NFL 2011/2012 Discussion

[edinatlanta]

Brady is the ****.

 

[MetroStyles]



Are you talking about Manning? If so, in the regular season, I may agree, in the post season though, nope. Manning is less than .500 in the playoffs.

Dude, in all honesty, this is such an old school misleading stat. Just like "wins" in baseball for a pitcher. Wins are a team statistic. If Manning threw for 400 yards and went 25/25 in every playoff game, but his defense fucked up and his RB fumbled twice and his special teams had a FG blocked and his team lost, would that be "choking"? You cannot look at just statistics, but you also cannot look at just wins when rating a player. The game is not in the QB's hands on defense or special teams.

I mean, this is one of those issues that is just so polarizing that it's hard to ever convince someone to come over to your point of view, so I don't expect you to.

 

[munchausen]



Dude, in all honesty, this is such an old school misleading stat. Just like "wins" in baseball for a pitcher. Wins are a team statistic. If Manning threw for 400 yards and went 25/25 in every playoff game, but his defense fucked up and his RB fumbled twice and his special teams had a FG blocked and his team lost, would that be "choking"? You cannot look at just statistics, but you also cannot look at just wins when rating a player. The game is not in the QB's hands on defense or special teams.

I mean, this is one of those issues that is just so polarizing that it's hard to ever convince someone to come over to your point of view, so I don't expect you to.

It's such an irrational argument that people hold onto so strongly. Not even when you point out that they are basically saying that Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are better than Dan Marino

 

[edinatlanta]



It's such an irrational argument that people hold onto so strongly. Not even when you point out that they are basically saying that Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are better than Dan Marino

Uh...they are... the great players win championships and go to the postseason. (0)

 

[MetroStyles]



Uh...they are... the great players win championships and go to the postseason. (0)

Hahaha. I love it when Edina joins an argument because it nearly always invalidates the viewpoint he sides with.

 

[edinatlanta]



Hahaha. I love it when Edina joins an argument because it nearly always invalidates the viewpoint he sides with.

Uh, most seasons led league in passing completion, yards, second most career touchdown passes... totally does not prove you are a good QB. Only your team's success determines your quality as a player. Srs.

 

[phreak]

Seattle +15 vs Pittsburgh will move closer to -13 so I'm gonna take it now. There aren't a lot of positive things to say about the Seahawks except that they are at home and are getting a shitload of points. Somehow, this is closer than 15.

NO -7 vs Bears The story of this game will be turnovers and offensive efficiency and I expect the Saints to dominate both categories. Sproles could have a monster game as Payton will trust him more.

Indy +2 vs Cleveland lol this is too funny...the Colts getting points from the Browns, at home. Indy's D always plays better at home. They have shown, at times, that they can stop the run and obviously will be all over McCoy on passing downs. Still have Freeney and Mathis on the outside but now they have Drake Nevis (had an amazing camp and preseason..kid's a beast) inside. Also, Anderson and Brayton have shown that they are effective run stoppers. The secondary should have a much more manageable workload compared to last week. If Collins can get any time, and I expect him to, he can make the throws. The Colts still have great receiving options. However, special teams play could blow up all of this.

Dallas -2.5 @ SF Dallas is coming off of a tough road loss against the Jets. They moved the ball quite effectively for much of the game even without a run game. Look for the Cowboys to get Felix plenty of touches in lots of different ways. Romo will still get his...and SF has a revamped secondary that Romo will pressure all game. Screens, draws, play actions will be used liberally. For the 49ers it all starts with Gore. Dallas will get a lead early forcing Smith to throw more than planned.

Atlanta +3.5 vs Eagles I am higher on Matt Ryan and the Falcon's offense in general than most. Thomas Dimitroff is the real deal and is someone I respect and follow. As long as he is the GM this team will be contenders. Obv they need to get backfield pressure on Mike Vick (the hype machine is still strong here) and not let him buy enough time for DeSean Jackson to burn the defense. Their #1 goal should be to stop the big play and I think they will plan accordingly. The Eagles' secondary is still an unknown to me at this point but is potentially dominant. Ryan will test it all game and it will be critical that they don't fall behind early in this one. Roddy White vs Nnamdi will be a great matchup.

 

[MetroStyles]



Uh, most seasons led league in passing completion, yards, second most career touchdown passes... totally does not prove you are a good QB. Only your team's success determines your quality as a player. Srs.

I would think you are being facetious if you weren't Edina.

I'm intrigued that you think Brandon Jackson and James Starks are better running backs than Barry Sanders. But let's just leave it at that. I don't think we will see eye to eye on this at any point in the near future.

