Discussion in 'Fine Living, Home, Design & Auto' started by Bert1568, Jul 18, 2006.
MG Wagon at Laguna Seca. So ridiculous that it's great!
I thought the thinking of greens is that even in coal-powered areas, all electric means you're controlling pollution at fewer points - easier to filter a few plants than a few million cars. And while it's a first-world solution, pollution and oil consumption is more a first-world problem as well; taking the USA off the board solves most of the problem, it would seem.
It used to be taking USA/EU off the board would solve most of the problem, but no longer thanks to emerging market getting their GDP more in line with their population. If carbon capture is a reality, then I guess all electric make sense regardless source makes sense.
I disagree. I'm sold on the idea, but I have a lot of car left right now to do it. I'm convinced the electric will win out, its just too simple a platform not to.
Yes, they need a cheaper model, but they need time to develop one that's viable, not some 50 mile range hooey.
So was the cost for infrastructure around gas stations.
This. Within months you'll be able to travel from Boston to Miami and only stop for 20 minute supercharges. Many stations already exist. Here is Tesla's 2 year plan to create supercharging stations:
Doesn't the super-charge decimate the battery's working life though?
I asked the Tesla SA the same question, the answer was no. He said that in fact the car could be charged faster than 20 mins, but to protect battery life they are managing the flow to prevent damage.
There are going to be a lot of angry Tesla owners out there in 2 years when everyone realizes that the batteries are degrading faster than they thought. And I just don't see how the company can afford to charge all these cars for free. In that sense it really is like a Ponzi scheme where they're building out a big charging network that's paid for based on current sales, but the network itself is going to be a massive drain on cash flow (both in capex now and in operating costs later).
I think we absolutely need companies like Tesla out there pushing others to work on technology and step up their game, but count me in the camp that doesn't think Tesla (specifically) is going to be around in 10 years. If they do make it I'll be happy to eat my words, because it will be just another example of American ingenuity winning out.
Maintaining 60 or 100 charging stations is peanuts. You're point is well taken, but you can make the same argument about car companies providing financing at 0% (this has been happening before '08), etc. Everything is a cash drain unless its not.
The SA told me that charging stations are being funded thru a premium on upgrades at purchase time. I get your point, but you may be overstating it a bit. IMO, its a great move. Tesla realizes that nobody is going to do this for them, so why not lay down infrastructure and provide buyers with another reason electric is the way to go? In another sense, its nice to see a company building infrastructure rather than waiting for government to provide it.
Like I said, after looking at this closely I believe this will be my next car. I'm sold on the simplicity of it.
Lastly, I have not heard any evidence about degradation, can you back that up? The batteries on the 85 model are guaranteed for 8 years. How many people keep a car for 8 years?
That may be another issue, if 8 years is the point at which they risk failure (nothing more than hearsay that it does, mind you) the used market will suffer massively.
Here in the UK the biggest pollutant is the older cars, so much so that the government actually offered you thousands for your old car if you bought a new one. It will be hard from a marketing standpoint to achieve ubiquity when your cars have a perceived expiry date.
If I had any use for a car, I'd definitely consider a Tesla. Not as our only car, but definitely as a daily driver.
On hydrogen, in personal vehicles this is not a real option for a while. You're talking about liquified hydrogen, which needs to be pressurized o a very high extend, thus presenting real dangers. For trucks, this can be 'safely' done, on cars there is a lack of room to do this properly. Then there is also the energy problem, as h2 is expensive to produce in terms of electricity. This can be negated by siphoning off excess capacity on sunny days in countries where there is a huge installed base of solar i.e. Germany. That and your grid has to be able to cope with this.
All in all I don't think the US has the requisite components for both, but with the shale gas you guys have LPG will probably take off and cut the co2 emissions enough until you do.
In the eu we have some of the components ready, the grid and already a drive to install a lot of solar. But lack the development in h2 installations and flexibility to do this fast.
In short, both options are still a long way off but the eu will get there faster by virtue of need, not will as we lack the huge amounts a shale gas..
My 2 cents
I believe a new battery costs $10 - 12k. Yes, its an issue. And its definitely in my thinking. You can actually pre-pay one for that eventuality.
The SA I spoke to said Tesla understand this is an issue, and I agree with his view that they cannot foresee right now what the landscape around batteries will be in 4 or 5 years. It may be status quo, but a system of refurb or replacement may be in place.
Note that will a combustion engine you're dealing with wear as well, its not as if an engine has perpetual life. A new engine costs 4 - 8k, transmission, exhaust, cooling, etc.
The way I calculate it, I'd save 35k in fuel and maintenance over the course of 5 years if fuel prices stay stable. I drive more than most. Service on a Tesla runs about $900 a year. Brakes go 70k miles. No more gas stations.
Ever heard of the term "sunk cost"? We already have those gas stations. Upgrading public infrastructure is a long, tough slog even if the upgrade is really necessary - there are all kinds of industries where this is playing out - mobile phones, roads, business computing, and so on.
I wonder how much it costs to create a supercharging station? If that network is cheap enough to self-fund, I'd feel better about the medium term viability of Tesla/FEV's in the states. I'm talking about a true network, not a scattering of a hundred stations across four million square miles of country
It costs Tesla between $100-$175,000 to install a supercharger: http://techcrunch.com/2013/07/26/in...d-commitments-of-electrifying-road-transport/
Based on that, it definitely seems reasonable to build the network mentioned above over two years. Figure an average of $150k per, figure, what, 100 superchargers? That's 15 million, amortized over two years. Definitely doable, and it definitely helps to remove some of the criticisms of the car.
jeeze the raw numbers on that thing are are kind of unbelievable. 0-60 in 3.4seconds? 186mph electronically limited top speed? 60ft cu cargo space?
i personally like how they used actual rails on the top that can accept normal racks. sometimes performance wagons have those faux rails.
Separate names with a comma.