The soft retail market and other possible indicators of an economic bubble, particularly in tech



ThinkDerm said:

All these amazing sales feels like 2008... sign of imminent recession?

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I noticed the price of pre-owned luxury watches tank before anyone started talking about recession in 2008, and I'm seeing it again.



Joenobody0 said:

I noticed the price of pre-owned luxury watches tank before anyone started talking about recession in 2008, and I'm seeing it again.

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Yah. This is scary.

TRUMP



ThinkDerm said:

All these amazing sales feels like 2008... sign of imminent recession?

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Retail is bad right now. Most retail earnings have been horrendous. Lots of excuses in the earnings reports (Amazon competition, weather, etc.), but it remains a very difficult landscape right now. I agree with you, retail makes it seem like things are recessionary. And yet, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, the government economic statistics are "good."



deepitm said:

Retail is bad right now. Most retail earnings have been horrendous. Lots of excuses in the earnings reports (Amazon competition, weather, etc.), but it remains a very difficult landscape right now. I agree with you, retail makes it seem like things are recessionary. And yet, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, the government economic statistics are "good."

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Record DOW, housing up, etc., - yet I can buy almost anything I want (especially internationally) so cheaply.

Joenobody0 said:

I noticed the price of pre-owned luxury watches tank before anyone started talking about recession in 2008, and I'm seeing it again.

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I can tell you that retail is in the tank, for a variety of reasons. There are a variety of contributing factors:

1) Tech and the VCs that back them have a continuous and exponential growth mindset. The menswear sector is growing, but traditionally, retail is a pretty incremental growth, low margins, business.

2) Retail is hard! I see a lot of people armed with business plans and no real experience in the business, getting funded. There is nothing easier to spend (and lose) than someone else's money. I know successful small retailers, and they just don't operate like tech companies. They work long hours for lean pay, and it's assumed that it's a shoestring budget. There are also dumb little fallacies. For example, good buying is not "buying cool **** we just like". No ******* good retailer is like that. It's traditional marketing, like clienteling, like buying with a specific customer in mind, that keeps boutique businesses above water. And I think that we've seen, from high profile failures lately, that a big social media following doesn't mean ****. It doesn't translate into sales, and it definitely garners zero loyalty, because you never really develop a relationship with your instagram followers.

3) The drive towards the bottom, pricewise, is a killer.

Re. other indicators - I am not sure we are headed to another recession, but the tech industry is set for a correction. Anyone who believes otherwise... good luck to them.



LA Guy said:

Re. other indicators - I am not sure we are headed to another recession, but the tech industry is set for a correction.  Anyone who believes otherwise... good luck to them.

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Do you know who's really in for a major reaming? The vast majority of people who are buying big dollar watches at auction. Those million dollar Daytonas are going to be the death (literally) of someone, when the bubble pops.

Santa Clara County median house price $1 million.

San Mateo County median house price $1.2 million.


Vintage watch bubble, vintage car bubble, etc.- a majority of those buyers/traders will be just fine. Every time a recession hits, tons of studies/articles come out showing that people will skimp on the little things and still spend on luxury items when possible.



Joenobody0 said:

Do you know who's really in for a major reaming? The vast majority of people who are buying big dollar watches at auction. Those million dollar Daytonas are going to be the death (literally) of someone, when the bubble pops.

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there are million dollar daytonas? whaaat?



Akeem said:

there are million dollar daytonas? whaaat?

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Yep, the Paul Newman's are crazy:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...na-sells-for-record-1-1-million-at-christie-s

I expect there have been others.

Wtf. It's a freaking Rolex not a Patek.

deepitm said:

Retail is bad right now. Most retail earnings have been horrendous. Lots of excuses in the earnings reports (Amazon competition, weather, etc.), but it remains a very difficult landscape right now. I agree with you, retail makes it seem like things are recessionary. And yet, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, the government economic statistics are "good."

Click to expand...

Joenobody0 said:

Record DOW, housing up, etc., - yet I can buy almost anything I want (especially internationally) so cheaply.

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What is the DOW though, or housing, really indicate, though? That everything is on the up and up, or that people feel that things are on the up and up? The reason a bubble occurs is because people are stupidly optimistic and unrealistic.



LA Guy said:

What is the DOW though, or housing, really indicate, though?  That everything is on the up and up, or that people feel that things are on the up and up?  The reason a bubble occurs is because people are stupidly optimistic and unrealistic.

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For sure. I think our economy is fundamentally unsound. My job is basically recession-proof (when the economy sucks, more people tend to enroll in professional education programs), but the people I know who don't have a STEM BS or an advanced degree are hurting. The government is pumping money into the economy, keeping it propped up. Who knows what's going on with China?

I'm not a macro economist, but this doesn't "feel" like a very healthy economy. Not to get too political, but I think the appeal of Trump and Sanders suggests that a lot of people feel the same way.



MGoCrimson said:

Wtf. It's a freaking Rolex not a Patek.

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Even Patek isn't "Patek". Their market is softening as well.



Joenobody0 said:

Even Patek isn't "Patek". Their market is softening as well.

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To be fair, the old Rolex triple calendars and chronographs are painfully more beautiful than anything they're making today.