Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser
But you can make this claim about any
position. LT is probably the easiest position to project from college to the pros, but you still get the occasional Tony Mandarich or Robert Gallery.
Originally Posted by ConcernedParent
Really? Especially with a pro-ready QB like Luck, why wouldn't you pick the most touted prospect for the most important position on your team? It's a bigger gamble, but there is a much bigger payoff if you pick correctly.
Originally Posted by Gibonius
Just how many of those Tom Bradys are out there?
Of good NFL QBs (in no particular order)
Tom Brady #199
Peyton Manning #1 pick
Eli Manning #1 pick
Matt Ryan #3 pick
Ben Roethlisberger #11 pick
Tony Romo undrafted
Aaron Rodgers #24
Matt Stafford #1 pick
Phillip Rivers #4 pick
Cam Newton #1 pick
Sam Bradford #1 pick
I'm sure I missed some, but pretty high fraction of first round (and especially #1) picks up in there. Lots of first round draft QBs fail horribly, but if you really want to get your franchise QBs, you're more likely to find them in the first round than anywhere else. Franchises don't want to look stupid for taking a failure, but the rewards are big.
OK - first, nobody's calling me to GM their NFL franchise, so take my opinion for what it's worth...
My statement was that I'd rather trade for QB and pick a sure thing.
So if you take the non-superbowl winners off your list, it changes things... of course that's skewed by the fact that Brady won a lot of recent superbowls.
Either way - add back in Brad Johnson (in the 200s) and , KUrt Warner and Jeff Hostetler and the list looks a little more balanced. I'm not even saying it can't be a first round or second round pick, but I would rathre trade a #1 pick and not take the QB based on my risk profile.
I think Luck belongs at a team where he won't have to play for 2-4 years (ala Young or Rodgers)