Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    Sigh, you see with this ZNGA thing...nobody cares about the long term sustainability of these companies. All that money going out in bonuses because what they showed up first and built it??
     


  2. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    Look at these analysts trying to squash the BAC rally. See you at $10 by October.
     


  3. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Ya, its bad timing. The stock had some steam behind it. I can sell now and make 60% but I do believe its 12-15$ by the end of the year.
     


  4. melwoesblvd

    melwoesblvd Senior member

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    will it touch 7 on it's way back down?
     


  5. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    It's touching 7's now boy.
     


  6. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Prly, depends on the broader market
     


  7. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    picked up a couple shares of apple today, but kinda bummed cause it dropped 10 bucks after i bought it.

    I'm still so confused as to what's driving all this crazy movement with apple.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012


  8. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Simple: earnings.

    Stocks move on earnings, news, yield, macro economic trends, and more and more on formulas behind high frequency trading

    The only one that sustains any movement up or down are earnings and yield (much less so). Corrections are normal, but the story here is earnings. It may well be the market holds AAPL in the 460 to 526 trading range a while, even until the next earnings cycle. Today technicals took over when it ran out of buyers at 526. It went up too fast.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012


  9. melwoesblvd

    melwoesblvd Senior member

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    playing on earnings is fucking russian roulette with my portfolio and i swear i've been shot like 3 times already but still somehow I'm alive
     


  10. stevent

    stevent Senior member

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    You could always buy options early if you're worried
     


  11. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    i know this.. but apple released their earnings awhile ago.

    i just don't see any significant news regarding apple that justifiably fueled the run-up and today's downturn.
     


  12. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Stocks are to earnings as hookers are to sex.

    A stock's a bet on future performance and trade on a multiple of their earnings. More sentiment = higher PE.

    Say you have a 100$ stock with a PE of 10. It earns $10 per share per year. Say they beat earnings by $1. That brings the PE down to around 9. There is value now, so the stock (all things equal) will trend up to fill that vacuum, around $110.

    Now say there is now great expectation on a huge product. That could move the price too, but only form the perspective of a bet on better future earnings so the PE could moves to 15 and a price of $165. Add another huge earnings beat, the expectation is fulfilled. $220. Add another huge product that increases earnings again. $300. And again. $400. Again. $500, all with a PE of 15.

    That's Apple, $500 with a PE of around 15, or $35 a share in earnings which is what Apple now makes.

    There is the reason for your run up. Apple is just filling the vacuum created by its earnings smash. It doesnt need news when it has earnings. In fact it should command a higher PE if the economy were better.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012


  13. CYstyle

    CYstyle Senior member

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    die stocks die >=]
     


  14. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Big moment for me just happened. Bought GOOG on the very first day of trading. Just sold most of my stake. Kept a bit for the long long long haul but I felt it was time to move out of it with 2 misses in the last 4 quarters.

    GOOG, I salute and thank you for the 500% return.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2012


  15. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    I hope you got in when it hit the 7's. LOL
     


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