Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[imatlas]

something like 6 months - 1 year minimum

My recent guesstimate was that it would take 3 years to vaccinate 50% of the global population. Manufacturing and distributing 4.5 billion doses won’t happen fast, or evenly.

 

[Piobaire]

There is of course a billion unknowns, but if one were paying attention to Fauci's comments this week, they're already stockpiling the vaccines in trial and should have 100 million if it clears FDA approval around November with over 200 million to give by early 2021. That's just US production.

I think I have a fairly decent handle this isn't a snap of the fingers but am commenting on what I believe "the market" is counting on.

 

[PhilKenSebben]

Working in pharma for one of those companies that is making a vaccine (but not working on it myself) and knowing quite a bit about the overall manufacturing process, don't bet the farm on millions of doses being available in October or January, even if they are made. Plus, I personally wouldn't take a rushed vaccine with limited trials until lots and lots of other people have done it, but your mileage may vary

 

[Piobaire]

They're doing 30k in Phase III, no?

 

[Guccinski L.V.]

I am not sure what NYSE is 'counting' on or 'pricing in' , I think they are all delusional. Market was overpriced in November December 2019 and was expected to go into recession in 2020. 11 Years of continuous expansion was getting too long in a tooth and many analysts were predicting 20% contraction. Valuations were out of wack. And then we got WW Economic shut down, pandemia and riots on the streets now. Most economists predict that 20 to 40% of unemployed would have to be re-trained as they would not have the same jobs to go back to after economy reopens. Many businesses are going bankrupt and those that manage to survive will reopen to a much smaller revenue and consumer demand. The fact that people who lost jobs are low wage workers is not very relevant or should I say dismissing them based on that factor is shortsighted as they are the ones that drive consumer demand by spending most of their earnings instead of stashing them in stocks. So ,imho, low wage unemployed will have dramatic negative effect on consumer demand. In the best case scenario we will reopen to the US economy that is 80% of its former self. Does market price all of this in? I am not even talking about supply chain disruption with Asia and recession in EU zone. UK will be a basket case economically once they are on another side of the pandemic.
The NYSE will go down in flames.

 

[Piobaire]

So you have a punch of puts in play?

 

[PhilKenSebben]

They're doing 30k in Phase III, no?

It is the time from start to finish that has me worried. most vaccines take much longer than this to develop, AND they evolve over time often. Even if it is just little tweaks. So a fast study with a larger group is good sure... But I would rather wait longer personally before I trust it.

 

[HRoi]

We’ll get the vaccine just in time for COVID20

 

[Piobaire]

What happened to the first 18?

?‍♂️

 

[the shah]

There is of course a billion unknowns, but if one were paying attention to Fauci's comments this week, they're already stockpiling the vaccines in trial and should have 100 million if it clears FDA approval around November with over 200 million to give by early 2021. That's just US production.

I think I have a fairly decent handle this isn't a snap of the fingers but am commenting on what I believe "the market" is counting on.

interesting that hcq was strongly dismissed but it turns out the firm had no basis for the clai

Science | AAAS

blogs.sciencemag.org

meanwhile gilead will stand to make $4-7bn on remdesivir

Gilead's remdesivir could see $7 billion in annual sales on stockpiling boost: analyst

Gilead Sciences Inc's <GILD.O> potential COVID-19 treatment, remdesivir, could bring in more than $7 billion in annual sales by 2022, spurred by governments stockpiling the drug to guard against future outbreaks, SVB Leerink said on Wednesday.

mobile.reuters.com

 

[lawyerdad]

I am not sure what NYSE is 'counting' on or 'pricing in' , I think they are all delusional. Market was overpriced in November December 2019 and was expected to go into recession in 2020. 11 Years of continuous expansion was getting too long in a tooth and many analysts were predicting 20% contraction. Valuations were out of wack. And then we got WW Economic shut down, pandemia and riots on the streets now. Most economists predict that 20 to 40% of unemployed would have to be re-trained as they would not have the same jobs to go back to after economy reopens. Many businesses are going bankrupt and those that manage to survive will reopen to a much smaller revenue and consumer demand. The fact that people who lost jobs are low wage workers is not very relevant or should I say dismissing them based on that factor is shortsighted as they are the ones that drive consumer demand by spending most of their earnings instead of stashing them in stocks. So ,imho, low wage unemployed will have dramatic negative effect on consumer demand. In the best case scenario we will reopen to the US economy that is 80% of its former self. Does market price all of this in? I am not even talking about supply chain disruption with Asia and recession in EU zone. UK will be a basket case economically once they are on another side of the pandemic.
The NYSE will go down in flames.

Good time to lower dat basis.

 

[Piobaire]

More money has been made averaging down than you can shake a stick at.

 

[venividivicibj]

What happened to the first 18?

?‍♂️

Trial and error man. A lot of bats were sacrificed. PETA was not happy.

 

[Guccinski L.V.]

We’ll get the vaccine just in time for COVID20-PRO

FTFY

 

[venividivicibj]

FTFY

"the cloud based solution"