SF Fantasy Baseball League 2009

Millwood won't keep this up. Kinsler contributes in a lot of categories, and our league is shallow enough that there are pitchers to be had as free agents at this point. In a very deep league where there is no quality starting pitching to be had and more roster slots to fill, I could see it.

Originally Posted by Brian278

Click to expand...

Millwood won't keep this up. Kinsler contributes in a lot of categories, and our league is shallow enough that there are pitchers to be had as free agents at this point. In a very deep league where there is no quality starting pitching to be had and more roster slots to fill, I could see it.
Kinsler also has a history of sitting down injured a lot and contributing nothing. It's a risk. Especially since he's playing fairly mediocre ball right now. Millwood hasn't given any indication that he's slowing down or about to "lose it". Our league is not that shallow. Especially with me threading my pitching rotation 3-4 days a week. I am basically playing with 5-8 more players than the rest of you. There is nobody on the waivers of Millwood's caliber.

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

Click to expand...

Kinsler also has a history of sitting down injured a lot and contributing nothing. It's a risk. Especially since he's playing fairly mediocre ball right now. Millwood hasn't given any indication that he's slowing down or about to "lose it".

Our league is not that shallow. Especially with me threading my pitching rotation 3-4 days a week. I am basically playing with 5-8 more players than the rest of you.

There is nobody on the waivers of Millwood's caliber.

An idea you got from me last year when I pummeled you in pitching twice.

Originally Posted by Steve B.

Click to expand...

An idea you got from me last year when I pummeled you in pitching twice.
Uh... you did not pummel me in pitching last year Mr. Shortmemory. I've been threading my pitchers since I started playing fantasy baseball. Don't be mad that I outwork you, loser. My team this year is different than my team last year, thus my strategy is different. I don't have as many dominant pitching studs this year. (thought I did, but it didn't turn out that way) So I am putting in the work.

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

Click to expand...

Kinsler also has a history of sitting down injured a lot and contributing nothing. It's a risk. Especially since he's playing fairly mediocre ball right now. Millwood hasn't given any indication that he's slowing down or about to "lose it". Our league is not that shallow. Especially with me threading my pitching rotation 3-4 days a week. I am basically playing with 5-8 more players than the rest of you. There is nobody on the waivers of Millwood's caliber.
No indication except he's 34 and has posted +5.00 ERAs that last two years, however much stock you put in that (and I put some stock in it). And a ridiculous home ERA that looks pretty unsustainable to me, a lowish BABIP and what I'm guessing, based on his WHIP, is a pretty good strand rate. And he's averaging way more pitches per start than he ever has before even as his K rate has come down. Other than that, nope, no indication at all. There are some guys I would pick up if I didn't like my starting pitching so much as is, but I'd rather not give anybody any good ideas.

Kinsler is THE best at his position and a 5-cat contributor. Millwood is solid, but definitely not worth the price. You're right that nobody on waivers is as good as millwood, but Kinsler demands more than a mediocre pitcher.

Stewart is an afterthought at best; a player with one nice stretch.

Wow. My team is awful.

^^^I like Utley better from here to the end of the season, even if Kinsler ends up with a higher overall season rank.

Originally Posted by Brian278

Click to expand...

^^^I like Utley better from here to the end of the season, even if Kinsler ends up with a higher overall season rank.

I can see where you're coming from. They're pretty damn close. I might take Utley too - that Phillies lineup is nasty.

Originally Posted by edinatlanta

Click to expand...

Wow. My team is awful.
It's not as bad as you think. You know you can drop Rickie Weeks for some other roster help, right? He's not coming back for the rest of the season. Also, you can move other players on the DL that are coming back to your DL slot, and use other players in there place until they come back. You need SBs, badly, and there's always SBs to be had as free agents. You need more starting pitching for Ks and wins but 3 of the guys you've got are studs, and you've got two of the best closers and another part time closer with good ratios. There's at least one or two guys out there that would definitely help. You're going to have to read around a bit to figure out who, though. You're lineup features Bay, Texeira, Kinsler, and Dunn...you really shouldn't be this far behind. Soto is coming around. You definitely have something to work with, but you apparently just have no ability to adjust. With somebody with experience running it you'd have had a pretty good shot at the playoffs. You still might if you start paying attention.

