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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 165

post #2461 of 4952
I've held AGNC for a while now and it has done well for me.

Dividend payouts have dropped a bit and price has gone up...so the yield is down. But the price appreciation has been good to me (most of my shares were probably $26-$28) and there have been a bunch of fat dividends in there so it would have to get hit pretty bad at this point for me to be in trouble.
post #2462 of 4952
How do you feel it will behave when the environment changes and yields begin to increase? I'm in the same dilemma for the bond funds I hold, however the advantage is that as they turn over bonds their payout will increase.
post #2463 of 4952
ARR has been doing very well for me. The monthly dividends are nice, the stock has a small beta so volatility is low, and my shares have actually appreciated quite a bit, bolstering my (unrealized) gains even more. But again, thinking about selling before July's ex-dividend date. I think the share price is going to drop dramatically (more than the actual value in dividend distributions). Then I'll pick up shares again.
post #2464 of 4952
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

ARR has been doing very well for me. The monthly dividends are nice, the stock has a small beta so volatility is low, and my shares have actually appreciated quite a bit, bolstering my (unrealized) gains even more. But again, thinking about selling before July's ex-dividend date. I think the share price is going to drop dramatically (more than the actual value in dividend distributions). Then I'll pick up shares again.
i bought shares of ARR at around 6.80, why do you think they will drop?
post #2465 of 4952
Quote:
Originally Posted by ihambrecht View Post

i bought shares of ARR at around 6.80, why do you think they will drop?

It's just a hunch, but it's been a while since the share price has appreciated so much, so quickly, so consistently, day-after-day the past week or so. I think current shareholders are going to take profits after ex-dividend. So much so that you'll actually be better of selling before it goes ex-dividend, missing the dividend payment, and picking up the shares at a discount and then holding onto it to get the next dividend.
post #2466 of 4952
Earnings are probably going to disappoint a lot this time around. Def. going to minimize my exposure to the market.
post #2467 of 4952
It is questionable how AGNC might handle a changing rate environment and honestly I don't know the answer to that question.

On one hand, I feel that rates move together...if their borrowing rates go up, eventually the rates on the mortgages they are buying will also go up. The real question is how they will handle the lag time in the transition, especially since they have to keep paying out most of their earnings in dividends.

Will be interesting to see what happens to the stock price...the last dividend was lower than the previous handful of dividends and yet the price has gone higher. Will further cuts to dividends drive the price down (thus keeping yield high for new entrants) or will the price stay in the uppper-mid 20's to low 30's and just drive the yield down as people continue to hold it with the expectation that they will successfully navigate the changing rate environment and bring dividends back up.
post #2468 of 4952
I'm interested to see as well and for the same reason.
post #2469 of 4952
aapl back up to $611 today.

I'm selling out at that price too.

How much you guys gonna buy back in at?
post #2470 of 4952
^^ Why all the certainty around aapl?
post #2471 of 4952
Really no certainty. I'm betting on it going down after earngings.
post #2472 of 4952
ARR just announced it's offering 40 million additional common shares. It's down 2.3% AH and I just sold my position. With AAPL and ARR now gone, my portfolio is like 15% of what it used to be.
post #2473 of 4952
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

ARR just announced it's offering 40 million additional common shares. It's down 2.3% AH and I just sold my position. With AAPL and ARR now gone, my portfolio is like 15% of what it used to be.

That's what REITs do...they can't withhold earnings so to raise capital, they have to offer more shares. If they are raising capital for a good reason, there is no reason to bail...the benefits from more capital will outweigh the small dilution.
post #2474 of 4952
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

That's what REITs do...they can't withhold earnings so to raise capital, they have to offer more shares. If they are raising capital for a good reason, there is no reason to bail...the benefits from more capital will outweigh the small dilution.

Yeah, well the last time this happened, which was around March, shares fell around 8% I think. It's sitting stable at -2.3% AH, but we'll see what happens when the market opens.

I'm kinda ticked I missed AAPL's small rally today : /
post #2475 of 4952
I've held AAPL since I ran a full DCF on it about a year ago.... I was always getting pissed I was missing rallies up and didn't think it could go any higher. But I used very conservative assumptions (growing at about a third of their average growth rate since they released the iPod in 2001) and still got a valuation of $750.

Personally, I have no interest in their products. But I have to admit that they've got a fantastic business model - they've got a simple lineup of easy-to-use and well-designed products, and since most people are pretty computer-illiterate they're more than willing to buy a well-marketed premium product.
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