Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[gdl203]

There's nothing wrong with your strategy or writing puts (as long as you understand the risk, which you do). All I was saying, and maybe it wasn't coming through clearly, is that it sounded from your rationale that you have a long term point of view on this stock, but you're using a short term strategy to execute it. I don't get it. I feel like buying and holding the underlying or buying an out of the money call is the appropriate strategy for a bullish sentiment. The risk profile is entirely understood without having to rely on outs that have an unclear cost and counterparty risk.

I'm just curious why you don't apply a classic long term approach to a long term bullish sentiment. That's all. Not here to give any advice or second guess your trade.

 

[Piobaire]

A combo of just having some fun and being a thrifty Scot trying to squeeze something out of possibly nothing.

 

[Piobaire]

Wow, what a bloodbath this week. OM no doubt is making huge bank as I know he was prepared for this.

 

[cross22]

It's ******* brutal...

 

[gnatty8]

Worst is yet to come. Maybe not next week or the week after, but its inevitable. That or get ready for sub-bond yield returns from most equities for years to come.

 

[gdl203]

Really? I'd be surprised if Dow did not hit 35k in 2021

 

[otc]

Worst is yet to come. Maybe not next week or the week after, but its inevitable. That or get ready for sub-bond yield returns from most equities for years to come.

Let's aim for next Wednesday please.

 

[jbarwick]

Wow, what a bloodbath this week. OM no doubt is making huge bank as I know he was prepared for this.

Wasn't he out at like Dow 23K? Plus he moved to more boring things lately.

Worst is yet to come. Maybe not next week or the week after, but its inevitable. That or get ready for sub-bond yield returns from most equities for years to come.

Tech is down big but the broader market is <10% off highs. Every time you post this I have to remind you about March of last year...the world shut down and the S&P was only off 33%.

 

[javyn]

 

[brokencycle]

It has been a brutal week? DOW is only down 1%, S&P 2%.

 

[Piobaire]

When I said that SPY was down from 394 last week to 372 for a 5.5% decline. I'd call that brutal in such a short time.

 

[gnatty8]

Wasn't he out at like Dow 23K? Plus he moved to more boring things lately.



Tech is down big but the broader market is <10% off highs. Every time you post this I have to remind you about March of last year...the world shut down and the S&P was only off 33%.

Why are the highs relevant? Are those highs indicative of long term fundamental value? Do those highs pay my neighbor's rent or my father's health insurance premiums? Last week, the dividend yield on the S&P500 was lower than the 10 year Treasury yield. What is the excess of beta for the market over the ten year Treasury? Yes, there are other elements of return to holding the equity, including capital gains/growth, but when the cash yield on a portfolio with a beta of 1 is roughly the same as the cash yield on a security with a beta probably 1/5th that, I start to wonder. Just like folks looked around housing markets in California, Florida, almost anywhere, in the late 2000s and thought nothing whatsoever was wrong with THOSE valuations, I believe the average investor is fooling themselves similarly in the current environment.

I actually hope I am wrong, and this is some kind of new paradigm, because then at worst, I've left several months of capital appreciation on the table, and the smaller portion of my assets I left in equities will soothe some of that hit.

Also, the fact that the world shut down amidst a once in a generation pandemic and the S&P regained what it lost in less than 90 trading days is kind of my point.

 

[venividivicibj]

There's nothing wrong with your strategy or writing puts (as long as you understand the risk, which you do). All I was saying, and maybe it wasn't coming through clearly, is that it sounded from your rationale that you have a long term point of view on this stock, but you're using a short term strategy to execute it. I don't get it. I feel like buying and holding the underlying or buying an out of the money call is the appropriate strategy for a bullish sentiment. The risk profile is entirely understood without having to rely on outs that have an unclear cost and counterparty risk.

I'm just curious why you don't apply a classic long term approach to a long term bullish sentiment. That's all. Not here to give any advice or second guess your trade.

Pio is in his ‘day trader’ shtick right now. It’ll pass in ~1 month or so. Still think it’s better than the ‘Lean Fire’ shtick. At least no debates over re-using toilet paper costs.

 

[jbarwick]

Why are the highs relevant? Are those highs indicative of long term fundamental value? Do those highs pay my neighbor's rent or my father's health insurance premiums? Last week, the dividend yield on the S&P500 was lower than the 10 year Treasury yield. What is the excess of beta for the market over the ten year Treasury? Yes, there are other elements of return to holding the equity, including capital gains/growth, but when the cash yield on a portfolio with a beta of 1 is roughly the same as the cash yield on a security with a beta probably 1/5th that, I start to wonder. Just like folks looked around housing markets in California, Florida, almost anywhere, in the late 2000s and thought nothing whatsoever was wrong with THOSE valuations, I believe the average investor is fooling themselves similarly in the current environment.

I actually hope I am wrong, and this is some kind of new paradigm, because then at worst, I've left several months of capital appreciation on the table, and the smaller portion of my assets I left in equities will soothe some of that hit.

Also, the fact that the world shut down amidst a once in a generation pandemic and the S&P regained what it lost in less than 90 trading days is kind of my point.

The Stock Market Is Usually Right - The Irrelevant Investor

The stock market always sees things before we do

theirrelevantinvestor.com

 

[gnatty8]

I'll just kind of leave these here to speak for themselves.