien again.

 

[Piobaire]

I'm too lazy to back out/account for contributions, so of course this number is not totally legit, but who else's portfolio is currently at all time highs?

 

[UnFacconable]

I'm too lazy to back out/account for contributions, so of course this number is not totally legit, but who else's portfolio is currently at all time highs?

LOL humblebrag? I suspect you know the answer is that very few people are at all time highs so you've obviously played your hand well.

The market is down about 3% since Jan 1 and 7.5% from peak. My returns from my trading accounts mostly mirror the market (VTI makes up more than half my equities). I've been trimming here and there over the past few months (and as noted before I've never been fully invested because I don't trust Trump) so at this point equities are less than 40% of my portfolio and of that about 1/4 is international. None of my sales were that close to the bottom, but I definitely missed some of the irrational exuberance. I have some more sales that I'm going to do if we hit Jan 1 prices which would take my equities down to 20% or less. I would have sold more but didn't want to deal with cap gains. I would be quite happy to be flat this year.

I didn't account for how active the Fed would be to preserve the market but fortunately I benefited from it. I still find it hard to believe that the market won't be significantly lower in 6 months than it is now when people can no longer ignore what's really happening in the economy.

 

[venividivicibj]

LOL humblebrag? I suspect you know the answer is that very few people are at all time highs so you've obviously played your hand well.

We should just rename it to #PioBrag

 

[lawyerdad]

I'm too lazy to back out/account for contributions, so of course this number is not totally legit, but who else's portfolio is currently at all time highs?

Me but only because we’re in the part of the year where I’ve been making 401k contributions.

 

[Piobaire]

Well, it's not much of a humblebrag when I told everyone at the time my "big move" was buying SPY. And now I've wussed out of that and those monies are all in a bond fund. I'm a regular day trader.

Now, if I had gotten into that sweet, sweet HTZ at the right time with the money I put into SPY? You'd be getting What Are You Drinking pics from poolside at a Ritz somewhere.

 

[Piobaire]

I still find it hard to believe that the market won't be significantly lower in 6 months than it is now when people can no longer ignore what's really happening in the economy.

Biden wins and effective vaccine gets deployed. If those two things happen are you sure about this call? I'm staying heavy in SPY but new purchases are going 50/50 SPY/VBTLX.

 

[patrickBOOTH]

My big move of the year was rebalancing.

 

[UnFacconable]

Biden wins and effective vaccine gets deployed. If those two things happen are you sure about this call? I'm staying heavy in SPY but new purchases are going 50/50 SPY/VBTLX.

It's hard to predict the market, but I think the economy will be materially worse for years, even in the scenario you outlined. Mary Daly from the SF Fed recently said recovery will take 4-5 years in the best case scenario. I'm not sure it has to be that bad, but it's not going to be just a few more months of pain. I thought the market was overpriced in January and February, and given how much economic damage has been done, it's hard to believe that the public equity markets are only reflecting a small single digit decrease in value. The private markets certainly have priced in a much bigger dicount.

You can turn the economy off pretty quickly, but it's hard to turn back on. Some of the negative impacts are going to need some time to work through the system before they become apparent. How many businesses have permanently shuttered as a result of the reduction in consumer mobility (whether mandated by shelter in place orders or otherwise)? Landlords won't be collecting those rents and their employees won't have jobs. The stimulus and expanded unemployment (which runs out at the end of this month) juiced things for a little bit but they aren't permanent. Eventually, having tens of millions of additional unemployed Americans will reduce demand for goods and services, resulting in even more bankuptcies and downstream impacts.

I'm in regular contact with peers from dozens of other startups across the country, and the struggles are widespread - even at B2B companies that many would think are shielded from the impacts. Everyone is reducing unnecessary spending and preparing for the worst. Consumer behavior in the face of economic uncertainty can be irrational (eg millions of people in at-risk industries should be reducing spend now to build a rainy day fund) but many/most businesses that are professionally run and have investors to answer to, are forced to plan for the future.

TL;DR it's too late for a vaccine or Joe Biden to prevent much of what is to come.

 

[Piobaire]

So triple leveraged puts?

 

[Piobaire]

If anyone here is single: https://firedating.me/

 

[lawyerdad]

If anyone here is single: https://firedating.me/

Offering the opportunity to be an early beta.

 

[jbarwick]

Down 2% YTD at the end of Q2. I'll take it