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Are the terms the same? The CUs I've been looking at, the max fixed rate is 20 years, but all the ARMs are all 30-year term with the rate changing every 5 years. The best ARM rate (80% LTV) is only slightly more than the best 10-year fixed rate (90% LTV), and much cheaper than 20-year fixed.
Also (I know this is obvious) remember that the amount you're financing decreases over the life of the loan, especially if you are paying extra, so the effects of rate increases later in the loan can be mitigated.
I guess there could be things in the fine print, but here is what PenFed is advertising:
30 year fixed: 3.625%; 3.778% APR
15/15 ARM 4.0%; 4.055% APR
7/1 ARM 3.75%; 4.192% APR