NBA 2016-2017 Season Thread

Originally Posted by Brothersport

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Haaaaaaters come out and playyyyyyyyyyy.

The-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

this is an old argument and it comes down to the essential fallacy of trying to analyze basketball using statistics. it makes for interesting arguments, for sure, but i'd say that if 80% of the best basketball minds in the world agree on something and a statistical analysis by a couple of geeks with a PC disagree ... it's probably not the GMs who are at fault.

Originally Posted by Brothersport

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Uhh it's because they lost the player around whom their entire offensive system revolves.

Pretty obvious that the Heat can compete w/ anybody if their big 3 is healthy, but if not, they don't have a chance against elite teams.

Also shows Miami is very thin without their core. Last night against the Knicks was a good example of bad coaching as well... You have 3 other players ball-watching not moving on offense when either Lebron or Wade have the ball. There were a few sequences when Lebron just played solo ball attempting to draw fouls while his teammates just watched. As a coach you want movement in players as well as the ball, and Spoelstra conducted very little of this in the 2nd half. Kinda plays into that Abbott article about trying to bail your team out with so called "clutchness"

Regarding that article... stats don't explain everything.
Abbott says this:

But not because stats are better. But because this is a tricky -- and at least in terms of sports, important -- question. We should answer this with the best evidence we can get our hands on. In my mind, the final analysis would come from video, which captures the full complexity of the game. But that video should be of good and bad plays. And that video should consider many candidates, including Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and the like -- not just the assumed king.

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He just contradicts himself. He says stats are better, but in his mind he would want analysis from video.

There's a reason why people want the ball in his hand. It's not about just winning the game with 1 shot on the line. It's about the ability to create a shot with little to work with. I don't see a lot of people in the league with the ability to win a game on the line, with very little time left, and pull off a shot with the defense all over you time and time again. Even if it takes 100+ attempts its still not bad with 31% success rate. On that list he's still the person with the most success despite having the most attempts.

I think I need to post a kobe vid for brother's ignorant self

Originally Posted by foodguy

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this is an old argument and it comes down to the essential fallacy of trying to analyze basketball using statistics. it makes for interesting arguments, for sure, but i'd say that if 80% of the best basketball minds in the world agree on something and a statistical analysis by a couple of geeks with a PC disagree ... it's probably not the GMs who are at fault.

you can use advanced stats, but proving someone is not so clutch is just a waste of those stats and energy.

using statistical analysis is better used to extract value for filling up roster spots in this situation and creating situational plays. the dallas mavericks and spurs obviously do it. the way the spurs do it is amazing though because the seem to get value players from nowhere.

its like modern defensive statistic analysis in baseball now - where the teams obviously use it, but its all kept secret - (the formulas and ratings) so there's no standard other than the stat geek generated stuff in fantasy leagues.

the top teams use the analysis in basketball for offense and defense but its all secret/non standardized.

the celtics actually do zone shooting percentage per player. thats why you see baby davis always take those 18 footers from basically two spots on the floor and marquis daniels post up even when a guy is taller than him - they set up the plays and have the assigned players shoot it from their highest zone ratings.. then if it doesn't go in they go right back to defense (and abandon trying to get offensive rebounds) - because the advance stats trend is that offensive rebounding is a low percentage gamble if you have a great defense.

my wife's consultancy firm has been recently tapped by the knicks to generate these kind stats/analysis. it kind of shows how far behind the knicks are in the game if they are only just now using stats like this.

Trying to quantitatively measure "clutch shooting"??? whatever you say, ESPN. I'll go ahead and go with this guy anyway...
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Not that many people get swarmed like Kobe in the final seconds of a game. Pretty ridiculous to expect a high FG % when you have 2 or 3 guys all over you.

Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto

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Not that many people get swarmed like Kobe in the final seconds of a game. Pretty ridiculous to expect a high FG % when you have 2 or 3 guys all over you.

BIG point right here.

yup, wouldn't want this guy to be taking the final shot for my team
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Originally Posted by sexandcandy

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yup, wouldn't want this guy to be taking the final shot for my team
dude sucks...
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TIP: to embed Youtube clips, put only the encoded part of the Youtube URL, e.g. eBGIQ7ZuuiU between the tags. The more I think about it, the more marsupialed that article is. It's like writing an article about who the best walk-off baseball hitter is, and saying "Not so fast my friend....they failed 7 out of 10 times when at the plate in the bottom of the 9th"

Originally Posted by embowafa

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The more I think about it, the more marsupialed that article is. It's like writing an article about who the best walk-off baseball hitter is, and saying "Not so fast my friend....they failed 7 out of 10 times when at the plate in the bottom of the 9th"
thats a good analogy. that article was the equivalent of statistical masturbation fail... i hate the lakers all the same, but its like how baseball stat heads make fun of jeter.

I'd bet my left testicle that if you give all those clutch shots to the other 98% of other players in the league today and the percentage would be much, much lower. Kobe made 36 and missed 79, that is 31%. They should gather data of players that has shot even 50% (58 clutch shots) of the shots Kobe took and then run an analysis on that. Hell I'd even be interested in seeing what percentage of players that has taken at least 30 shots in the last 24 seconds and what percentage are they shooting at. I'd be interested to see Michael Jordans stats, I highly doubt he is close to 50% but who knows.

the whole deal is...these 'haterz' in the media and nerdz who hate on kobe doing this exhaustive research on him, just shows how much Kobe affects their lives.

if they really hated him, they would just ignore kobe. but they CANT

move over, blake griffin..you've been bested
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Originally Posted by RFX45

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I'd bet my left testicle that if you give all those clutch shots to the other 98% of other players in the league today and the percentage would be much, much lower. Kobe made 36 and missed 79, that is 31%. They should gather data of players that has shot even 50% (58 clutch shots) of the shots Kobe took and then run an analysis on that. Hell I'd even be interested in seeing what percentage of players that has taken at least 30 shots in the last 24 seconds and what percentage are they shooting at. I'd be interested to see Michael Jordans stats, I highly doubt he is close to 50% but who knows.
thats actually a really bad bet. its like betting against the field. plus i think there was the article (by the same troop guys) that shows the carmelo anthony/dirk nowitski are the statistical best clutch players. it just shows that statistics are not an ideal tool for analysis in "clutch" situations. it never was for baseball (the ultimate sport to use stats) and it won't be for basketball. its better just to have raw numbers + experience in clutch situations. hence the typical guys you think are clutch: jordan/J. west/kobe/bird/reggie miller kind of players... they did it the most and have the most winners.

Originally Posted by LawrenceMD

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thats actually a really bad bet. its like betting against the field. plus i think there was the article (by the same troop guys) that shows the carmelo anthony/dirk nowitski are the statistical best clutch players.

That's actually a really bad analogy. Ever notice that in the beginning of the baseball season players start off with like 400 batting averages? The high averages gradually decline as the at bats start increasing.

No way Dirk and Melo have taken as many last second shots as Kobe.