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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. stimulacra

    stimulacra Senior member

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    What's new in the Rolex world? I lust after the Milguass green crystal and the Pepsi GMT Master.
     
  2. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    You can discuss all the stocks you want. If you are living off of your buffer and your largest holding is high risk, you must have a very high risk tolerance or would be ok enjoying cat food.
     
  3. Texasmade

    Texasmade Senior member

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    SS sports models are easy to get in the US except the Daytona. All SS sports models are impossible to get in the UK. Rest of Europe is tough but not impossible.

    Circle jerk for Rolex owners talking how they'd pick Rolex over other brands like AP or PP since Rolex is more sturdy, RO and Nautilus are scratch magnets, etc.
     
  4. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    Yup. Also, part of it has to do with the strategy to handle a certain deferred comp account I have and that's where the bond funds are being held.
     
  5. stimulacra

    stimulacra Senior member

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    From the limited back testing I've done, it seems like 10% bonds would really only smooth over the rough patches, over any meaningful window I've seen, it doesn't dramatically affect upside performance too much.

    I'm at 25% bonds myself nowadays and you definitely see some dramatic deviation from an “all equity” benchmark.

    @effay I would flip those allocations in the other directions if it was me. 70% Index, 20% cash, 10% high risk stock. Nassim Taleb discusses “barbell strategy” in his book “Anti-fragile” that's of interest on how to balance ultra-high risk portfolios.
     
    Piobaire likes this.
  6. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    Stim, thanks for the insight. This was more along the lines of getting my feet wet I think. From the research I've been able to find it looks like the average peak to trough for bear market is 15 months, and the average peak to trough to regaining the peak is about 40 months. That means I've actually got many years until this particular fund needs to be 100% in bonds and this was just to sort of get me used to not being 100% equity.
     
  7. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Senior member

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    Anyone else thinking about early retirement? Given how expensive it is where I live, my wife and I are semi-seriously considering getting out of the game and retiring to the mountains. Healthcare is the major expense-side wildcard, but I think if Obamacare was here to stay we would be good to go.

    We are unlikely to 100% retire because it's so easy these days to do remote work on a contract basis but if we forego certain luxuries (paying for the kids' education) I think we have enough. Also, given the current demand for professional services, we could probably make enough working 10 hours per week each (on average - I think the work would end up pretty choppy so I might have 100 hours one month and nothing the next) so that we wouldn't even need to touch our capital.

    I think the biggest hurdle for us is probably inertia. We like where we live and mostly think it's a good place for the kids to grow up. Not sure that taking them to a mountain town is what they would want if they were old enough to have an opinion. It's entirely possible that they would prefer life up the hill (I would have been cool with it as a kid) but I meet a lot of people who say they would have preferred to grow up where we live. Also we're still in our 30's, so I'm not sure how we model appropriate adult behavior when we are choosing a life of leisure. On the plus side, we have friends in the mountains so it would be a relatively easy transition and it's so much more affordable.

    We had previously been planning to wait until the youngest is in college to shut it down, but really wondering whether we should consider making a bold decision in the next few years.

    How does this relate to this thread? Two fold. First - I think if we're serious about early retirement we should probably do more to maximize our taxable accounts and getting serious about asset allocation because that's what we would be drawing from for 20 years. Second - Is the fact that I'm considering this really just another signal that we are at the top of the market? I probably wouldn't feel the same way if this were March 2009 and everything else was ceteris paribus.
     
  8. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    Go read that Mr. Money Moustache blog. They'll teach you how to live on 30k a year!

    You seem to have some comfortable tastes for living. I think the idea of never totally retiring is a good one. I have plans for consulting in my early retirement geared around the concept of getting to live in different cities for months at a time with the bulk of expenses getting charged to my consulting LLC. You should probably work until 50 or more then go this route.
     
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  9. jcman311

    jcman311 Senior member

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    We may not share the same views, but funding my kids college (or trade school, etc) is a priority for us. With our retirement kickstarted, its the next option for most on the list. Yourself, your kids, etc. A paid education was something that I never had but my wife did. We both agree that she was in the better situation at the end of it.
    It might be hard to sit back in "retirement" only to watch your kids struggle with finances in college.
    I never really plan on fully retiring. My dad still works and he's pushing 70.
     
  10. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Senior member

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    Yes, there is lots to think about. The biggest factor is the delta between cost of living for what we consider an acceptable life where we are now vs in the mountains. For example - with education I was referring more to private K-12 than college. Private tuition is $30k per kid plus they want annual donations for operating and capital campaigns. Seeding a large 529 might be something we do before we decamp, but we wouldn't be able to pay for private education K-12. Education is just one example of a large expense that we would consider superfluous if we lived in the mountains. I'm also not saying we couldn't do the public school route where live - in fact that's our current plan - but there's a chance we don't get into the school we want and it's nice to be able to afford a good school. Wouldn't be an issue if we moved up the hill.

    A more rational approach might be to slow down our lives and find a more affordable place to live that's in our area but that really doesn't hold much appeal for either of us. We would gain more time with the kids and less job stress, but we wouldn't be able to enjoy everything that the area has to offer. On the other hand, the best things to do in the mountains are generally free or cheap and we happen to love doing those things plus we have friends with leisurely jobs that would do those things with us.

