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Like I said, you can always pick arbitrary points... I literally conceded that in my post. The point is, on average, over the normal investor's lifetime, they will see gains. Sure, throwing a ton of money in before a black swan event will have large short/medium-term losses. I don't think anyone is arguing it is a sure thing or there aren't periods where you could lose money.
sure. so why bother with any point-to-point analysis, you concede the evidence and then cite it
Sure, a 40% "correction" could come, but that would make it among the worst bear markets in 100 years.
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There's always a time frame problem in any of these discussions, but an investor buying at the bottom in 2009 to now would have made 400% in a decade. There was a 28% drop, so they still would have been up 288% at the 2020 trough.
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You do you, but I rather risk buying and losing 40% overnight than sit out and risk missing out on huge gains while I wait for that inevitable drop.
A look at bear and bull markets through history
A comparison of US bear markets to their bull counterparts, which tend to last far longer and generate moves of far greater magnitude.www.cnbc.com
And I just don't see the 40% thesis. Or even the 25% thesis.
February/March 2020? Sure. I'd question it, but I can at least see the thesis. Global pandemic is about to cripple international trade, drive everyone out of work, and kill a bunch of people.
But today? After we've started to figure out how to live and work with it and have come up with functional vaccines? What's going to cause the drop?
At this point it might as well have been sitting in 2017 and saying "I think a crash is coming". It would take some unexpected event out of left field--another pandemic that's worse, war breaks out, lithium ion batteries suddenly all stop working.
sure. so why bother with any point-to-point analysis, you concede the evidence and then cite it anyway.
whether equities make sense vs alternative would come down to terms of the investor, i know that's rote but so is 'equities gain over the long term'
Since 1973 (because that is the data set I could find easily), there hasn't been a single year where you wouldn't have positive returns over 15 or 20 years with an S&P index fund. While the difference between the worst case scenario and the best case scenario is large, I still rather take the worst case scenario than sitting out. To each their own.
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Do people sitting out save the same % as if they were investing? Through many anecdotal conversations with peers, I can say those who haven't prioritized investing almost never save as much as peers who do.
However, for those who have prioritized and actively invested before, since you've pulled money out, have you continued to save the same %? Do you have a separate account that's identical as if it were invested or was some pissed away on dinners, hobbies, vacation etc?