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am55

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To chime in on the discussion of professional brokers and market makers. Not being an economist, not having read any papers on the matter, this is purely circumstantial and anecdotal evidence. But I have a feeling every marketplace is eventually taken over by the pros, from eBay to its copycats (e.g. Carousell here). Initially it's a chaotic heaven with deals to be found and pigeons to be feathered. Then slowly the deals are harder to find and people wise up to the price history before purchasing, and eventually new stuff appears as shop realise it's a cheap/free marketing channel and piggyback on the brand mindshare, and before you know it the regular users are mostly gone. I remember using eBay a lot more 10 years ago than today, although if I use it today it is to arbitrage international price differences or get a specific SKU (e.g. the US Garmin Fenix has software updates 6 months ahead of the APAC version, so worth waiting a few weeks shipping) from a professional shop. Similarly AirBNB is now almost entirely pro, Uber driver is an actual job with rental companies providing a specific contract just for it, etc.

All this to say... yes, price discovery becomes more efficient and some kind of liquidity is provided (and paid for, compensating the efforts of said market makers). But there's knock on effects that inflict less visible damage. I miss the days of discovering really cool neighbourhoods and people with AirBNB (and Couchsurfing), or the retired guy in his Rolls who picked us up on standard Uber in Point Piper, Sydney because he liked to "meet interesting people".
 

am55

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The ask for a steel/ceramic Daytona is now ~$40K. Whatever one’s intrinsic appreciation for the watch, it takes exceptional dedication to one’s hobby to turn away from an instant, zero effort, $15K windfall.

It is actually a real extravagance to not flip at these prices.
You can sell your club membership in SG for up to 200k. Not sure if it's worth it once you tally reputational cost and loss of network.
 

ronscuba

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Ok. But it's just too easy to say "look: these things don't really mean anything. It's all dollars and cents in the end, right..."

Forgive the paraphrase, I know that's not exactly what you said, but it was my takeaway.

Of course it's an expensive hobby. My accusation of cynicism derives from trying to reduce the "hobby" to dollars alone. Like, "hey at the end of the day, if you can make a buck..."??? That's not attractive to me...

Edit: I think the hobby SHOULD be "wasteful." Meaning should transcend price. But, within a luxury realm that is already gratuitous, it's frustrating to have the "market" driven up by folks looking for quick dollars. My 2c
I agree, but how many different watches command over msrp ? Specific brands and specific models ? These particular brands and models seem to have appeal beyond just the watch. The Daytona is a nice chrono, but there are a lot of nice chronos from other brands. The Submariner. What is it about the watch that makes it command above msrp ? I can get a Seamaster or Planet Ocean just walking into the store.

If people are willing to defy logic and pay substantially above msrp just because they want a specific watch from a specific brand and cannot wait, well, that might bring along someone who sees a $ making opportunity.
 
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9thsymph

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The ask for a steel/ceramic Daytona is now ~$40K. Whatever one’s intrinsic appreciation for the watch, it takes exceptional dedication to one’s hobby to turn away from an instant, zero effort, $15K windfall.

It is actually a real extravagance to not flip at these prices.

Let me get this straight:

1. Spend $$$$$$$$$ on AD relationship so that you can buy a S/C Daytona for $$$
2. Sell for $$$$
3. Tell people if they want a Daytona they need to have enough money to spend on the AD relationship, but not enough money to actually want the watch they spent the money to acquire.

Ok...
 

TheFoo

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Let me get this straight:

1. Spend $$$$$$$$$ on AD relationship so that you can buy a S/C Daytona for $$$
2. Sell for $$$$
3. Tell people if they want a Daytona they need to have enough money to spend on the AD relationship, but not enough money to actually want the watch they spent the money to acquire.

Ok...

No, I’m simply pointing out that the market price has advanced at such a pace that it becomes increasingly more difficult to justify keeping the watch. Hell, it has gone up 30% since I paid for mine!
 

Texasmade

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Let me get this straight:

1. Spend $$$$$$$$$ on AD relationship so that you can buy a S/C Daytona for $$$
2. Sell for $$$$
3. Tell people if they want a Daytona they need to have enough money to spend on the AD relationship, but not enough money to actually want the watch they spent the money to acquire.

Ok...
Well presumably on step 1 spending $$$$$$$ is for stuff you actually want. If you don't want that stuff then spending $$$$$$ is a waste.
 

9thsymph

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Well presumably on step 1 spending $$$$$$$ is for stuff you actually want. If you don't want that stuff then spending $$$$$$ is a waste.

good point. but this is where the fully-fledged-flipper enters the equation - dumping all the relational product at weak margins (which might even start to drive scarcity of "lesser" pieces) to score the medium margin on the hyped piece. Anyway...it's just tedious to me...
 

chocomallo

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Who’s being cynical? There is always more to want and desire that is out of reach for whatever reason. Don’t convince yourself that any luxury item “should” be yours and you’ll be a lot more happy and rational about life.

Ultimately, watches are baubles and nothing of any real importance. Proceed accordingly.

LOL. Says the man obsessing over some shop wear on a special bauble he wants for his big birthday.
 

chocomallo

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Let me get this straight:

1. Spend $$$$$$$$$ on AD relationship so that you can buy a S/C Daytona for $$$
2. Sell for $$$$
3. Tell people if they want a Daytona they need to have enough money to spend on the AD relationship, but not enough money to actually want the watch they spent the money to acquire.

Ok...

I believe TheFoo is self identifying as watch rich, cash poor. Not to be confused with house rich, cash poor, but that could be the case as well.
 

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