Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Concordia]

VXX is holding up nicely. Too bad it's only in my smallest account.

 

[dizzy]

I've been stockpiling shares of UVXY for the past few months. This is like a second Christmas for me right now. Still getting fucked by oil and GoPro though

 

[GreenFrog]

I WANT QE4 NOW!!!!!!!!

I DESERVE GAINS!!!!

 

[UnFacconable]

For anyone who is spooked by the recent blip, here's a good thread from bogleheads: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=79939

Basically it's a good opportunity for people to be honest with themselves about their true risk appetite. During bull markets people who think they can handle outsize risk aren't always confronted with the downside of that risk. Now is one such time to stare risk in the eye.

Here's the most relevant portion:

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The point is, the last few weeks were a time when some risk showed up, and your job is to process it. The temptation is to deal with the discomfort by choosing a prediction. Don't. Your job is to confront the reality of that uncertainty, that you do not know what will happen, and can only make the roughest guesses as to the likelihood of all these scenarios.

Hopefully, you can say "well, yeah, I knew all that. I'd much rather see the market go up and I feel anxious, but I'm able to stay the course."

Unfortunately, if you look at all this and conclude that your exposure to the stock market is higher than your risk tolerance, there aren't any good options. It is absolutely a personal decision. The only sure way to reduce stock market risk substantially is to cut back on your stock allocation. Diversification, fiddling around with different flavors of stock, it's all bandaids. When stocks plunge, they plunge. So the S&P drops 50% and your portfolio drops 46%, big deal.

And when the stock market is falling, you can't cut back on your stock market risk without locking in a loss. It's a tough one and a personal decision. You absolutely have to measure one against the other. It's crazy to even suggest a course of action to anyone else and I'm not going to try.

What I'm saying is that this is a good time for evaluation. The risk is here. Don't exaggerate it--we all love drama, but reality is usually more boring than we expect. Don't brush it aside, look it in the eye as carefully as you can. And then look at how you really feel about it--not how you'd like to feel or how you think you're supposed to feel.

And one final thought. If we're lucky, and the stock market comes back at least part way and seems to stabilize for a while... or if it comes roaring back and soars (yes, that' could happen, too)... don't forget how you feel right now. If you feel that you are close to the edge of your risk tolerance right now, then you have too much in stocks. If you manage to tough it out and we get a calm spell, don't forget how you feel now and at least consider making an adjustment then.

 

[GreenFrog]

Very good read. At this point in time with all the information and I have and what I've seen, staying the course is still a no brainer for me.

If I see my **** drop 20, 30, 40%? I dunno. Time to buy? I don't want to be the chump that sells cause he's scared and making emotional decisions.

 

[jbarwick]

I didn't buy today as my allocation would have been to bonds and international funds. We are not quite to August lows and September end of the month dips but we will see what tomorrow holds. Maybe a positive end to the first week of the year?

I saw that bogleheads link earlier as I like to go see what people are talking about during drops in the market.

 

[chogall]

I didn't buy today as my allocation would have been to bonds and international funds. We are not quite to August lows and September end of the month dips but we will see what tomorrow holds. Maybe a positive end to the first week of the year?

I saw that bogleheads link earlier as I like to go see what people are talking about during drops in the market.

Boglehead strat is outdated; it usually lags significantly during bull market, protects well in bear markets, but still can't narrow the performance gap after bear market ended.

It's more sensible to do allocation with some type of momentum factors, absolute or relative. It will massively improves the bull market performance, retain similar bear market/drawdown protection. Tho it still won't out perform in flat markets similar to, say, late 2014-2015, due to the use of momentum.

 

[chogall]

Very good read. At this point in time with all the information and I have and what I've seen, staying the course is still a no brainer for me.

If I see my **** drop 20, 30, 40%? I dunno. Time to buy? I don't want to be the chump that sells cause he's scared and making emotional decisions.

You will likely not have enough cash to add long after a 40% drawdown all while your margin account shrinks.

 

[GreenFrog]



You will likely not have enough cash to add long after a 40% drawdown all while your margin account shrinks.

While I have a margin account, I have zero positions paid on margin.

 

[skeen7908]

Someone tell me when to buy in, I'm 80% cash right now

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

I have buy orders in for DOW, BAC and WFC....if 'Scared about CHina' continues then they will likely turn into processed orders.

Even if these positions continue toward the downside, they will reinvest their dividends at lower prices. IMO, not the time to freak out and sell like crazy....or maybe it is

 

[GreenFrog]

My thing is I feel reasonably confident that over, say, the next 5-10 years, the stock market will go up. So I'm not freaking out about money lost forever. I don't think we'll see what happened to Japan.

No.

What I'm freaked out about is I'm not going to hit my personal wealth goals I set for myself by age 30 if I'm hit with a fat bear market paw in the face starting, well, now.

It would delay my goals by ******* several years. That's what freaks me out. I don't want to wait five ******* years for my **** to break even.

I guess I entered the stock market at a pretty good time -- around mid 2011, and I've never gone through a legit bear market like during the Great Recession, so I'm still pretty naive from that perspective.

 

[chogall]

My thing is I feel reasonably confident that over, say, the next 5-10 years, the stock market will go up. So I'm not freaking out about money lost forever. I don't think we'll see what happened to Japan.

No.

What I'm freaked out about is I'm not going to hit my personal wealth goals I set for myself by age 30 if I'm hit with a fat bear market paw in the face starting, well, now.

It would delay my goals by ******* several years. That's what freaks me out. I don't want to wait five ******* years for my **** to break even.

I guess I entered the stock market at a pretty good time -- around mid 2011, and I've never gone through a legit bear market like during the Great Recession, so I'm still pretty naive from that perspective.

Here's my honest $0.02 with all the misinterpreted and biased information out there to sell you stuff.

You could, definitely, make the same assumption that the stock market will go up over the next 5-10 years, but realistically speaking it will not always be true. Stop looking at those 100 year chart of stock market growth; most people, aside from trust fund kids or teenage lottery winners, will have around less than 60 years of their life to invest. By and large, the most important factor of their investment return is the date that they were born, not how or where they invested.

Case in point, an engineer getting out of EECS degree in 2001 is most likely going to be laid off or suffer long drawn out period of mediocre income with no stock options. Or an MBA graduate in 2008 is most likely not being able to find any job in Finance when pink slips are started to fly. Or, put it in another way, people who started working and investing in 2000/2007 will have, as a whole, a much lower total return than those who started in 2002/2009. Tough ******* luck. Your investment return potential has mostly been decided the day you were born.

Thus, IMO, its best to focus on two things - avoiding drawdowns and catching momentums.

 

[gettoasty]

^ How's that for a truism!

 

[tropics]



What I'm freaked out about is I'm not going to hit my personal wealth goals I set for myself by age 30 if I'm hit with a fat bear market paw in the face starting, well, now.

It would delay my goals by ******* several years. That's what freaks me out. I don't want to wait five ******* years for my **** to break even.

does anyone have a gif or some kind of image of a tiny violin?