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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

gettoasty

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People were discussing sequence of return risk before in this thread but how is this any different than timing the market when you’re in the accumulation phase of your life stage? As far as I recall no one here is withdrawing funds. Anyone can refresh my memory why SORR was brought up to begin with?
 

Texasmade

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I live in a red state and I’m getting fucked by Trump’s taxes.
 

Piobaire

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It's the opposite of timing the market. You're protecting yourself from the need to liquidate investments in a down period. It was brought up because some of us are in the final 15 years or so of accumulation so we'd be stupid not to start thinking about plans to guard against SORR.
 

gettoasty

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15 years is still considered LT but what you’re saying if I understand correctly is repositioning portfolios in a way to avoid major downturn that will affect retirement withdrawals and distributions. Then, again how is that different from market timing? Unless you really believe in the next decade plus the broad market is going to have meager returns, following major contraction.

Perhaps I’m thinking of the term too narrowly; changing investment strategy like your asset allocation is one thing (I guess it is in a way protecting against SORR). But I view SORR as being more of a problem post-accumulation, like withdrawing when in down market, subsequently eroding assets and spending down faster than planned.

Makes sense then to have multiple income streams or buckets of assets to meet supplemental income need.

Just thinking out load here, no way in saying what’s right or wrong.
 
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Piobaire

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@gettoasty, you have to be ready for a down market years prior to your first possible withdrawal. Outside of a lack of savings starting your retirement in a down market without adequate SORR hedges is the #1 risk to a financially successful retirement. It's the same reason one keeps cash reserves for at least a year's unemployment; don't be in a position where you might need to liquidate devalued assets out of your taxable accounts. Also, as one ages, the odds of something happening forcing an earlier than planned retirement increases so again the need to guard against SORR even earlier than planned.

That said I was discussing with Mrs. Piob the other night that between our guaranteed monthly cheques and an adequate cash reserve, we can stay 80-90% in equities into our 80s and keep those gains rolling.
 

UnFacconable

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Does anyone else get the feeling that Piob and the Missus are gonna go out Brewster’s Millions style?

I've mentioned this all before and Piob has noted he wants additional safety but there just seems to be a huge disconnect here.

The facts we have are that he hates working, has a strong understanding of personal finance, has defined benefit plans to de-risk late retirement, doesn’t have kids and isn’t prioritizing the creation of an estate and lives in a locale that isn’t HCOL. But on the other hand he talks about saving a few k per year on a car as an acceleration of his retirement and wants to move to Spain for financial reasons so it’s hard to really know.

I generally don’t care about strangers’ finances because it’s none of my business and I don’t care about strangers, but having read hundreds of his posts here over the year whinging over small things and celebrating returns, etc., it feels like good sport to speculate.

And lest anyone care to speculate about my finances, sufficed to say that I have enough money to retire to a pre-industrial society but raising multiple kids in an HCOL location means my net worth when including lifetime kid liabilities may be negative.
 

Piobaire

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I'm glad you find me so interesting and compelling. I have to admit I'm a complex man. Just think...we might be Outback brothers this fall!
 

Piobaire

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Sometimes it feels like this thread is a Mobius strip.
 

Omega Male

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I think this is the week that the markets get religion around the coronavirus outbreak and we see the start of a sustained downtrend. It’s going to be ugly.
 

Piobaire

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Time to buy triple leverage short funds?
 

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