The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[Thin White Duke]

? day.
View attachment 1344610

Sweet!
And here I am STILL on the waiting list after 20 months!
Your pic shows the bezel colours really popping. In a lot of pics of this model the red and blues look very dark and I’m hoping if I ever get to the top of the list that they’ll show up like this pic in real life.

 

[Neville Southall]

Sweet!
And here I am STILL on the waiting list after 20 months!
Your pic shows the bezel colours really popping. In a lot of pics of this model the red and blues look very dark and I’m hoping if I ever get to the top of the list that they’ll show up like this pic in real life.

Well, there’s a reason why bezel colors on this model differ from one pic to the next. There are always lighting issues that affect colors differently, BUT ... there’s actually a Mark I and Mark II bezel our there. Mark I is lighter, much brighter. The blue looks almost purple and the red looks almost pink. Mark II is much more subdued. Rolex started its Mark II production in 2019. My watch has a Mark II bezel, but appears brighter in this picture because it was flat underneath the morning sun. Here’s what it regularly looks like:

 

[Dino944]

? day.
View attachment 1344610

Congrats and enjoy it!

Sweet!
And here I am STILL on the waiting list after 20 months!
Your pic shows the bezel colours really popping. In a lot of pics of this model the red and blues look very dark and I’m hoping if I ever get to the top of the list that they’ll show up like this pic in real life.

I'm also still waiting patiently for a new Pepsi. One dealer I was on a list with lost his contract with Rolex, another has no clue if or when they will get one in (or if they will lose their contract as a Rolex Boutique is opening a few blocks away), and another dealer said sometime this year, but not sure when.

 

[Neville Southall]

Congrats and enjoy it!


I'm also still waiting patiently for a new Pepsi. One dealer I was on a list with lost his contract with Rolex, another has no clue if or when they will get one in (or if they will lose their contract as a Rolex Boutique is opening a few blocks away), and another dealer said sometime this year, but not sure when.

Your dealer probably lost his contract with Rolex because they caught him selling watches to grey market dealers at premium prices, instead of just retail. That’s happening all over the country.

 

[Dino944]

Your dealer probably lost his contract with Rolex because they caught him selling watches to grey market dealers at premium prices, instead of just retail. That’s happening all over the country.

I have no idea why they lost their contract. They had been a dealer for many years. I bought a Batman through them in 2015. It was just sitting in the case, before sports models dried up. Then when I called them in the Spring of 2019, they said they no longer sell Rolex. Oh well, I have my name on lists at 1.5 dealers.

 

[Neville Southall]

I have no idea why they lost their contract. They had been a dealer for many years. I bought a Batman through them in 2015. It was just sitting in the case, before sports models dried up. Then when I called them in the Spring of 2019, they said they no longer sell Rolex. Oh well, I have my name on lists at 1.5 dealers.

I don’t know either, but I’m betting that’s it. Anyway, here’s to hoping you get your GMT and that this stupid, crazy supply shortage bullshit stops so people can just buy what they like. ?

 

[Thin White Duke]

Congrats and enjoy it!


I'm also still waiting patiently for a new Pepsi. One dealer I was on a list with lost his contract with Rolex, another has no clue if or when they will get one in (or if they will lose their contract as a Rolex Boutique is opening a few blocks away), and another dealer said sometime this year, but not sure when.

Haha we’re in the same boat then!
I was quoted 18 months to two years’ wait in June 2018 in a shop with which I have no buying history but I think I convinced the SA I was in this for myself not to flip - made sure to wear my YM so he could see I was a serious collector. After about a year I went back and he said he couldn’t guess when but they were being supplied more regularly. Since then of course I’ve read about a worldwide shortage of SS sport watches.

 

[Thin White Duke]

I don’t know either, but I’m betting that’s it. Anyway, here’s to hoping you get your GMT and that this stupid, crazy supply shortage bullshit stops so people can just buy what they like. ?

