Will China really rule the world?

[terminat]

I was watching the tv show 24, Day 6 (not particularly gd season) the other day, and there was this one episode with an interesting piece of dialogue, where the main villain says he wants to go to China because 'within 10 years it will overtake the US in every possible way.'

Now I know this is just some tv show, but some of 24's critics believed the statement rang true (although others lambasted it as xenophobic.) I've just finished an economics degree at LSE, London, and most of the lecturers there (who are the brightest guys in the field) think that, just as the 20th century was the "American century," the 21st century will be Chinese-dominated (many don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.)
I mean, the US' economy has been stagnating for years and with this sub-prime debacle it is now appearing close to meltdown, whilst the Chinese economy is growing so fast that it is set to be the largest in the world within a decade or so.
The US itself owes $1 trillion to China in debt, and China now has hoardes and hoardes of American dollars, enough that if it was released all at once, the US economy would be totally wiped out (that's unlikely to happen though.) And also, the dollar - a few years ago it was the gold standard for currency worldwide, yet now its in a precarious state. Wall Street continues to fall.
China also has by far the largest military in the world.

It would be bizarre to imagine a Chinese century - I mean, I love the US, and for as long as I can remember every form of media entertainment (tv, film) that's half-decent has been American. Only Hollywood has the money to produce expensive blockbusters (i.e. $100m+ or more) so that is where the best movies have come from.
Yet all this could soon change - the US economy is in such trouble that the big-budget adaptation of the Hobbit has been put in jeopardy as financiers have gone belly-up, whilst across the industry there has been a lack of interest in making expensive movies. But, whilst Hollywood budgets were collapsing, China's most expensive film, Hero, was produced - at $60m. There's still a gap to be bridged, but will Hollywood become marginalised in the same way that Bollywood is now, with Chinese films instead dominating the globe?

Let me just finish by saying that I am not being a) a racist/xenophobe: I'm not saying that a Chinese-dominated world would be bad, and b) this isn't some kind of sadistic doom prophecy post, its a genuine attempt at some serious discussion.

How do you think the world will shape up in a few years' time, given how current events are progressing?


P.S. I would kindly ask that could we please not move this to the Power & Money section, as I currently have an insufficient post count to view threads there. Thanks

 

[bakerboy]

The US itself owes $1 trillion to China in debt, and China now has hoardes and hoardes of American dollars,

It already does that is why USD can be now called USP ( P stands for peso)

If China now called in the loan it would mean one of 2 things:

1) A total collapse of US economy or
3) Third World War

 

[smentz]

well with the total collapse of the us economy comes a total collapse of the world economy. china needs us (their main importer of chinese goods), and we need china (for the szechuan chicken, and future first round draft busts for the NBA)

IMO, the US began its decline about a decade ago. our economy is fragile at best, we dont produce any goods, all we dominate is software and intellectual property, and thats not a good base for a strong economy. our foreign policy pisses off the entire world, and our politicians are about as scummy as a mcdonalds bathroom floor.

in the next decade dont be surprised if you see india, brazil, and china all have stronger economies, better political structures, and enough polution to make the producer of waterworld say "i told you so."

 

[rach2jlc]

I disagree. Since Russia doesn't exist any longer I think that a lot of people need a big, oppositional, and "scary" nation-state to keep us in line here. Al Qaeda wouldn't work for that and so China gets the consolation prize. They are making a lot of progress, certainly, but that is in comparison to where they were and in relation to their gigantic population base. With a bilion people, most of whom live in abject poverty, even a slight cultural or political shift in a positive direction would mean massive growth in a short period.

Nevertheless, in many ways they are still so backwards (culturally as well as in every other way) that I'm not scared yet that my grandchildren someday will be speaking Chinese in school. I see these models where CHina will surpass the US in a decade or two; there is no way that will happen.

Of course, I'm not an historian or an economist and so all of this is just my opinion. Nevertheless, having lived in that part of the world for a while, I'm just saying we ought not be giving up and going Mandarin just yet. We see this all the time; in the 1980's, for example, people were just as scared of Japan and thought that the entire world was going to be speaking Japanese by now (for a dumb example, just check out some of the 1980's and early 1990's major scifi films and see how, in the backgrounds, Japanese language and culture seems to be the norm in a US setting ((Blade Runner, Aliens, Johnny Mnemonic, etc etc)).

If anything, I see the future relationship with China being like that current with Japan; we'll work together because we have no reason (or no economic incentive) to "rule" each other. We would just be eliminating the others major market.

Plus, I wouldn't rule out America yet. It often takes us forever to learn our lesson and usually only then when we are faced with a MAJOR crisis, but I don't think we're going to fall off the top spot anytime soon. Americans are the people everybody likes to make fun of, but when we have to, we can do pretty amazing things with a unity that I don't think will EVER be seen in India, China, or anywhere else.