 

[grundletaint]



your honor, i would like to use the "lebron james" defense

 

[munchausen]

Charles Haley, then, is by definition the best player in NFL history.

 

[Nil]



Dude, in all honesty, this is such an old school misleading stat. Just like "wins" in baseball for a pitcher. Wins are a team statistic. If Manning threw for 400 yards and went 25/25 in every playoff game, but his defense fucked up and his RB fumbled twice and his special teams had a FG blocked and his team lost, would that be "choking"? You cannot look at just statistics, but you also cannot look at just wins when rating a player. The game is not in the QB's hands on defense or special teams.

I mean, this is one of those issues that is just so polarizing that it's hard to ever convince someone to come over to your point of view, so I don't expect you to.

Phreak mentioned clutchness, not all time greatness. That assertion is what my statement was predicated upon. If you can't win in the postseason, you're not the most clutch QB of this generation. Sorry.

 

[edinatlanta]



I would think you are being facetious if you weren't Edina.

I'm intrigued that you think Brandon Jackson and James Starks are better running backs than Barry Sanders. But let's just leave it at that. I don't think we will see eye to eye on this at any point in the near future.

I actually am facetious. I remember reading about some bit-player journeyman who somehow has like 6 or 7 rings in one of the leagues because he's not very good but just kept getting picked up by all the right teams .

THAT, is the ******* life.

 

[phreak]



Phreak mentioned clutchness, not all time greatness. That assertion is what my statement was predicated upon. If you can't win in the postseason, you're not the most clutch QB of this generation. Sorry.

Again...I value regular season success much more than the average NFL fan.

And the sample size is small enough, let's take a look at how (un)cluth PM has been in the playoffs recently.

I mean last year vs the Jets, Indy had the lead with like a minute left but the defense gave up a long drive to Mark Sanchez and then Caldwell called a TO to stop the clock (for absolutely no reason i might add) which set up NY's play to put them in FG range. Obviously unclutch by PM there.

In the SB against NO. That was the most lopsided coaching performances...ever, and not just in the SB. And then Indy can't recover a trick onsides kick even when it hits Hank Baskett in the chest. And the int to seal the loss...kinda hard to avoid when the receiver runs the wrong route :/

The previous year Indy entered the playoffs as the hottest (and healthiest) team in football...but ther had to play @ 8-8 SD without LT. Remember what happened? Mike Scifres happened. He gave, without a doubt, the greatest performance ever by an NFL punter. To quote Wiki

In the Chargers' 2009 Wild Card Playoff versus the Colts, Scifres kicked a 67-yard punt and averaged 51.7 yards with six punts. Also, all his punts during the game were inside the Chargers' own 20-yard line, with 4 inside their 10-yard line.[3] Perhap Scifres's best punt of the game was the last, a 52-yard kick launched from the San Diego 47 yard line that bounced out of bounds at the Colts' 1, pinning Indianapolis deep and allowing the Chargers' defense to force the Colts to punt the ball away from the back of their own end zone. Scifres said after the game, "I don't know if you can dream a game like this."

I cannot talk about this game without bringing up Darren Sproles. He absolutely made a mockery of the Indy defense this game. 150 total yards and 2 tds (one being the game winning td) PM threw for 60%, 300 yards, 1 td, 0 ints

The postseason before that, PM threw for 68% 400 yards, 4 tds, and 2 picks in a loss. But again, the story was the defense being absolutely useless giving up nealy 14 yards per attempt.

The Colts won the SB the previous year and ironically, the defense dominated.

Also, you can assume that Indy's run game had <4 ypr and was a non factor while the defense couldn't get the opposing offense off the field. And the strategic decision to punt on 4th and short every time that was started with Dungy and (unfortunately) passed to Caldwell has undoubtedly cost Indy wins

****..I should be doing work right now haha

 

[MetroStyles]



Phreak mentioned clutchness, not all time greatness. That assertion is what my statement was predicated upon. If you can't win in the postseason, you're not the most clutch QB of this generation. Sorry.

Using words like "assertion" and "predicated" do not help mask the fact that your point is based on an undefinable term in "clutchness". Do you mean clutchness as in leading drives down the field with 2 minutes or less? Or what exactly? In your last sentence, you again make a logical fallacy in equating "winning" in the postseason with being "clutch".

Answer me this: are you an "unclutch" QB if you lead your team down the field to take the lead, but leave a minute on the clock, and then the other team completes a couple passes and hits a 50 yard FG to win at the end? It just seems to me that you are obstinately ignoring the fact that football is a team sport. Sure, QB is the most important position, but it still doesn't account for more than 30-40% of a team's success at most.

