Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Concordia]



What was the tax hit? Is it flat or based on income or the amount transferred?

It was taxed as wage income-- as it would have been if I'd pulled it out after 70.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

I'd shelve the get rich quick books and read books on business valuation, portfolio management, economics and options pricing.

 

[idfnl]



It was taxed as wage income-- as it would have been if I'd pulled it out after 70.

Wage income based on your current income?

 

[Concordia]

Current. There was some discretion about which year to call current, and I think you could split it between two years, but it would have put me in a high tax bracket even without salary and other income. (This was a deal offered in 2009 or so that temporarily eliminated the income cap for Roth eligibility-- not sure if the exact same thing applies today, although there is the "back-door" option.)

 

[concealed]

TWTR is a dog, I can't wait to sell it. I'm trapped at $59, and I have so little conviction that I didn't bother to average down when it was in the 30s.

sell it now, psychological trap you are in to retain it

 

[AriGold]

TWTR a dog? really? other than your buy price what's wrong with it.

 

[idfnl]



sell it now, psychological trap you are in to retain it

It has momentum, thankfully. I think It can get a bit closer to my breakeven.

TWTR a dog? really? other than your buy price what's wrong with it.

The shares have momentum, but the platform has really big problems. It was discussed earlier in the thread. If you want to be in the space, FB looks a much better bet.

 

[idfnl]

Bought PANW, FITB, STML, UL, O, and NVS this morning.

 

[GreenFrog]

I should open an IB account.

 

[idfnl]



I should open an IB account.

Best of breed.


Woo hoo. LOCO popped, took profits.

EPZM and KITE are looking buyable at these levels.



EDIT: took new stakes and EPZM and KITE

 

[amerikajinda]



Best of breed.


Woo hoo. LOCO popped, took profits.

Whoah - that's crazy!!

 

[vinouspleasure]

As the capital markets partner of a consulting firm I was asked to run a yearly session for 20-30 new hires from top universities. I'd start off each session by reading five intraday quotes for IBM and asking each member of the group to predict if the next price movement would be up or down. Then I'd read another five and they'd make another prediction. I'd repeat 10 times and then we'd determine the top 3 stock pickers.

How did the top stock pickers do it? Well, in reality, the stock quotes were created by a random number generator running on my computer. When asked, the top stock picker invariably said "I noticed a pattern" or "I could just feel the direction the stock was going to move".

Obviously, what really happened is that in a group of 30 people, some people were going to do very well and some people poorly along the lines of a normal distribution. Exactly what's happening in this thread.

Are some people in this thread, in this world going to beat the broad index? sure, but it's not going to be because of a book they read, technical or fundamental analysis, it's just luck. And over time, more and more people's returns will revert to the mean (the return of the broad index) and that's when cost comes into play.

My advice, after 25 years on wall st, is to buy broad, low cost bond, equity and international equity indexes from a low cost provider (vanguard comes to mind), weight heavily towards equities when younger, towards fixed income when older and be done with it. and there's an awful lot of research that supports this approach.

 

[amerikajinda]



As the capital markets partner of a consulting firm I was asked to run a yearly session for 20-30 new hires from top universities. I'd start off each session by reading five intraday quotes for IBM and asking each member of the group to predict if the next price movement would be up or down. Then I'd read another five and they'd make another prediction. I'd repeat 10 times and then we'd determine the top 3 stock pickers.

How did the top stock pickers do it? Well, in reality, the stock quotes were created by a random number generator running on my computer. When asked, the top stock picker invariably said "I noticed a pattern" or "I could just feel which the stock was going to move".

Obviously, what really happened is that in a group of 30 people, some people were going to do very well and some people poorly along the lines of a normal distribution. Exactly what's happening in this thread.

Are some people in this thread, in this world going to beat the broad index? sure, but it's not going to be because of a book they read, technical or fundamental analysis, it's just luck. And over time, more and more people's returns will revert to the mean (the return of the broad index) and that's when cost comes into play.

My advice, after 25 years on wall st, is to buy broad, low cost bond, equity and international equity indexes from a low cost provider (vanguard comes to mind), weight heavily towards equities when younger, towards fixed income when older and be done with it. and there's an awful lot of research that supports this approach.

You just won the Internet!

 

[idfnl]



Are some people in this thread, in this world going to beat the broad index? sure, but it's not going to be because of a book they read, technical or fundamental analysis, it's just luck. And over time, more and more people's returns will revert to the mean (the return of the broad index) and that's when cost comes into play.

My advice, after 25 years on wall st, is to buy broad, low cost bond, equity and international equity indexes from a low cost provider (vanguard comes to mind), weight heavily towards equities when younger, towards fixed income when older and be done with it. and there's an awful lot of research that supports this approach.

Your advice is sound but it's not just luck. Some people have an eye for trading, others don't. Over the course of time you find out and you outperform, revert to the mean or under-perform. The latter 2 means you should just buy broad based and spend more time with your family. I've personally succeeded trading, but to me its more of a hobby. I like the game too much to just hang up my ticker and buy VTI which has averaged 6% annually since 2001.

I bought DIS and HD pre-market.

 

[GreenFrog]

Idfnl, you should pursue a career in trading on Wall Street.

All the firms would be lining out the door to pay you handsomly with your self-proclaimed trading prowess.

--

In other news, AAPL down 2+%!