Dismiss Notice

STYLE. COMMUNITY. GREAT CLOTHING.

Bored of counting likes on social networks? At Styleforum, you’ll find rousing discussions that go beyond strings of emojis.

Click Here to join Styleforum's thousands of style enthusiasts today!

The soft retail market and other possible indicators of an economic bubble, particularly in tech

Discussion in 'Streetwear and Denim' started by Joenobody0, May 24, 2016.

  1. the shah

    the shah Persian Bro #2 and enabler-in-chief

    Messages:
    16,596
    Likes Received:
    10,954
    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Location:
    lying furtively
    I have a cousin who is in the mortgage business, also a pseudo-tech company because, well, they develop a lot of software too that goes along with their main product which is signing people up for decades of repayments. He's already seeing garbage mortgages being bundled with good ones and sold as commodities (not his company's, they only apparently pre-approve people and based on realistic assessments -- not 5 condos for a bus boy at Wendy's or whatever). This sounds awfully familiar ...
     


  2. t3hg0suazn

    t3hg0suazn Senior member

    Messages:
    1,985
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2011
    People in the tech industry or closely acquainted with it. Don't think any heard about Middleditch's comment but some actually have told me they don't watch the show because it's too real
     


  3. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    35,516
    Likes Received:
    12,564
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    I am not actually in "tech", or at very most, my business interests are on the periphery of tech, but enough so that I deal with the tech industry on a nearly daily basis, and I refuse to watch the show. That said, people have often refused to watch movies and television that is too close to home. There is at least one FBI bureau chief who hates to talk about his work and who apparently limits his tv watching to art house stuff his wife likes, and romantic comedies.

    I am not sure that this is so much an indicator of anything other than that certain industries and professions are particularly stressful, and who really wants to play out that stress again, for entertainment? Tech is stressful because it moves fast. You can't coast. It's what makes it exciting, but it also makes it stressful. Certainly, this is not nearly as inherently stressful as being responsible for people's safety, or dealing with a disporportionately violent population all day (I know a lot of prison guards). I certainly haven't heard any of the other issues that seem to correlate with these high stress professions - domestic violence, high divorce rates, high rates of chemical dependency - being associated with tech. But there may be just enough stress to make people not want to relive their lives onscreen.
     


  4. vodkaislove

    vodkaislove Member

    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    15
    Joined:
    May 7, 2016
    history repeats itself.
     


  5. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    35,516
    Likes Received:
    12,564
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    It doesn't, is the problem. Things are always different enough that people can convince themselves of a different outcome other than "things go directly to shit".
     


  6. vodkaislove

    vodkaislove Member

    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    15
    Joined:
    May 7, 2016
    That's correct, the situation will be different next time around, but the principle stays the same. Bank makes risky investment that backfires and fails pay their obligation as the result
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2016


  7. djblisk

    djblisk Senior member

    Messages:
    1,524
    Likes Received:
    114
    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006


  8. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    35,516
    Likes Received:
    12,564
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    I took that a few times, and raised my IQ from 135 (bright, but not a genius) to 155, which is where it should be at.

    There are different ways of transfering laterally. I would probably not go to an early stage startup though. At least at an enterprise company, if you get fired, you'll know that it's because they hate you more than they hate other people, not because they've simply run out of runway. I supposethat the founders could write you a nice long letter while they are in the unemployment benefits office as well.
     


  9. the shah

    the shah Persian Bro #2 and enabler-in-chief

    Messages:
    16,596
    Likes Received:
    10,954
    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Location:
    lying furtively
    Lol n00b
    my score was first try while i was also doing other work :cool:

    (I am pretty sure it has to involve a random number generator within some wide interval!? these questions can't be actual IQ test material, iT must come from standardized tests high school kids should be taking)
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2016


  10. the shah

    the shah Persian Bro #2 and enabler-in-chief

    Messages:
    16,596
    Likes Received:
    10,954
    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Location:
    lying furtively
    So I recently watched the big short, and this weekend saw money monster (basically a 2 hour anti-trump pro-Bernie ad), and have been reading flash boys. The book is the best of the three, thought the first movie is based on the same author's work. It's pretty interesting stuff, especially since I know a handful of engineers who, after getting their doctorates, jumped into the hellish recesses of dark pools at GS and JPMorgan :devil:

    We gotta get @skittles in this thread too
     


  11. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    35,516
    Likes Received:
    12,564
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    If you are interested in the quantitative stuff, and don't mind half-insane #OWS in 2016 level left-leaning rants thrown in for good measure, I would recommend a friend's blog: https://mathbabe.org/

    She is really very smart (I think that she would probably score higher on the IQ test than either of us, if it as least relatively accurate), and gives some good overviews about data science and the state of data science, banking, etc.. None of it is impartially presented, though much of it is objectively presented.
     


  12. t3hg0suazn

    t3hg0suazn Senior member

    Messages:
    1,985
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2011
    I remember her from Slate Money podcast, back when I used to listen!
     


  13. deepitm

    deepitm Senior member

    Messages:
    605
    Likes Received:
    95
    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2010
    Location:
    Chicago
    Is soft retail a leading indicator? My thinking was always that retail spending was not predictive.

    In '08, you didn't see the massive sales until November, after the market had already crapped out and the bailouts, TARP, etc. were happening. The mortgage market was getting bad in early '07. Mortgage related companies started to tumble then. Banks didn't start to blow out until early '08 (Bear Stearns), Lehman not til the summer, Merrill the fall.
     


  14. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    35,516
    Likes Received:
    12,564
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    I think that's not an indicator of an overall fallout, but it is an indicator that people are not particularly confident in the economy.
     


  15. Jr Mouse

    Jr Mouse Senior member Dubiously Honored

    Messages:
    18,015
    Likes Received:
    3,140
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2009
    Location:
    All of time and space, everything that ever was or
    


    Glad someone else lol'd at the idea that selling shirts or pocket squares online instantly made you a "tech" startup.
     


Share This Page

Styleforum is proudly sponsored by