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2016 MLB Season Thread - Page 274

post #4096 of 5149
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

Amazing game last night. Hosmer almost single-handedly saved the Royals' season by working the count, hitting a triple, and heading home on a slow chopper up the middle to score the tying run.

Question for all the sabermetricians out there. Baseball conventional wisdom is that late in a tie game with no outs and a man on first base, you sacrifice the man over to second base. Both teams did this reflexively. I've read that conventional wisdom is wrong and that you are statistically better off not trading an out for a runner in scoring position. Is conventional wisdom wrong? Does it depend on who is at the plate?

It is wrong. Having 33% fewer opportunities to score is not worth being 25% closer to home.
post #4097 of 5149
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post


It is wrong. Having 33% fewer opportunities to score is not worth being 25% closer to home.

 

More pertinent here would be the probability of scoring on a hit from 1st as opposed to 2nd. 

post #4098 of 5149
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

More pertinent here would be the probability of scoring on a hit from 1st as opposed to 2nd. 

I think that's the best way to look at it. Probability of scoring from from 1st with no outs as opposed to 2nd with 1 out.
post #4099 of 5149
Thread Starter 
Point is there aer a whole bunch of ways to show how it is wrong
post #4100 of 5149

Because I'm not ready to let it go yet... here is Derek Jeter's post-career endeavor! 

 

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/

 

"Introducing The Players’ Tribune, a new media platform that will present the unfiltered voices of professional athletes, bringing fans closer to the games they love than ever before. Founded by Derek Jeter, The Players’ Tribune aims to provide unique insight into the daily sports conversation and to publish first-person stories directly from athletes. From video to podcasts to player polls and written pieces, The Tribune will strive to be “The Voice of the Game.”"

post #4101 of 5149
post #4102 of 5149
What a great game though! Sucks for A's fans but the baseball gods are loving KC nod[1].gif
post #4103 of 5149
Who to root for tonight? Jeez which shitty team do I despise less… the Giants or the Pirates? I could actually be happy to see SF win a game if they beat Shitsburg the same way KC beat Oakland last night!
post #4104 of 5149
I'm rooting for Pittsburgh. I want the Tigers friday game to be at 3:30 instead of noon if the Giants win
post #4105 of 5149
Looks like Buctober is not going to last very long this year. (Yes, they are calling it Buctober in Pittsburgh.)
post #4106 of 5149
That's delicious considering the Buccaneers went there and beat the Steelers this weekend
post #4107 of 5149
I hope the Giants didn't use up all their runs, not to mention tiring Bumgarner unnecessarily.
post #4108 of 5149
12-3, Orioles. What a disaster.

Suddenly, what Porcello does or does not do becomes all important.
I'm confident that Verlander and Price can get the job done.
post #4109 of 5149
THE FAPPENING IS ON THE MOUND.
post #4110 of 5149
and, per twitter, in the stands.
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