Originally Posted by WhateverYouLike

Click to expand...

Kinsler is THE best at his position and a 5-cat contributor. Millwood is solid, but definitely not worth the price. You're right that nobody on waivers is as good as millwood, but Kinsler demands more than a mediocre pitcher. Stewart is an afterthought at best; a player with one nice stretch.
Kinsler is not the consensus best 2b in the league. He has been statistically so far, but to dismiss Utley, Pedroia, and etc. would be a mistake. Kinsler may very well be the best 2B for the first three months of every year, But he is historically a 2nd half disappointment. Usually because of injury, but also because after the all-star break, he gets worn out. look at his career splits. April-June / July to October 51 HR / 19 HR 288 Hits / 201 hits 193 Runs / 122 runs 158 RBI / 77 RBI 49 SB / 27 SB Thats a pretty big average dropoff to swallow after the end of this month. Unless you already expect it to happen. Which I do.

Drop Weeks, drop Gordon, put guillen on the DL. That gives you 3 spots to play with. Pick up Scott Rolen or Ian Stewart to replace Edwin Encarnacion.

Take my trade. You know you want to

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

Click to expand...

Kinsler is not the consensus best 2b in the league. He has been statistically so far, but to dismiss Utley, Pedroia, and etc. would be a mistake. Kinsler may very well be the best 2B for the first three months of every year, But he is historically a 2nd half disappointment. Usually because of injury, but also because after the all-star break, he gets worn out.

look at his career splits.

April-June / July to October
51 HR / 19 HR
288 Hits / 201 hits
193 Runs / 122 runs
158 RBI / 77 RBI
49 SB / 27 SB

Thats a pretty big average dropoff to swallow after the end of this month. Unless you already expect it to happen. Which I do.

That's pretty deceptive use of stats. He's played 285 games pre-break, and 157 games post-break. That's a gigantic number of missed at-bats. Also, his production went UP in 2007.

Utley sure, but Pedroia? Little power and production, and has been disappointing on the basepaths this year. Utley and Kinsler are in a league of their own.

Originally Posted by Brian278

Click to expand...

No indication except he's 34 and has posted +5.00 ERAs that last two years, however much stock you put in that (and I put some stock in it). And a ridiculous home ERA that looks pretty unsustainable to me, a lowish BABIP and what I'm guessing, based on his WHIP, is a pretty good strand rate. And he's averaging way more pitches per start than he ever has before even as his K rate has come down. Other than that, nope, no indication at all.
See Cliff Lee 2008. Maybe its steroids, but I've watched him pitch about six times this year, and he looks like this year's Cliff Lee(ish) player to me. (just as a reference, I'm not saying he's going to dominate everyone, but that he's pitching way above his head, and I think he can do it all year) Numbers without watching people play and making educated guesses based on their playing style, mechanics, and etc. are just numbers. You could spin the raw numbers and come up with the assertion that Ichiro is or is not the greatest baseball player of all time. Thats just kind of dumb and meaningless though. I think Millwood might be sustainable. At least, for "long enough". He's made the shift to "pitching" rather than "throwing" and while that means more pitches, that also means less overall wear and tear on his arm. So far its been working superbly. I guess we'll see. Oh, and by the way, I am currently leading you 5-4.

Originally Posted by WhateverYouLike

Click to expand...

That's pretty deceptive use of stats. He's played 285 games pre-break, and 157 games post-break. That's a gigantic number of missed at-bats. Also, his production went UP in 2007.
Exactly my point. Note though, that that is not a pre- break/post break split. That is three months vs four months split for his career. He's missing time with injuries or wearing down after the first three months of the year on a consistent basis. That is the point. Those numbers are not deceptive in the slightest.