The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[Texasmade]

I wonder what happened to that secret Taiwanese trillionaire. According to him those secret trillionaires were basically richer than Elon Musk and Jeff Bezoz combined.

 

[TheFoo]

I wonder what happened to that secret Taiwanese trillionaire. According to him those secret trillionaires were basically richer than Elon Musk and Jeff Bezoz combined.

Shhhhhhhhh…

 

[TheFoo]

It’s not like everyone had been sitting around, teeth chattering, racked with anxiety over when a new Cintree was going to happen.

Literally zero people gave a ****—until the moment Cartier started selling them again.

 

[Texasmade]

It’s not like everyone had been sitting around, teeth chattering, racked with anxiety over when a new Cintree was going to happen.

Literally zero people gave a ****—until the moment Cartier started selling them again.

In my case, I never knew they existed until it was re-released and I read about the history of it. That was one of the main watches to get me to look at the Cartier catalog other than the Tank Americaine.

 

[dan'l]

By the way, the best Tank is the Normale. Platinum on platinum brushes bricks bracelet is the ultimate watch. White dial of course. Breguet hands. I think it was Newcomer who posted a pink gold version of something very similar last year.

Is this the one?

I‘m not the OP, but I do remember the watch.

 

[ctp120]

Introduced a friend to my AD today. He picked up a Tudor Pepsi GMT.

There were almost no Rolexes in the case. Not a single men’s watch.

 

[chocomallo]

Is this the one?

View attachment 1735517

I‘m not the OP, but I do remember the watch.

I think that was the one. A platinum version of this with Breguet hands would be far superior to the renders TheFoo has posted. A mix of brushed and polished finished on the brancards with brushed bracelet would be far better. The best Tanks all have bracelets.

 

[Dino944]

The very 5070 you mention did not really take-off until after Patek stopped making it.

In fact, the more recent 5170 is on a better trajectory than the 5070–secondary prices for the black dialed and platinum versions meet or exceed original retail, and the white dialed watch with Breguet numerals and pulsometer is suddenly gaining a lot of attention.

The first two years of production on the 5070, it didn't really take off, but after that prices were steady and when released in rose, white gold, or platinum, they were all selling for at least list price or more on the secondary markets, and that was when most Pateks were still available with a 30-35% discount brand new from ADs. I still recall when Lux, Bond & Green in Boston had a 3970J (another watch using a Lemania movement for the chronograph) around 2004/2005 with an MSRP of around $74,000 and they were willing to let it go for $48,500.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by the 5170 is on a better trajectory than the 5070 in the secondary market. The MSRP of a 5170g was I believe $87,000 in 2013. There are a bunch of them on chrono24 with asking prices of roughly $55,000 to $82,000. So it was a far more expensive watch than a 5070, and most examples have depreciated at least somewhat. In platinum they seem to have asking prices of $125K to $135K, but IIRC, they had an MSRP of $100K or more when new.

The 5070J originally had an MSRP of $28,800, and then by the time rose and white gold models were out, the MSRP was in the low to mid 30s. If one looks at Chrono24 5070s seem to range from a low of $72,000 to a high of about $89,000 in gold, and platinum versions have asking prices of over $200K (although, I'm not sure if those are realistic numbers for the platinum model). It just seems that 5070s are selling for more than twice their MSRP, and 5170s are still watches that can be purchased for several thousand less than MSRP. Perhaps in the future their values will go up, but it remains to be seen at the moment.

 

[TheFoo]

The first two years of production on the 5070, it didn't really take off, but after that prices were steady and when released in rose, white gold, or platinum, they were all selling for at least list price or more on the secondary markets, and that was when most Pateks were still available with a 30-35% discount brand new from ADs. I still recall when Lux, Bond & Green in Boston had a 3970J (another watch using a Lemania movement for the chronograph) around 2004/2005 with an MSRP of around $74,000 and they were willing to let it go for $48,500.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by the 5170 is on a better trajectory than the 5070 in the secondary market. The MSRP of a 5170g was I believe $87,000 in 2013. There are a bunch of them on chrono24 with asking prices of roughly $55,000 to $82,000. So it was a far more expensive watch than a 5070, and most examples have depreciated at least somewhat. In platinum they seem to have asking prices of $125K to $135K, but IIRC, they had an MSRP of $100K or more when new.

