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imatlas

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Our downstairs neighbors just bought a place on Montclair (hot neighborhood in Oakland / SF East Bay). I'm very curious what they paid for it, and even more curious to see what they'll get for their unit. There's been so little comparable sales activity right around here that I'm really not sure where our value stands at the moment.
 

brokencycle

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A literal correction? I mean I'm not willing to commit to that happening for the reasons I listed earler--home prices tend to be sticky and people don't want to sell for less than they paid or less than recent comps. For a literal correction, I'd need to see some exogenous factor like a true recession that suddenly decimates individual income, pushes up foreclosures, and forces sales that otherwise wouldn't have happened.

But I could see a market that goes flat where people who bid 50% over asking on a house struggle to resell at an acceptable price or even are just left with a house that is only worth 5% more than they paid 5 years later while the stock market has gone up 40% in the same time (which is low for the S&P500).



Maybe its just that I can't wrap my head around what is essentially "table stakes" in the bay area...but at least I can understand that more.

$50k isn't really all that much if you are talking about a city dweller saying "I'm working remote now and I need an extra room and a yard, but I don't care about the commute anymore". Like an extra $200 a month on your mortgage? I know a guy doing exactly that next month...they are moving to a suburb on the north side of MKE because they can both work remotely. They probably bid up the MKE house, but they could easily be paying *less* than they pay for their house here
Sure subwoofer moving from Chicago can probably afford it, but a 30% increase in housing prices in a year is a lot and doesn't seem sustainable. When they go to sell it will most likely be locals looking, and the Milwaukee market pays a lot less than Chicago.

Also, I hope your buddy loves property taxes because Wisconsin is nutso high.
 

otc

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Also, I hope your buddy loves property taxes because Wisconsin is nutso high
Suburbs north of the city are also nutso high so I'm not sure if he is gaining or losing there.
 

ValidusLA

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This is like a perfect example of the entire LA suburban real estate market. Listed at 850k for a 870 sq foot "cute" house with no land, a concrete yard, in a "hip" but not upscale suburb, one block from a freeway off ramp.

I bet it goes close to 1 mil.
 

Piobaire

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In other news we're not selling.
 

brokencycle

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Suburbs north of the city are also nutso high so I'm not sure if he is gaining or losing there.
All taxes are high by you. WI is probably a lot less than a Chicago suburb but still relatively high in my mind.

Edit: I just saw this article. Chicago suburbs dominate the highest property tax small/mid-sized cities. Milwaukee is #1 for highest large city.
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NorCal

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All taxes are high by you. WI is probably a lot less than a Chicago suburb but still relatively high in my mind.

Edit: I just saw this article. Chicago suburbs dominate the highest property tax small/mid-sized cities. Milwaukee is #1 for highest large city.
View attachment 1605342
Considering the shit all ya'll talk, Cali is awfully absent from those lists.
 

ValidusLA

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Considering the shit all ya'll talk, Cali is awfully absent from those lists.
Ya but overall tax burden is a function of both rate and costs.

My tax rate is only around 1.15%, but my house costs 4x or more what it would cost in many of those places.

Not to mention nation highest state tax and a 10.25% sales tax.
 

brokencycle

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Considering the shit all ya'll talk, Cali is awfully absent from those lists.
On property tax, yes. CA has a high total tax burden because of the really high income taxes, and overall depending on the methodology and year it is normally in the top 10 (NY is normally always #1). But the Midwest has its share of high tax states. IL & MN are generally high taxes overall. WI, MI, IN, IA, and OH all rely on high property taxes in particular.
 

Omega Male

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Ya but overall tax burden is a function of both rate and costs.

My tax rate is only around 1.15%, but my house costs 4x or more what it would cost in many of those places.

Not to mention nation highest state tax and a 10.25% sales tax.
Also 13.3% on capital gains.

:censored:
 

Omega Male

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I do like the weather.
 

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