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Dino944

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what you’re describing is an economic bubble. But instead of tulips, we’re talking about watches.
Yes, but I tend to think of a bubble as something that is rather short term, say maybe just a few years. When it comes to Daytonas they have been in short supply and selling for well over their list price for roughly 30 years. Only after the economic meltdown of 2008 did we see prices soften and availability improve from maybe 2009 through roughly 2012 or so and then prices went up again.

Does Rolex have any form during previous economically challenging times of lowering MSRP?
I've never see that happen. Usually, they just maintain the current price for a longer period of time.
 

am55

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what you’re describing is an economic bubble. But instead of tulips, we’re talking about watches.
I'd go further - the sharp rise in the AP Jumbo and a few other pieces just before covid was eerily similar to Bitcoin's final month before the plunge in its speed and ferocity...
 

Omega Male

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I'd go further - the sharp rise in the AP Jumbo and a few other pieces just before covid was eerily similar to Bitcoin's final month before the plunge in its speed and ferocity...
From your lips to God's ears, as they say. We could do with a good old-fashioned panic liquidation. Let's see if all the helicopter money is enough?
 

am55

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From your lips to God's ears, as they say. We could do with a good old-fashioned panic liquidation. Let's see if all the helicopter money is enough?
I have a shopping list, and was mostly in cash for a variety of reasons before this all started. But I would prefer to not have the opportunity to execute the list...
 

bawlin

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Can't help but feel it's like a game of chicken... if there is a substantial lowering in demand that is likely to last, then the first to offload will be the best off. Would then the more sophisticated dealers offload first? I'm sure @Dino944 has some thoughts/experience on the matter.
Similar to cars, watch dealers will take a loss to a wholesaler long before they ever take a loss to a retail customer. There's so much collusion that goes on amongst these guys, mostly in private online chat rooms, and these guys are much more incentivized to liquidate to someone they have a longstanding relationship with, vs. some prick like me who only cares about getting the best deal possible, regardless of whom it's coming from.

With that said, the hobbyist flippers who made a quick ~$1-2k on a couple of Hulks, got arrogant, and started overpaying for other hot stainless timepieces to build up their Instagram following while operating on razor thin margins are going to get wiped out fast. I'm already seeing some very tempting "right place, right price, right time" deals popping up, which is how I ended up with this like-new 116505 I bought for ~$10k below retail+tax.

6E3B7EA0-8C78-4104-90C2-6BD098AD8665.jpeg
 

Ambulance Chaser

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After the Horology House scandal, I'm paranoid about buying a SS Rolex from anyone other than an AD or a well-established gray. Hopefully prices charged by those vendors fall to MSRP within a few months.
 

George Red

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Just so everyone knows, here’s two screen shots of texts I received from the owner of a very large, reputable jewelry store. ADs are starting to hurt. Good - let them. Subsequent texts included pictures of about 10 Rolexes I was offered. I didn’t like any of them, so I passed. This, however, gives you an idea of how ADs are starting to feel the squeeze.
A1EC5A6C-BBAB-4B54-85C5-4D934206043C.jpeg
BE9B66A8-59D6-4794-BFC1-0DEB413343C9.jpeg
 

giuseppe

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The sector at the moment can only stop winning, but it does not lose, for the moment.
Most sectors if they lose ... Let them wait 2 more months.
 

Ambulance Chaser

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It's a start, but kind of like someone telling you, "You can date any Game of Thrones cast member . . . except Emilia Clarke." :) When the white-dialed Daytona hits MSRP, we'll know that ADs have hit rock bottom.
 

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