Journeyman
Distinguished Member
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2005
- Messages
- 7,963
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I think your analysis is well written and logical.
I very much hope that things don't get really bad.
Frankly, unless the US and China recover quite quickly, I think that it will be worse.
I'm in Australia and although we are not in lockdown, we have some pretty draconian "social distancing" regulations in place, and cafes and restaurants are not allowed to have people eating in but can only do take-away food and drinks. My city is like a ghost town at the moment. The vast majority of shops are closed, even department stores. The only places that are still doing well are supermarkets and other food stores, and hardware stores. Airlines have essentially shut down and have furloughed tens of thousands of staff. Unemployment has skyrocketed. Our Prime Minister is warning people that this situation could last for the next six months or more.
If businesses are able to sell online they will still continue to get some business but, as @Ambulance Chaser wrote, there's an understandable reluctance to purchase discretionary goods at present as people aren't sure whether they will still be employed in another few weeks or months. They have to prioritise mortgage/rent and other living expenses before fripperies like watches.