I know it’s been discussed at length but is there any consensus as to why this is happening?
Are Rolex being dicks and artificially pumping up demand by restricting supply?
Or can they simply just not keep up with the demand?
Is it not in the interests of a business to make as much profit as possible? Surely they make a greater profit if they sell more watches?
Or is this some roundabout strategy to get rid of less popular watches by persuading customers to buy them before getting access to the sports watches?
If so would t it make more sense to reduce productivity on the less popular ones and transfer that to the ones people actually want?

 

[Dino944]

I know it’s been discussed at length but is there any consensus as to why this is happening?
Are Rolex being dicks and artificially pumping up demand by restricting supply?
Or can they simply just not keep up with the demand?
Is it not in the interests of a business to make as much profit as possible? Surely they make a greater profit if they sell more watches?
Or is this some roundabout strategy to get rid of less popular watches by persuading customers to buy them before getting access to the sports watches?
If so would t it make more sense to reduce productivity on the less popular ones and transfer that to the ones people actually want?

Only Rolex knows for sure. However, most ADs I've been to say they just are not receiving shipments the way they have in the past. Here in the States, even 4 to 5 years ago you could walk into any dealer and most had full showcases with every steel sports model except Daytonas. Again, with the exception of Daytonas newly released models that were hard to get (such as Kermit Subs) one could eventually see in showcases at dealers once supply caught up with demand. If they didn't have in a GMT or a Sub, they could order it and have one generally in 8 weeks or less.

As for profit, it is my understanding that Rolex is a charitable trust. So, they are not under the same constraints and do not have to worry about their profits or shareholders they way most companies do.

Rolex makes or at least in the past has made approximately 900,000 to a million watches per year. The shortage certainly creates a lot of hype about their sports models and the band in general. Maybe it draws in more buyers for Datejusts or Day-Dates. Although, even if their are ADs saying buy a bunch of jewelry, or some DJs or gold Day-Date and we will move you up on the wait list, plenty of people can afford a steel Rolex or one Rolex, but not multiple Rolex watches or a gold one. In addition, someone like me, I'm not a Datejust or Day-Date guy. I respect those products, but my interest has always been in their sports models, so I wouldn't buy a DJ or DD just to get another watch I want. I imagine there are other people who feel the same. Still it would be interesting to find out from Rolex what is causing this shortage.

 

[mak1277]

Only Rolex knows for sure. However, most ADs I've been to say they just are not receiving shipments the way they have in the past. Here in the States, even 4 to 5 years ago you could walk into any dealer and most had full showcases with every steel sports model except Daytonas. Again, with the exception of Daytonas newly released models that were hard to get (such as Kermit Subs) one could eventually see in showcases at dealers once supply caught up with demand. If they didn't have in a GMT or a Sub, they could order it and have one generally in 8 weeks or less.

As for profit, it is my understanding that Rolex is a charitable trust. So, they are not under the same constraints and do not have to worry about their profits or shareholders they way most companies do.

Rolex makes or at least in the past has made approximately 900,000 to a million watches per year. The shortage certainly creates a lot of hype about their sports models and the band in general. Maybe it draws in more buyers for Datejusts or Day-Dates. Although, even if their are ADs saying buy a bunch of jewelry, or some DJs or gold Day-Date and we will move you up on the wait list, plenty of people can afford a steel Rolex or one Rolex, but not multiple Rolex watches or a gold one. In addition, someone like me, I'm not a Datejust or Day-Date guy. I respect those products, but my interest has always been in their sports models, so I wouldn't buy a DJ or DD just to get another watch I want. I imagine there are other people who feel the same. Still it would be interesting to find out from Rolex what is causing this shortage.

I think they don't want to over-extend in terms of the capital required to significantly increase annual volume. Based on where we are in the economic cycle (long into the bull market) I don't think that's a bad decision. In terms of production mix, sure, they could make more SS sports watches and fewer PM datejusts and day-dates, but why? I would bet good money that the margin on ladies DJs and any PM model is well above what the margin is on an Explorer or Sub.

