The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[Girardian]

Beautiful Patek. For yellow gold, I tend to favor true vintage watches -- but that's really an iconic piece.

 

[cyc wid it]

5196's seem to be trading around ~ $15.5k rather than the usual ~ $17-$18k.

 

[rodgers12]

Just offered a Pepsi by my AD.
need to let something go firstly though.
anyone after an Explorer II or Sky Dweller (black). Both unworn

Still waiting for either GMT ?

 

[earthdragon]

Still waiting for either GMT ?

I am sure AD’s will start calling. I would not think that they can afford to sit on inventory
for too long...

 

[Thin White Duke]

Just offered a Pepsi by my AD.
need to let something go firstly though.
anyone after an Explorer II or Sky Dweller (black). Both unworn

Just curious - in what city?

 

[earthdragon]

Just curious - in what city?

NYC

 

[am55]

I am sure AD’s will start calling. I would not think that they can afford to sit on inventory
for too long...

Can't help but feel it's like a game of chicken... if there is a substantial lowering in demand that is likely to last, then the first to offload will be the best off. Would then the more sophisticated dealers offload first? I'm sure @Dino944 has some thoughts/experience on the matter.

 

[Thin White Duke]

NYC

Interesting.
Despite the city lockdown etc I’d be surprised there weren’t still plenty of punters on the lists at this stage to keep sales buoyant for the foreseeable. Will be curious to see how things shake out as time goes on as we’re heading for largely unchartered territory.

 

[earthdragon]

Exactly. I passed on it..... Texted back at 10am and it was taken anyways..

 

[Dino944]

Can't help but feel it's like a game of chicken... if there is a substantial lowering in demand that is likely to last, then the first to offload will be the best off. Would then the more sophisticated dealers offload first? I'm sure @Dino944 has some thoughts/experience on the matter.

Well, I'm in the US, where things have not been going on for as long as they have in China, Italy, or other parts of Europe. Much of what happens depends on how long lockdowns remain in place and how many would be buyers have either been laid off and/or how many self employed would be buyers' businesses have sustained significant losses.

I think it is important to remember, on the sales side we have 2 distinct groups, the ADs and the gray dealers . You are speaking of the second group, gray dealers. I agree with your statement. Overhead will vary depending on if they only have an online store or if they also have a brick and mortar store. A gray with a lot of inventory is probably getting nervous about the slow down in sales, their shops being closed, how much they paid for pieces like Pepsis and Daytonas, and their ongoing costs such as insurance, possible rent. There are probably many shrewd buyers unaffected financially, who are going to hold off and wait until demand and prices have softened significantly. Places maintaining strong prices and holding onto inventory run the risk of market prices being driven down as others unload pieces before they do. Another thing that may happen is that people who buy with the idea of flipping, may find it more difficult to flip a piece in this economy and they panic and start selling well be low what grays are asking. If ADs just got in a shipment of Rolex or other watches, they have to or did pay Rolex or other manufacturers for the inventory. There are grays who have been through this before and survived, but it can be a very tough time for many of them.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Well, I'm in the US, where things have not been going on for as long as they have in China, Italy, or other parts of Europe. Much of what happens depends on how long lockdowns remain in place and how many would be buyers have either been laid off and/or how many self employed would be buyers' businesses have sustained significant losses.

I think it is important to remember, on the sales side we have 2 distinct groups, the ADs and the gray dealers . You are speaking of the second group, gray dealers. I agree with your statement. Overhead will vary depending on if they only have an online store or if they also have a brick and mortar store. A gray with a lot of inventory is probably getting nervous about the slow down in sales, their shops being closed, how much they paid for pieces like Pepsis and Daytonas, and their ongoing costs such as insurance, possible rent. There are probably many shrewd buyers unaffected financially, who are going to hold off and wait until demand and prices have softened significantly. Places maintaining strong prices and holding onto inventory run the risk of market prices being driven down as others unload pieces before they do. Another thing that may happen is that people who buy with the idea of flipping, may find it more difficult to flip a piece in this economy and they panic and start selling well be low what grays are asking. If ADs just got in a shipment of Rolex or other watches, they have to or did pay Rolex or other manufacturers for the inventory. There are grays who have been through this before and survived, but it can be a very tough time for many of them.

what you’re describing is an economic bubble. But instead of tulips, we’re talking about watches.

 

[Thin White Duke]

Does Rolex have any form during previous economically challenging times of lowering MSRP?

 

[Thin White Duke]

Exactly. I passed on it..... Texted back at 10am and it was taken anyways..

Next time proxy for me?
The drinks are on me next time I’m in NYC!!

 

[Dino944]

what you’re describing is an economic bubble. But instead of tulips, we’re talking about watches.

Yes, but I tend to think of a bubble as something that is rather short term, say maybe just a few years. When it comes to Daytonas they have been in short supply and selling for well over their list price for roughly 30 years. Only after the economic meltdown of 2008 did we see prices soften and availability improve from maybe 2009 through roughly 2012 or so and then prices went up again.

Does Rolex have any form during previous economically challenging times of lowering MSRP?

I've never see that happen. Usually, they just maintain the current price for a longer period of time.

 

[earthdragon]

Next time proxy for me?
The drinks are on me next time I’m in NYC!!

Sure thing...What State are you in?