    We probably won't do it because it's drastic, but I have a funny feeling that we would be happier and certainly healthier if we did. Of course all this assumes there is some form of affordable healthcare, because if you have to spend $25k per year for a family of four, it really changes the calculus.
     
  11. Texasmade

    Texasmade Senior member

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    Lol. I guess dumpster diving and not showering or shitting can help him save money.
     
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  12. jcman311

    jcman311 Senior member

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    Ah, I went and reread with the additional info on secondary schooling. It might be the current market that you are feeling. But also, the fact that secondary schooling makes you hesitate instead of post-secondary speaks loudly to where you are currently. Not knowing the age of kid(s), have you discussed with them?

    Sounds like a great idea though. How hard would it be to get out if climates change? Would you be able to go back and get similar employment, etc. if the worst case happened?
     
  13. venividivicibj

    venividivicibj Senior member

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  14. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Senior member

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    To answer your questions:

    I haven't read MMM but based on what I've heard it's not our style.

    Right now we're in a city with mixed schools. Closest elementary school is pretty good but we're not guaranteed to get in. That feeds into a good middle school. High school is a total crapshoot. Most people I know try to shoot the moon for public school, don't get into one the want and then go the private school route or move out of the city to the burbs.

    My kids are super young (just toddlers) so we're not quite at that decision point.

    I think it would be relatively difficult for me to resume my career in its current state, but I could probably obtain some sort of gainful employment. The thing is, and this might sound crazy but it's a little bit all or nothing since I really think I need 4 or 5x the income to live here vs the mountains. I think if I shut down my career now (for more than a year or two) it would be very difficult to pick back up at the same level and therefore very difficult to make enough to have the sort of lifestyle we would want to have in our area. Given where the jobs are and how bad traffic is, there aren't that many places with decent commutes that we would both want to live in and they are all extremely expensive.

    I realize these are all first world problems and overall we're pretty happy people but just trying to explore whether a big change would make us happier overall.
     
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  15. brokencycle

    brokencycle Senior member

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    Are there cheaper private schools? I don't have kids, and by the time I do have kids in school age, I doubt we'll be where we are, but we live one of the best districts in the state, but I'd still consider private school - there are private schools that charge $30k/yr here, but they're mostly a status thing IMO - there are really good private schools in terms of education for $5-6k/yr/kid.

    If I remember right, you're a lawyer, so it might not be super relevant to you, but check out hourlynerd: places post for finance/marketing/general MBA type stuff all the time. I can't believe all the $25k+ projects on there.
     
  16. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    I think it's good to examine your life and at least consider putting it on a completely different path. Mrs. Piob and I are approaching our 20th anniversary and were reminiscing at dinner last night how when we got together in our late 20s we had absolutely nothing and moved thousands of miles away from our respective homes. Seemed like a questionable choice to everyone around us but I don't think our lives and careers would have blossomed if we'd stayed put. If nothing else it's a good mental exercise to consider the possibility of a huge change.
     
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  17. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Senior member

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    Haven't heard of hourlynerd, thanks. Yup - I'm an attorney and there are a number of different places where I could do project-based work, not to mention just hitting up my contacts.

    As for private schools, I don't think you can get anywhere near $6k here. I would guess the cheapest is about $15k but all private schools are competitive (I can't tell you how many people have told me it was more difficult to get their kid into kindergarten than it was to get into a good college) so even if you choose based on price you might not be able to get your kids in. There are other options available - we could refactor our life here by finding jobs in a suburb and moving close by which would result in reliable public schools. A lot of our limitations are self-imposed. There are a lot of "nice" places here that I wouldn't want to live and the places I do want to live are quite expensive ($1k+ per square foot). On the other hand, I'm confident we could find a place we are happy with in the mountains for say $500k.

    Piob - I agree it's a worthwhile exercise. I don't want to just go through the motions and assume that current limitations or conditions are permanent. Just talking about changing things has given us more agency. Plato said "an unexamined life is not worth living." I'm not sure I would go quite that far, but directionally think he was onto something.
     
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  18. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    I was looking at this the other day if we decided to shut it down in another 15 years which would put us in our mid-40s. If you have 25x your annual expenses, you have a roughly 80% chance to not run out of money for 50 years. This does not take into account inflation.

    Also another issue arises where you money is kept because there are age minimums on certain retirement assets otherwise there is a penalty. I think we could retire at 55 but that is so far into the future it is hard to aim for just that age.
     
  19. jcman311

    jcman311 Senior member

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    I think this kind of talk is much more valuable than the "I can retire tomorrow if I hit up the BK dumpster for 2 meals a day and never shower" type of talk on those other forums. I agree that it is good to examine things now. Its like an alternative plan. I might also justify keeping on your current path and allows a basis if you revisit in a few years if markets/environment have changed.
     
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  20. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    I got a much later start in being a productive citizen than you guys so I will probably work until 65 and then explore consulting opportunities. I can tell you though, when you know the house will paid off in a few years, the retirement accounts are looking fat, it gets really hard to not allow yourself to start considering early retirement. The main thing I keep focused on is knowing I want to travel extensively, and in style, and I don't plan to suddenly switch to Buicks and Sizzlers when I retire.
     

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