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Thrift Vader

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A few minutes on those knock-off watch forums and you'll see that they're manufacturing watches almost 1:1 now, even the movements. Someone who's particularly talented and ballsy could build some of those double-red sea-dwellers. I'd be extremely cautious of one at 5k.
come on now, this is silly. why would you 1:1 copy a rolex.
- then wear the fuck out of it. and try to sell it for a local market equitable value?
non inflated prices don't mean fake.

it's almost like what you pay for a watch is more of a badge of honor than the watch itself.
 

CBrown85

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come on now, this is silly. why would you 1:1 copy a rolex.
- then wear the fuck out of it. and try to sell it for a local market equitable value?
non inflated prices don't mean fake.

it's almost like what you pay for a watch is more of a badge of honor than the watch itself.
I'm not sure what this is even supposed to mean...
 

Thrift Vader

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I'm not sure what this is even supposed to mean...
exactly. The watch is real. it just has a declined value due to condition.
not a jab at you. but the myth of price = authenticity.

someone on a budget,with a rugged style. could make it work.
 

Dino944

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come on now, this is silly. why would you 1:1 copy a rolex.
- then wear the fuck out of it. and try to sell it for a local market equitable value?
non inflated prices don't mean fake.

it's almost like what you pay for a watch is more of a badge of honor than the watch itself.
The price is what is suspicious. A Double Red Sea-Dweller hasn't been in the $5K range in probably close to 30 years...in any part of the world. If Japan was a haven for cheap rare Rolex watches, selling for 1/10th of their market value, collectors would flock to Japan and buy them to sell elsewhere. As for copies of Rolex watches that's nothing new. In addition, people modding less rare Rolexes to look like much rarer more valuable pieces is nothing new. They have been doing this for years.

If you really think its the real deal, you should buy it and see if you can flip it for tens of thousands more than you paid for it. It could help fund your next car or car project.
 

Thrift Vader

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naw, it's ravaged. i couldn't honestly do that.
 

am55

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come on now, this is silly. why would you 1:1 copy a rolex.
- then wear the fuck out of it. and try to sell it for a local market equitable value?
non inflated prices don't mean fake.

it's almost like what you pay for a watch is more of a badge of honor than the watch itself.
Following the chap's advice and looking through said forums, I think the idea is to buy one of the more popular SKUs and flip it as "without papers" which comes with a say 40% discount. If you find a sucker (and there are plenty of deal hunters out there who want to believe - or even just have plausible deniability), you've bought for $500 and sold for, say, $5,000 making it 10x. It might even be worth creating a sales history first with cheaper watches flipped at a slight loss.

I'm just waiting for a secondary market in watch papers to develop. You could buy the (authentic) papers and get a replica made with the serial number... eventually there'd be a market in Rolex NDFs, options, etc. Even better if the brands maintain a large public database of authentic serials and current owners thereof, you won't even have to ship the paper over. But it'd get in the way of the utility of watches as a high value, portable, fungible currency.
 

Journeyman

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exactly. The watch is real. it just has a declined value due to condition.
not a jab at you. but the myth of price = authenticity.
It really depends on the watch.

If it's a "normal" watch (ie not particularly collectible) and is bashed up, then it's certainly true that no-one will want it.

However, although it may seem ridiculous to people who aren't interested in watches, there are watch nerds (or Watch Idiot Savants, or WISs, as they used to nickname themselves) out there who are actually willing to pay more for a watch that has been banged up, that has "patina".

Think of it like a vintage Ferrari - a lot of collectors prefer unrestored cars in "original" condition, even though it means that the seat leather might be worn, the paint may be scratched and faded, instead of a restored car in showroom condition. Restoring some vintage Ferrari and other such cars can actually reduce their value, as crazy as it might sound.

It's the same with some brands and models of watch. Some watch collectors will go weak at the knees for a faded dial or bezel on old Submariners or similar Rolex models. Not only do they think that it's aesthetically pleasing, but it also helps to show that it's authentic, rather than a fake. It also helps to show that the parts of the watch all come from the same time period, rather than having an old case and putting a new dial, bezel and hands on it.

So to respond to your point, it's quite possible that a double-red Sea Dweller is actually worth *more* if it's a bit scratched and scuffed with age, and if the dial and bezel are a bit faded, rather than if it's in as-new condition. Even if the wear-and-tear doesn't make it worth more, it wouldn't decrease the value. Rolex collectors would still be willing to pay anywhere from US$35,000 to US$50,000 (and maybe even more) for a double-red Sea Dweller, regardless of the condition.

That's why people here are sceptical. Either the seller doesn't know the value of what they have and it's the deal of the century, or there's something suspicious about it. Given that there are plenty of Rolex collectors and enthusiasts in Japan who know about watches, it's quite possibly the latter...
 

Belligero

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Nah, seems totally plausible that a watch whose dial alone would easily sell for over $20K is sitting around at $5K.

It’s probably just because they don’t have the internet in Japan or something. 🤔
 

an draoi

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Even better if the brands maintain a large public database of authentic serials and current owners thereof, you won't even have to ship the paper over. But it'd get in the way of the utility of watches as a high value, portable, fungible currency.
At the risk of missing some irony somewhere, I'm going to say this sounds like a non-starter.
 