The 5070J originally had an MSRP of $28,800, and then by the time rose and white gold models were out, the MSRP was in the low to mid 30s. If one looks at Chrono24 5070s seem to range from a low of $72,000 to a high of about $89,000 in gold, and platinum versions have asking prices of over $200K (although, I'm not sure if those are realistic numbers for the platinum model). It just seems that 5070s are selling for more than twice their MSRP, and 5170s are still watches that can be purchased for several thousand less than MSRP. Perhaps in the future their values will go up, but it remains to be seen at the moment.

Let’s look at the most desirable (non-limited) versions of each model: the 5070P / 5070G and the 5170P / 5170G with Breguet numerals.

In its last year of production (2009), the 5070P retailed for $87K. The 5170P retailed for $96K in its last year of production (2019).

Asking prices for the 5070P are in the $210-230K range. That is a 8% CAGR over 12 years (using $220K, the current average price). Asking prices for the 5170P are currently ~$135K—a 19% CAGR over two years. Looking back at prices in 2011 for the 5070P, two years after it had been discontinued, sellers were asking ~$110K. That’s a 12% CAGR.

In short, the 5170P’s price trajectory is decisively outperforming the 5070P on both an apples-to-apples relative time period basis and when looking at annual growth since each watch’s respective discontinuation.

Now let’s compare white gold versions. The 5070G ended production with a $60K retail price in 2008. Today’s asking prices are $75-90K. That’s a 2% CAGR using the mid-point. When you look at prices four years after discontinuation ($65-70K), it’s a 3% CAGR. This is nominal appreciation, barely keeping up with inflation.

In contrast, the 5170G ended production in 2017 with a $83K retail price (not $87K) and current asking prices (four years later) are $75-100K. The mid-point shows only marginal growth. However prices were as low as $60-65K a couple years ago, so it’s a more complicated story. If one believes prices have merely corrected from a dip and future growth will slow to GDP-like, the difference in trajectory versus the 5070G is de minimus. However, if one believes the market trend will continue upward from the low point (maybe collectors have gained perspective), the 5170G’s trajectory is more promising. The pricing disparity in the secondary market would certainly seem to imply that collectors don’t all agree on where things are going. Regardless, I think it’s fair to say that the 5170G is currently the watch carrying more momentum.

To summarize: the 5170 clearly outperforms in platinum, but relative trajectory is debatable when it comes to white gold.

 

[chocomallo]

Let’s look at the most desirable (non-limited) versions of each model: the 5070P / 5070G and the 5170P / 5170G with Breguet numerals.

In its last year of production (2009), the 5070P retailed for $87K. The 5170P retailed for $96K in its last year of production (2019).

Asking prices for the 5070P are in the $210-230K range. That is a 8% CAGR over 12 years (using $220K, the current average price). Asking prices for the 5170P are currently ~$135K—a 19% CAGR over two years. Looking back at prices in 2011 for the 5070P, two years after it had been discontinued, sellers were asking ~$110K. That’s a 12% CAGR.

In short, the 5170P’s price trajectory is decisively outperforming the 5070P on both an apples-to-apples relative time period basis and when looking at annual growth since each watch’s respective discontinuation.

Now let’s compare white gold versions. The 5070G ended production with a $60K retail price in 2008. Today’s asking prices are $75-90K. That’s a 2% CAGR using the mid-point. When you look at prices four years after discontinuation ($65-70K), it’s a 3% CAGR. This is nominal appreciation, barely keeping up with inflation.

In contrast, the 5170G ended production in 2017 with a $83K retail price (not $87K) and current asking prices (four years later) are $75-100K. The mid-point shows only marginal growth. However prices were as low as $60-65K a couple years ago, so it’s a more complicated story. If one believes prices have merely corrected from a dip and future growth will slow to GDP-like, the difference in trajectory versus the 5070G is de minimus. However, if one believes the market trend will continue upward from the low point (maybe collectors have gained perspective), the 5170G’s trajectory is more promising. The pricing disparity in the secondary market would certainly seem to imply that collectors don’t all agree on where things are going. Regardless, I think it’s fair to say that the 5170G is currently the watch carrying more momentum.

To summarize: the 5170 clearly outperforms in platinum, but relative trajectory is debatable when it comes to white gold.

LOL. This is the sort of intensely detailed analysis that robinMA was just admiring. I can only imagine the sort of projections you pump as an investment banker. Enjoy those fat bonuses while they last. I’ll take my chances with Richemont trash.

