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zippyh

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Thanks. Think it’ll come down more as time goes on? Eg after the season, on eBay etc. I never know if they only make a few of these things and they are hard to find or if they are a little easier.
Don’t play that game with yourself. You would have been willing to get it on the $500 off deal which is about 31% off. You can now get it 20% off from Stag.

Surely it’ll be available cheaper *if* there’s inventory at Ralph later. But that seems a big if this year. Will you be sadder not getting it at all or buying it at 20% when it ends up lower priced?
 

cs54

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Don’t play that game with yourself. You would have been willing to get it on the $500 off deal which is about 31% off. You can now get it 20% off from Stag.

Surely it’ll be available cheaper *if* there’s inventory at Ralph later. But that seems a big if this year. Will you be sadder not getting it at all or buying it at 20% when it ends up lower priced?
Ok y’all are killing me lol. I had made my peace with missing out on this glorious mortgage-payment-esque sweater but now I’m back in the fray breathing heavily 😋
 

jhcam8

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Ok y’all are killing me lol. I had made my peace with missing out on this glorious mortgage-payment-esque sweater but now I’m back in the fray breathing heavily 😋
Buy once, cry once.
 

Serad

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Has anyone seen these bad boys in the flesh yet? I’m still wondering if they’re more like the promo samples (suede/roughout) or shiny like this. 558CC353-0FD4-4FE4-9629-19EEDC62C71F.jpeg
 

Lotuspath

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Don’t play that game with yourself. You would have been willing to get it on the $500 off deal which is about 31% off. You can now get it 20% off from Stag.

Surely it’ll be available cheaper *if* there’s inventory at Ralph later. But that seems a big if this year. Will you be sadder not getting it at all or buying it at 20% when it ends up lower priced?
“Don’t play that game with yourself.”

But it’s already too late for that, we’re only human and humans are always playing psychological games. In this case, I think we’re playing a Discounted Stochastic game with shifting rules, perameters, players and strategies. Here are the basic rules for ”repeat players” of the RRL shopping game.

Using your sweater as an example with “historical” modeling:
$1,600 - full price
$1,280 - 80% w/3rd party vendors
$1,100 - 69% last week w/$500 off purchase over $1,000
$960 - 60% after 1st markdown (4 months after initial drop)
$640 - 40% after 2nd markdown (5 months after initial drop)

The problem is always inventory availability and ‘other players’ dynamics/behavior (i.e. the other player’s strategy models).
You would think the logical dominant strategy for all players should be to wait for the second markdown to maximize value but there is always some initial Hyperbolic Discounting (irrational) going on here because some players simply can’t wait (or maybe don’t need to wait). Other players predict the item won’t make it past the 1st-markdown and tap out early.
Some players on the other hand seem to be using a more quasi Keynesian Probability (rational) approach that takes into consideration dwindling stock as time passes (and the price decreases). Of course the cheaper the price, the more players will engage and the less stock then available.
But, you also need to take into account the game disruptors like eBay resellers and this year .... COVID. I would ignore the eBay folk for now since they only significantly engage at the lowest possible price levels to maximize their profits (but beware of them in the initial hour of the 2nd markdown). RL is always a constant variable and is pretty much controlling the game except don’t forget, the players also dictate back to RL his strategy adjustments (assessing stock, cost, price, profit, etc) as the individual players make our moves throughout the game. I kind of look at this game as an almost reverse auction where the ‘winners’ pay the least.
So where are we right now at this point in the game? Well, in my opinion, we’ve already weeded out most of the hyperbolic discount buyers, we’ve absorbed the first blow of the “$500 off $1,000” sale and now there is limited inventory options (but we also don’t really know the inventory for a ‘fact‘ - because don’t forget RL is also playing a marketing game too). But you too can also use other less structured strategies outside the playing field to “game” the outcome, like asking a SA to hold stock or buying/capturing an item at full price before the sale and then returnIng it during the sale creating “new” artificial inventory at the lower price.
So will these sweaters make it to the likely early January 1st-markdown @ $960 or not? I am predicting that “yes“ some sweaters will make it to the sale. Why? Because take a look at the RRL UK website. In the U.K. there was no “$500 off $1,000” sale and right now there is still plenty of stock available. So the most likely cause of the limited US inventory was that initial sale, but that sale is now over. However, it appears UK players are not engaging at the full price and are not limiting stock like we did here in the US. So therefore, IMHO the remaining US inventory will also likely not move at full price before January either. Except, you also need to factor in other less predictable variables like X-mas holiday shopping, consumer confidence, RL changing the perameters of the game by doing less than 40% off, late returns, “animal spirits” ..... etc.

