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montecristo#2

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MSRP seems very likely and I think it is even possible that hot models like the Daytona and GMT will be discounted slightly sometime next year. This is going to be the worst recession in modern history, perhaps even surpassing the Great Depression. Plus, no country is immune. The market was a huge bubble before and the collapse will be shockingly swift. I think possible triggers for a mass exit for the doors will be when the millions of white collar unemployment filings are revealed along with negative GDP growth officially declared. If a couple of big companies go under, that'll also have a triggering effect.

Plus, the inept response here in the U.S. will ensure that the disease drags on for many months, perhaps into the fall and winter.
I’m skeptical it will be that bad.
 

Ambulance Chaser

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I'm also curious as to how brands that don't hold their value like Lange are going to do. If I can pick up a Saxonia Thin 37 mm for around $9K NIB, I'll be a happy man.
 

Texasmade

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Lange also recently raised prices on their models earlier in the year. Not exactly the best timing for them.
 

Journeyman

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I think your analysis is well written and logical.

I very much hope that things don't get really bad.
Frankly, unless the US and China recover quite quickly, I think that it will be worse.

I'm in Australia and although we are not in lockdown, we have some pretty draconian "social distancing" regulations in place, and cafes and restaurants are not allowed to have people eating in but can only do take-away food and drinks. My city is like a ghost town at the moment. The vast majority of shops are closed, even department stores. The only places that are still doing well are supermarkets and other food stores, and hardware stores. Airlines have essentially shut down and have furloughed tens of thousands of staff. Unemployment has skyrocketed. Our Prime Minister is warning people that this situation could last for the next six months or more.

If businesses are able to sell online they will still continue to get some business but, as @Ambulance Chaser wrote, there's an understandable reluctance to purchase discretionary goods at present as people aren't sure whether they will still be employed in another few weeks or months. They have to prioritise mortgage/rent and other living expenses before fripperies like watches.
 

ThinkDerm

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I agree with a most of what you wrote. However, how much of this happens, really depends on how long things remain the way they are now, with lockdowns and shelter in place orders for all non-essential workers. I think things would have to go on this way for a long time to see discounts from ADs on steel sports Rolex watches. I haven't seen discounts on steel sport model Rolex watches in more than 5 yeas and that was when you could walk into ADs and find any model except SS Daytonas in showcases, and before watches like steel GMTs and Subs were selling for more than their list price.
I remember during the recession when you could get Daytonas on the cheap and they were in the display case for anyone off the street to buy
 

Dino944

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I remember during the recession when you could get Daytonas on the cheap and they were in the display case for anyone off the street to buy
If by the recession, you mean 2008 into 2009, although Daytonas were selling over list price, even before that recession, they were not selling for anything close to what they were in 2016 and later. So they were "Relatively cheap" back then anyway.
 

Omega Male

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do lange NOT hold their value?
They are sort of in the middle. Not Patek or Rolex where preowned values may be higher than MSRP, but also not most of the other luxury brands where resale drops like a rock. It also depends on the specific reference of course.
 

Ebitdaddy

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I think we will definitely see a huge flood of watches hitting the market at great prices. Can't wait!
They are sort of in the middle. Not Patek or Rolex where preowned values may be higher than MSRP, but also not most of the other luxury brands where resale drops like a rock. It also depends on the specific reference of course.
They definitely don't hold value but if you buy used it's not a big deal. I sold my Lange 1 for a $500 loss recently.

I'm hoping things crash so I can pick up an FPJ at a reasonable price. 😆
 

bespoken pa

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I think we will definitely see a huge flood of watches hitting the market at great prices. Can't wait!


They definitely don't hold value but if you buy used it's not a big deal. I sold my Lange 1 for a $500 loss recently.

I'm hoping things crash so I can pick up an FPJ at a reasonable price. 😆
Not unless govberg gets hit hard.
 

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