Only in sports that are individual can you truly attribute clutchness. Tennis, or golf, for example.

In team sports that are more individually-based, such as baseball and basketball, you can also make some arguments for clutchness. For example, Dirk = clutch and LeBron = unclutch would be relatively true because there is so much iso play in the NBA.

However, in sports like football that really require every little piece to work perfectly for success, it is just silly to try to pin clutchness on the final result - a win or a loss. Take for example Tony Romo's first two playoff games:

1) against Seattle. Tony leads a drive in the dying moments down the field. He is on point and is picking apart the Seattle defense. In the end, he bumbles a hold and they lose the game. He was at fault, but it had nothing to do with his skills as a quarterback. In fact he demonstrated clutchness in all the "QB" aspects of the final 2 minutes.

2) against NYG. Tony throws a perfect throw to Patrick Crayton running a mid-length slant route. There is clear space in front of Crayton - it is a surefire 60+ yard TD catch if he holds on and doesn't trip over his own feet. The game would be firmly in the hands of the Cowboys with that TD and Romo would go down as a hero. But of course, Crayton takes his eyes off the football and drops it like a hot potato. Time to punt. No game-sealing TD. All Romo's fault, right? He just doesn't have "it", right? Because of Crayton's misplay.

Look, I am not saying Romo is elite. I don't think he is. I think he is in the 6-11 range or so in terms of best QBs in the league. But trying to assign a "clutchness factor" to him based on playoff wins is just silly. The devil is in the details. Legacies are built on results and results only, no doubt, but intelligent and unbiased analysis of a player's quality is based on the details.

 

[Nil]



Again...I value regular season success much more than the average NFL fan.

Oh, don't get me wrong. Peyton is a fantastic QB. If not the best, certainly top 3 in modern history. I'm not saying all the Colts' issues are on him, as you can see by the Kerry Collins experience on Sunday, the team is **** with Peyton.

Using words like "assertion" and "predicated" do not help mask the fact that your point is based on an undefinable term in "clutchness". Do you mean clutchness as in leading drives down the field with 2 minutes or less? Or what exactly? In your last sentence, you again make a logical fallacy in equating "winning" in the postseason with being "clutch".

Clutch being that you can count on that player to play great when it counts. Usually when a QB plays great, barring an absolute shitshow from the defense (what's up 2009 Packers), that team wins.

Now let's leave the words behind and focus on the stats like the nerds we are.

Here are stats form Peyton's post season:

1999 - L 16-19 TEN: 19-42-45.2%-227-0-0-62.3

2000 - L 17-23 MIA: 17-32-53.1%-194-1-0-82.0

2002 - L 41-0 NYJ: 14-31-45.2%-137-0-2-31.4

2003 - W 41-10 DEN: 22-26-84.6%-377-5-0-158.3
W 38-31 KC: 22-30-73.3%-304-3-0-138.7
L 24-14 NE: 23-47-48.9%-237-1-4-35.5

2004 – W 49-24 DEN: 27-33-81.8%-458-4-1-145.8
L 20-3 NE: 27-42-64.3%-238-0-1-69.3

2005 - L 18-21 PIT:-22-38-57.9%-290-1-0-90.9

2006 – W 23-8 KC: 30-38-L 18-21-78.9%-268-1-3-71.9
W 15-6 BAL: 15-30-50.0%-170-0-2-39.6
W 38-34 NE: 27-47-57.4%-349-1-1-79.1
W 29-17 CHI: 25-38-65.8%-247-1-1-81.8

2007 - L 24-28 SD: 33-48-68.8%-402-3-2-97.7

2008 - L 17-23 SD: 25-42-59.5%-310-1-0-90.4

2009 - W 20-3 BAL: 30-44-68.2%-246-2-1-87.9
W 30-17 NYJ: 26-39-66.7%-377-3-0-123.6
L 17-31 NO: 31-45-68.9%-333-1-1-88.5

2010- L 16-17 NYJ: 18-26-69.2%-225-1-0-108.7

You can find an easier to read version here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/

What it basically says, to me, is that I'm half right and half wrong. This is the first time I've looked in depth at his post season stats and I think his public perception is incredibly hurt by those few terrible games he had. When you can't put up TDs and throw multiple INTs, it's going to hurt your reputation. Ironically, it looks like his SB winning year 2006 was his worst post season performance on average. But yes, he has had some incredible post season performances.