 

[Journeyman]

Still it would be interesting to find out from Rolex what is causing this shortage.

I imagine that it's basically increased demand.

Whether Rolex can increase supply, but chooses not to, I don't know. However, I think that it's clear that the past five to ten years have seen a large increase in watch collecting, mainly due to fashion/lifestyle websites, blogs and social media portraying watch collecting as a hobby and thus a concomitant increase in demand. Along with AP and PP, Rolex is one of the "it" brands to have and models such as the Submariner and GMT are the most popular Rolex models.

Also, of course, Rolex is regarded a luxury, high status item and so there's always demand due to that, particularly in countries such as China.

 

[Neville Southall]

Only Rolex knows for sure. However, most ADs I've been to say they just are not receiving shipments the way they have in the past. Here in the States, even 4 to 5 years ago you could walk into any dealer and most had full showcases with every steel sports model except Daytonas. Again, with the exception of Daytonas newly released models that were hard to get (such as Kermit Subs) one could eventually see in showcases at dealers once supply caught up with demand. If they didn't have in a GMT or a Sub, they could order it and have one generally in 8 weeks or less.

As for profit, it is my understanding that Rolex is a charitable trust. So, they are not under the same constraints and do not have to worry about their profits or shareholders they way most companies do.

Rolex makes or at least in the past has made approximately 900,000 to a million watches per year. The shortage certainly creates a lot of hype about their sports models and the band in general. Maybe it draws in more buyers for Datejusts or Day-Dates. Although, even if their are ADs saying buy a bunch of jewelry, or some DJs or gold Day-Date and we will move you up on the wait list, plenty of people can afford a steel Rolex or one Rolex, but not multiple Rolex watches or a gold one. In addition, someone like me, I'm not a Datejust or Day-Date guy. I respect those products, but my interest has always been in their sports models, so I wouldn't buy a DJ or DD just to get another watch I want. I imagine there are other people who feel the same. Still it would be interesting to find out from Rolex what is causing this shortage.

I'm going to pitch in with things I know from collecting for over a decade and from very close relationships with two major Rolex ADs. This may be public and common knowledge at this point, but I know this stuff for an absolute fact:

1) Rolex, in fact, limits supply of all watches relative to the volume they pumped out pre-2018 (that's when the squeeze began). They send shipments to ADs that, as a whole, contain less watches, especially less steel sport models;

2) The watches everyone wants - those models on "allocation" - are sold to people on a "wait list." Here's the trick that list does not function in chronological order. It is fluid. You get preference on the list according to spend history and relationship with the AD. For example, I didn't like the Pepsi GMT when it came out. In fact, I hated it. Then, I saw it in person. I called my AD and had one in a month. Because of my history and relationship there, I jumped ahead of everyone on the line. That's how it works. If you don't have the spend history, you'll spend years on the list. Want to climb up the list? You have to buy more stuff, more of whatever is on the shelves.

3) ADs hoard desirable watches in their safe. None of the good stuff is on display. When someone tells you, "I'm sorry. All we have is on the shelves and display cases," they're lying to you. Every AD has a safe/vault. They keep Daytonas, GMTs, Subs, etc. in there. I've literally walked in, asked for a rare watch, had it pulled from a safe inside the manager's office, and then walked out.

It's all a game, a very expensive game.

 

[Dino944]

I think they don't want to over-extend in terms of the capital required to significantly increase annual volume. Based on where we are in the economic cycle (long into the bull market) I don't think that's a bad decision. In terms of production mix, sure, they could make more SS sports watches and fewer PM datejusts and day-dates, but why? I would bet good money that the margin on ladies DJs and any PM model is well above what the margin is on an Explorer or Sub.

Not sure what your abbreviation "PM" means when you say, "PM datejusts" or "PM model." I'm sure its something I should know but I'm blanking out at the moment.