Hope that didn’t take all the joy out of shopping.
 
Last edited:

jhcam8

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I have that same indigo workshirt sweater. Did you give it a soak to wash out some of the dark color??? It looks fantastic.
Thanks. No, it came like that. Maybe the lighting casts it differently? Works well for laying. It's mid 30's and was warm enough.
 

Tyjordan86

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“Don’t play that game with yourself.”

But it’s already too late for that, we’re only human and humans are always playing psychological games. In this case, I think we’re playing a Discounted Stochastic game with shifting rules, perameters, players and strategies. Here are the basic rules for ”repeat players” of the RRL shopping game.

Using your sweater as an example with “historical” modeling:
$1,600 - full price
$1,280 - 80% w/3rd party vendors
$1,100 - 69% last week w/$500 off purchase over $1,000
$960 - 60% after 1st markdown (4 months after initial drop)
$640 - 40% after 2nd markdown (5 months after initial drop)

The problem is always inventory availability and ‘other players’ dynamics/behavior (i.e. the other player’s strategy models). You would think the logical dominant strategy for all players should be to wait for the second markdown to maximize value but there is always some initial Hyperbolic Discounting (irrational) going on here because some players simply can’t wait (or maybe don’t need to wait). Other players predict the item won’t make it past the 1st-markdown and tap out early.
Zippyh on the other hand seems to be using a more quasi Keynesian Probability (rational) approach and takes into consideration dwindling stock as time passes (and the price decreases). Of course the cheaper the price, the more players will engage and the less stock then available. But, you also need to take into account the game disruptors like eBay resellers and this year .... COVID. I would ignore the eBay folk for now since they only significantly engage at the lowest possible price levels to maximize their profits (but beware of them in the initial hour of the 2nd markdown). RL is always a constant variable and is pretty much controlling the game except don’t forget, the players also dictate back to RL his strategy adjustments (assessing stock, cost, price, profit, etc) as the individual players make our moves throughout the game. I kind of look at this game as an almost reverse auction where the ‘winners’ pay the least.
So where are we right now at this point in the game? Well, in my opinion, we’ve already weeded out most of the hyperbolic discount buyers, we’ve absorbed the first blow of the “$500 off $1,000” sale and now there is limited inventory options (but we also don’t really know the inventory for a ‘fact‘ - because don’t forget RL is also playing a marketing game too). But you can also use other less structured strategies outside the playing field too to “game” the outcome, like asking a SA to hold stock or buying/capturing an item at full price before the sale and then returnIng it during the sale creating “new” artificial inventory at the lower price.
So will these sweaters make it to the likely early January 1st-markdown @ $960 or not? I am predicting that “yes“ some sweaters will make it to the sale. Why? Because take a look at the RRL UK website. In the U.K. there was no “$500 off $1,000” and right now there is plenty of stock available. So the most likely cause of the limited US inventory was that initial sale, but that sale is now over. However, UK players are not engaging at the full price and are not limiting stock like we did here in the US. So IMHO the remaining US inventory will likely not move at full price before January either. Except, you also need to factor in other less predictable variables like X-mas holiday shopping, consumer confidence, RL changing the perameters of the game by doing less than 40% off, late returns, “animal spirits” ..... SLRich ..... etc.

Hope that didn’t take all the joy out of shopping.
My mind is blown after reading this
 

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