 

[St1X]

What is all this talk about Patek's movement innovation?!
It's all centuries old approach. The only company out there that actually has a history of movement innovation is Seiko.
The so called movement innovation is an evolution, not revolution.

 

[RobinMA]

LOL. This is the sort of intensely detailed analysis that robinMA was just admiring. I can only imagine the sort of projections you pump as an investment banker. Enjoy those fat bonuses while they last. I’ll take my chances with Richemont trash.

I asked about a lot of things, as I want to learn from him.

 

[Journeyman]

Watches like the Gilbert Albert asymmetric Pateks from the 1950s or the 2499 Perpetual calendar produced from about 1950 to 1985 (and from what I read only about 350 were made) are truly rare pieces. This is especially true because when they were new buyers weren't looking at their watches as potential assets and they didn't keep them safes in the shipping packages. They actually wore them. So finding vintage watches in like new or excellent condition, especially with box and papers isn't easy.

Very true, and it's worth noting that in past decades (with very, very few exceptions), men only had one or, at the most, two watches (perhaps an everyday watch and a dress watch). So, as you say, watches didn't get stored away or locked up, because they weren't part of a "collection" that hardly received any wear.

Speaking of collecting watches, I think it was the late Walt Odets who wrote about a "grail watch". Odets' considered that a grail couldn't just be expensive - because then someone with a lot of money could easily obtain such a watch. Rather, it had to be genuinely difficult to obtain by anyone, perhaps because it was produced in very limited numbers, or perhaps because it was made a long time ago.

[Edit: Actually, I think it was Chuck Maddox, not Walt Odets. Chuck's referred to the rather uncommon Mark V Speedmaster as his "holy grail" and the term stuck.]

"In the grand scheme of things, watches are incredibly trivial and need to do nothing more than make you happy."

It's really just that simple.

Entirely agree, and I think that a lot of people tend to forget, or overlook that. Almost everyone (including me) gets caught up in the hype from time to time, and thinks that they need something, rather than just wanting something.

You're SOL for the EW 321 and 50th Silver Snoopy from the Omega boutique now unless you become a whale in very short order.

In Australia, you can still order the Ed White 321, but you will be waiting a while (something like 12 months, I think) to get it. However, even though the 50th anniversary Snoopy Speedmaster isn't a limited edition, the Omega boutiques in Australia aren't taking any more orders at the current time as the waitlist blew out to a couple of years, or perhaps even more.

View attachment 1735317

Nice! No dot over 90 - replacement bezel?

This reminds me of the early days of SF where people would make fun of the costume-wearing people on Fedora Lounge. Seems like you are picking and choosing which anachronisms you enjoy. I'm down with Lange's fusee and chain. I have no interest in Seiko's spring drive. Lange's flat coils perform better than most watches with Breguet overcoils. It seems super weird to take a largely pointless hobby that is largely about aesthetic choices (or, in some case like mine, fascination with tiny outdated mechanical machines) and trying to pretend that some preferences are objectively superior. In other words, there is no need to watch kink shame when you are part of the same community.

I think this is a really good point.

There's an inherent contradiction in collecting objects that are, nowadays, an entirely unnecessary and anachronistic accessory and yet criticising certain watch brands for not being technologically innovative.

If technological innovation was such an important feature in watches, we'd all be wearing Grand Seikos with spring drive movements, or Seikos with the solar-charging dial and the "sleep" feature (recently adopted, decades after Seiko created them, by Cartier and FP Journe respectively) - or, of course, we'd all be wearing Apple watches (quelle horreur!).

 

[am55]

I asked about a lot of things, as I want to learn from him.

They're thinking about it the wrong way. If you had taken Foo's 2009 $87k, sat on it for a year or two, then invested it in Bitcoin at $1, it'd today be worth $3,725,183,400. If instead you had taken the watch worth $96K and sat on it for 3 years, then invested it in Bitcoin at $1, you'd have ended with $4,110,547,200. In both cases, you could have cleaned out the vintage market of every single Patek of any model and still have plenty of change leftover for your maxiyacht, an AP x Marvel collab piece, some hastily drawn monkeys at a yacht club, and the criminal defense legal teams. No need to be all boomer about it like Foo. To the moon!

 

[am55]

I wonder what happened to that secret Taiwanese trillionaire. According to him those secret trillionaires were basically richer than Elon Musk and Jeff Bezoz combined.

@Riva they want you back in the thread