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Last week, the dividend yield on the S&P500 was lower than the 10 year Treasury yield. What is the excess of beta for the market over the ten year Treasury? Yes, there are other elements of return to holding the equity, including capital gains/growth, but when the cash yield on a portfolio with a beta of 1 is roughly the same as the cash yield on a security with a beta probably 1/5th that, I start to wonder.
Really? I'd be surprised if Dow did not hit 35k in 2021
Seeking education here. How does the market have "excess beta" when I thought the market was the benchmark for beta = 1 and individual stocks were given a beta relative to the market's beta = 1?
I'd rather you do some minimal speaking so I don't have figure it out.
People always bring up the Shiller PE as some bell to ring. Now without looking, what was the Shiller PE at the bottom in 2009? How long did it stay below the average Shiller PE at the time?
Are the graphs meant to illustrate all the dumb money going into the market? Maybe reminiscent of 1999 and all the retail money day trading on all those new E-Trade types of platforms?Come on now, a picture is worth a thousands words, so I've given you 3,000 from the kindness of my heart
With so much of the market's value in tech stocks, it's debatable how we should use historical PEs. Maybe we should split the market's cap between tech (and use historical PEG) and non tech (use historical PE) - and sum the partsCurrently, we are close to 3 standard deviations above the long term geometric mean. In 2009, the measure bottomed out well short of 1 standard deviation below that long term mean.
Are the graphs meant to illustrate all the dumb money going into the market? Maybe reminiscent of 1999 and all the retail money day trading on all those new E-Trade types of platforms?
I don't disagree that there's a Robinhood bubble somewhere in here. But I also think that we're on the verge of the most dramatic economic recovery curve we've ever seen in modern days. Monetary policy, stimulus spending, high consumer savings, pent up demand for entire segments of the economy, not to mention healthcare demand is now up a step function from pre-Covid, etc... Perfect storm scenario. There's a reason institutional investors are long this market. It has a significant potential for upside surprise.
(and I was taught financial markets by Roubini so I'm not always a rosy outlook guy)
Which came on the heels of mass mobilization and entire economies geared towards war returning to civilian live. I’ve heard that comparison a lot, but we where on the gold standard back then, trade patterns where very different and again, the world came out of a very destructive war.There's been a thought we'll get our own "Roaring 20s" for exactly this reason, and not for nothing, the original R-20s came after the Spanish Flu pandemic.
Are the graphs meant to illustrate all the dumb money going into the market? Maybe reminiscent of 1999 and all the retail money day trading on all those new E-Trade types of platforms?
I don't disagree that there's a Robinhood bubble somewhere in here. But I also think that we're on the verge of the most dramatic economic recovery curve we've ever seen in modern days. Monetary policy, stimulus spending, high consumer savings, pent up demand for entire segments of the economy, not to mention healthcare demand is now up a step function from pre-Covid, etc... Perfect storm scenario. There's a reason institutional investors are long this market. It has a significant potential for upside surprise.
(and I was taught financial markets by Roubini so I'm not always a rosy outlook guy)
With so much of the market's value in tech stocks, it's debatable how we should use historical PEs. Maybe we should split the market's cap between tech (and use historical PEG) and non tech (use historical PE) - and sum the parts