 

[Maharlika]

It's a possiblity and I'd rate it as a very high probability. China's economic recovery has been brewing since the early 90's and the dragon is just now waking up. The economic reversal we've had in the past WH administration is unbelievable. We had a surplus in the late 90's and now we have a huge deficit.

 

[ratboycom]

China has a history of closing itself off to the world for a long time (see the mid1400s Mandarin take over) and followed by a time of great expansion/exploration/wealth. I think that perhaps they are finally starting to blossom once again, but its just a start. As stated by rach above the country is still backwards. For instance they still rely on coal and coal fires for their iron/steel refinement which leaves the iron/steel still full of imperfections (this historically is why Chinese swords were short and Japanese swords were long and strong). The expansion period China is experiencing right now further stresses their producing ability as the rush is causing even poorer quality control in the factories.

Also I agree about the fact that since the colapse of the USSR the US has needed a new "Rival/Strong enemy." Everyone here already thinks we are the greatest country in the world, if we lacked a rival we would lack direction and start to think that everyone else should work harder for us. Basically we would (I think) become more imperialistic.

If we wanted to do major damage to places like China, a war would never work, but strong economic change would severely hurt them. In comes the NA Union and the Amero money standard. This is not a crazy conspiracy babel, it has been on CNN and had numerous pieces of legislature passed to work its way towards the coming NAU.

 

[a-rock]

within 10 yrs is pushing it a bit... more like 50. no doubt china's progress has been mind-boggling but theres still a ways to go. the sheer size and non-stop growth of the major cities masks the fact that there are still social, environmental, and quality standards issues, not to mention rural areas with hundreds of millions of people still in the third world. this is no different than the industrial revolution in the west, where progress was measured simply by growth. how many widgets you can produce? how tall can you build? how much power can you generate?

if anyone has been to shanghai, they will notice that at night, half the bldgs are pitch black. they're completely unoccupied. but they will still build because they can and hope that future growth bails them out. so far it always has. my firm did a tour of some retail properties in shanghai recently. larger and with all the same high end stores as south coast plaza in orange county. twice the foot traffic. only thing is no one is carrying any shopping bags. the residents there can't afford to shop there themselves. the property mgr said what bails them out are foreigners and the maybe 1% of the population that can afford to shop. that 1% is a huge aggregate number of people and grows each year.

china -- both its people and govt -- still has much to learn about how to manage their newfound wealth and power. they have all the potential but still havent figured out quite right how to be a modern society.

thats my take anyhow...

 

[imageWIS]

What China needs to do, first and foremost is start leveling out the playing field for all their citizens (I mean they are a communist country after all for um, no-God's sake!), better living / happier citizens = better production and forward movement.

Secondly, they really need to find an alternative fuel source, coal just isn't cutting it, for either the environment or as a long term viability.

Jon.

 

[dkzzzz]

After reading all comments, I learned that the future belongs to the country that produce the cheapest hammers and DVD-players in the world. Ok makes perfect sense.
Technological revolutions of 19th and 20th centuries did not teach us to understand macroeconomics any better...

 

[imageWIS]

Originally Posted by dkzzzz

After reading all comments, I learned that the future belongs to the country that produce the cheapest hammers and DVD-players in the world. Ok makes perfect sense.
Technological revolutions of 19th and 20th centuries did not teach us to understand macroeconomics any better...

I have no idea where you got that or frankly what your point is, but I for one welcome our Chinese overlords.

Jon

 

[Viktri]

Originally Posted by imageWIS

What China needs to do, first and foremost is start leveling out the playing field for all their citizens (I mean they are a communist country after all for um, no-God’s sake!), better living / happier citizens = better production and forward movement. Secondly, they really need to find an alternative fuel source, coal just isn’t cutting it, for either the environment or as a long term viability. Jon.

Those filthy communists, eh?

(I'm assuming that part was a joke) China will be finishing their hydro-electric plant probably by 2009, the largest dam in the world (3 gorges).

 

[a-rock]

Originally Posted by Viktri

Those filthy communists, eh?

(I'm assuming that part was a joke) China will be finishing their hydro-electric plant probably by 2009, the largest dam in the world (3 gorges).
lets hope that dam stays up given chinese QC standards!

 

[eg1]

From what I understand of Chinese history, they will express their power on their own terms, and not in ways that might naturally be expected from a Western perspective.

 

[Nugget]

nowhere 'rules' the world.

They will be the biggest super power by a mile..

 

[Homme]

http://www.rense.com/general78/howchina.htm