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Programming is saturated at the lower end, where you're basically a code-monkey. There's no real barrier to entry for programming - which means there's a lot of people who woke up one day and decided that they're programmers but 90% of them are terrible at it.
You can tread water if you want to, but eventually it will catch up to you and you will become unemployable. I would say that you have to keep up in all professions if you want to be good at your job, but in IT, there are very clear markers as to whether you are keeping up or not.