Yes the margin is far higher on Day-Dates than on a steel Sub or Explorer. Although, fewer people can afford a new $35K watch than a $8K-9K Sub.

I'm going to pitch in with things I know from collecting for over a decade and from very close relationships with two major Rolex ADs. This may be public and common knowledge at this point, but I know this stuff for an absolute fact:

1) Rolex, in fact, limits supply of all watches relative to the volume they pumped out pre-2018 (that's when the squeeze began). They send shipments to ADs that, as a whole, contain less watches, especially less steel sport models;

2) The watches everyone wants - those models on "allocation" - are sold to people on a "wait list." Here's the trick that list does not function in chronological order. It is fluid. You get preference on the list according to spend history and relationship with the AD. For example, I didn't like the Pepsi GMT when it came out. In fact, I hated it. Then, I saw it in person. I called my AD and had one in a month. Because of my history and relationship there, I jumped ahead of everyone on the line. That's how it works. If you don't have the spend history, you'll spend years on the list. Want to climb up the list? You have to buy more stuff, more of whatever is on the shelves.

3) ADs hoard desirable watches in their safe. None of the good stuff is on display. When someone tells you, "I'm sorry. All we have is on the shelves and display cases," they're lying to you. Every AD has a safe/vault. They keep Daytonas, GMTs, Subs, etc. in there. I've literally walked in, asked for a rare watch, had it pulled from a safe inside the manager's office, and then walked out.

It's all a game, a very expensive game.

Yes, that's basically what I have heard. I'm not surprised by any of what you have said, and I certainly understand ADs want to reward people who have been good customers. It's just sort of a shame that collecting and buying certain items has now become a lot of jumping through hoops, just to get what you want. Its also tougher for those who did a lot of business with certain stores for years and then Rolex cancels their contract. So all the money one spent there means nothing. It's not as though Rolex makes an introduction and says this is now your nearest AD, and they tell the AD this is a good client of the company treat them well. Anyway, classic first world problems.

Cheers and that GMT is a beauty! Enjoy it!

 

[Journeyman]

Not sure what your abbreviation "PM" means when you say, "PM datejusts" or "PM model."

I suspect that PM = precious metal, as in gold or platinum models.

It's all a game, a very expensive game.

It certainly is. Personally, I think that the fewer who choose to play the game, the better. Far too many people stress about how to obtain their latest "grail" watch and consider buying watches that they don't even want, or even travelling to a specific destination for a holiday, in the hope that they might, just might, be able to purchase what is nowadays an entirely unnecessary, luxury item. If they've really got money burning a hole in their pocket, there are plenty of other things to spend the money on!

 

[MZhammer]

I imagine that it's basically increased demand.

Whether Rolex can increase supply, but chooses not to, I don't know. However, I think that it's clear that the past five to ten years have seen a large increase in watch collecting, mainly due to fashion/lifestyle websites, blogs and social media portraying watch collecting as a hobby and thus a concomitant increase in demand. Along with AP and PP, Rolex is one of the "it" brands to have and models such as the Submariner and GMT are the most popular Rolex models.

Also, of course, Rolex is regarded a luxury, high status item and so there's always demand due to that, particularly in countries such as China.

This is pretty much my take on the shortage.

As Dino pointed out, Rolex makes 900k to a Million watches a year and I've heard that number referenced for quite a few years now but the surge in interest in watch collecting as a whole, and the hype culture perpetuated by Social Media, along with the increasingly casual culture has led to steel, sport Rolexes to become the 'it' thing (along with AP and PP). As a private trust, my guess is that Rolex is more concerned about protecting brand equity from ramping up and thus creating oversupply, whenever this wave finally crests, versus chasing demand for what is a relatively new phenomena in the hobby.

We know they are aggressively chasing down ADs who sell to the grey market and are pulling their product. I have a buddy who is a known 'flipper' who got cut off by an AD because they told him Rolex is buying grey market watches and pulling ADs when they see watches coming from the same source time and again.