Journeyman

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At the risk of missing some irony somewhere, I'm going to say this sounds like a non-starter.
What could go wrong? :eek2: [Looks up public database, identifies owner of multiple vintage Rolex watches, finds owner's address on another database, breaks into house, clubs owner over head, takes watches...]

Seriously, though, it's already possible to check serial numbers online to get a pretty good indication of whether a watch is authentic or not.

Rolex: https://est1897.co.uk/serial-numbers-check-year-of-manufacture-online

Omega: http://www.hnco.com.au/articles/hnco-guide-to-omega-watch-serial-numbers/

Omega owners or dealers in second-hand Omega watches can also provide details of their particular watch to Omega and, for a fee, obtain an extract from Omega's archives which details the model of the watch and when it was manufactured: https://www.omegawatches.com/customer-service/extract-of-the-archives
 

Thrift Vader

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It really depends on the watch.

If it's a "normal" watch (ie not particularly collectible) and is bashed up, then it's certainly true that no-one will want it.

However, although it may seem ridiculous to people who aren't interested in watches, there are watch nerds (or Watch Idiot Savants, or WISs, as they used to nickname themselves) out there who are actually willing to pay more for a watch that has been banged up, that has "patina".

Think of it like a vintage Ferrari - a lot of collectors prefer unrestored cars in "original" condition, even though it means that the seat leather might be worn, the paint may be scratched and faded, instead of a restored car in showroom condition. Restoring some vintage Ferrari and other such cars can actually reduce their value, as crazy as it might sound.

It's the same with some brands and models of watch. Some watch collectors will go weak at the knees for a faded dial or bezel on old Submariners or similar Rolex models. Not only do they think that it's aesthetically pleasing, but it also helps to show that it's authentic, rather than a fake. It also helps to show that the parts of the watch all come from the same time period, rather than having an old case and putting a new dial, bezel and hands on it.

So to respond to your point, it's quite possible that a double-red Sea Dweller is actually worth *more* if it's a bit scratched and scuffed with age, and if the dial and bezel are a bit faded, rather than if it's in as-new condition. Even if the wear-and-tear doesn't make it worth more, it wouldn't decrease the value. Rolex collectors would still be willing to pay anywhere from US$35,000 to US$50,000 (and maybe even more) for a double-red Sea Dweller, regardless of the condition.

That's why people here are sceptical. Either the seller doesn't know the value of what they have and it's the deal of the century, or there's something suspicious about it. Given that there are plenty of Rolex collectors and enthusiasts in Japan who know about watches, it's quite possibly the latter...
Sceptical? more like incredulous. I understand the difference in markets. The "Rat Rod Bling" scene is very small. (Former owner of a slammed LS400 rat rod) It would take an epic Hipster to be that watches buyer. and the seller knows it.

I once passed on a Patek for $100. because it had a broken rear glass. i knew it was real. it was a thing. and that i couldn't afford the repair to cash in on the investment.
-Bought an Ebel instead, from the same collection. and tripled my money. +after wearing it a bit.

the short. we don't know each other well. But i bet my lunch on my knowledge.


Nah, seems totally plausible that a watch whose dial alone would easily sell for over $20K is sitting around at $5K.

It’s probably just because they don’t have the internet in Japan or something. 🤔
Internet is bullshit here.


Look. if you have expendable funds? Buy it. tell me i'm wrong. about everything.
enjoy your beaten rolex that you can't selfie with a suit.

But a guy who rocks the Barbour, and Belstaff. on a budget will really enjoy it. and that was the point.
 

Dino944

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Sceptical? more like incredulous. I understand the difference in markets. The "Rat Rod Bling" scene is very small. (Former owner of a slammed LS400 rat rod) It would take an epic Hipster to be that watches buyer. and the seller knows it.

I once passed on a Patek for $100. because it had a broken rear glass. i knew it was real. it was a thing. and that i couldn't afford the repair to cash in on the investment.
-Bought an Ebel instead, from the same collection. and tripled my money. +after wearing it a bit.

the short. we don't know each other well. But i bet my lunch on my knowledge.
If that is a real double Red Sea-Dweller, why doesn't the seller take a trip to Europe or the US? He can sell it in a heartbeat if its real. The amount he would get would more than cover his travel, hotel, and still make a large profit.
If the scratches are a big issue in Japan, why doesn't he send it to Rolex of Japan for an overhaul and have them polish it? Sure people who value originality might be a bit put off that it has been polished, but wouldn't it open a much larger audience of buyers to that watch if it weren't all scratched?

How did "Your guy" get a Patek that he was selling for $100? Did someone sell it to "Your guy" for $25? Come on, a real Patek? How much hands on exposure do you have with Pateks? I've even seen a few second hand stores accidentally take in a fake watch. Sorry, I have to doubt its authenticity, unless it was an old small size steel Calatrava (and the case couldn't be sold for the value of the gold) that had the crown open, someone went swimming with it, allowed the water to get in, then closed the crown to keep the water inside, ruining the dial and turning the movement into a hunk of rust that wouldn't work.
 

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