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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

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    ^ good to know, thanks. I'm eyeing both of these and ideally would like to get in at 50 and 75 (Nike and Lauder respectively) but also don't want to miss by aiming for rock bottom. I did it with LULU for example. Bought at 55, flipped at 58 and was waiting for it to come down again then suddenly it shot up to 70. So I may just take my bit a bit higher than I wanted. I'm ok with being down 5-10%, for a chance to be up 20-30% later. And both of these guys have been around a while, are pretty diversified and will no doubt figure it out and go back at it again. That's my reasoning anyway.
     
  2. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Wouldn't the right way to do it be to do some development work, but also create a prize for anyone who can do it wearing Nike?

    FWIW, unless you are sponsored, if you are trying to use a shoe for hardcore athletic use rather than style, shouldn't you purely be looking at comfort/fit/performance?

    If X makes the best running shoe for your foot and stride, then who cares that you've "always liked Y"?
     
  3. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

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    Alright, ideally I'd prefer closer to 50 but I think I'm going to open a position on NKE at 52 and add at 50 to a full position and if it goes down another 5% then I'll add 25-30% more to it.

    Also waiting on Lauder to get closer to 75-77 before getting in.

    Today I sold my MCC position. Could go higher but I figured I bought it under 7 roughly 10 days ago, it was at 7.7 now, so a quick flip for 10% gain, in and out and I'll take it and run. Got a buy order for under 7 again and done.


    Question for y'all. GoPro... so 52 week low here more or less. Are we seeing a slow death of a fad company? Potential buyout? Possible turnaround with new better products (drones?). I just don't know the sector and I've heard bad stories about these guys for years in terms of the stock but at a 52 week low do you think it's been punished enough and has a chance, or just waiting to die and should be avoided. Thoughts?

    SUN - damn, so one bank downgrades, they drop 8%, I was soooo close to my limit order getting filled which would have added 50% to my position. Few days later a different bank gives a good rating and the dam thing goes up nearly 15%. If it goes up a bit more (10%?) I'm selling out. This could be solid long term and I've read good comments about them, but I'm happy to take a 20% gain more or less in a couple of months and walk.
     
  4. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    GPRO does not have an upgraded cycle like other products which makes me question it as a public company. Similar to that is FIT which sells a bracelet to count steps. I'd stay away.

    Also NKE is actually priced better than its competitors from a multiple standpoint so you have that going for you. Similar though AAPL is priced at a discount from competitors but it hasn't done much.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Asking again. Anyone know?
     
  6. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    @idfnl - You could buy bit coins and hold them or the Winklevoss twins I think started an ETF. To buy bitcoins you would have to find one of the marketplaces that sell them unless you find somewhere to exchange favors in return for BC. . .
     
  7. otc

    otc Senior member

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    You could always start bitcoin mining...although I am not sure how profitable that is anymore.


    Yeah, gopro is sketchy, at least in terms of being a big public company. My camera is several years old and it still does everything I want from it (actually, I never use it, which is probably what happens to most gopros). More and more companies are making comparable products now. I see why the owners would want the public $$$, but they probably would have more longevity as a private company (or a subsidiary of a larger group) without needing to answer to quarterly shareholder demands. They could start making drones or something, but drones are probably harder than cameras, and the dronemakers already make comparable cameras. I saw a listing of hte best 360* cameras the other day...no gopro product included since their option on the market is "buy 6 of our cameras and stick them together".

    Fitbit could do some interesting things with their acquisition of Pebble. At least I hope they do (I was sad to see Pebble go, was looking forward to their new products). Considering how many people they have talked into wearing bands that don't even tell you the time...if they could parlay that into a "simple" smartwatch with fitness features and a full-week battery life, polish it a little more than Pebble, and market it well? That could have legs...and at least provides a viable and repeatable upgrade path for customers.
     
  8. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

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    Hmmm, good food for thought guys. I have a history and catching falling knives and then trying to work my way out. I guess my strategy has been to find decent companies that have been oversold or going through a rough patch for a fixible reason but some of my buys have been companies that are just declining and never quite recover. I cancelled my GPRO buy order and think I'm just going to stay away from them. I mean has NKE declined all this year? Sure, but they're way more likely to work their way back. GPRO is a bit of a one trick pony and it's old news. I was thinking there could be a big jump with a buyout option but it's just not worth the risk I think. Thanks for the comments guys.
     
  9. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    The Winkelvos ETF is not available yet. I was looking at just buying it outright last night. I can create a digital wallet and just keep them there. I was hoping that it would be possible to own it in my 401k, but interactive brokers doesn't support it as a currency in Forex either.





    Mining is never going to make money at this point unless it's highly scaled.

    GPRO is a one hit wonder. Down in my bottom 10 with TWTR and VRX. Fitbit is likely the same shit, though the wife swears by it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2016
  10. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    One week left in 2016, and while I've given back a few k of my unexpected surge, our portfolio increased roughly six percent since November 9th.
     
  11. stimulacra

    stimulacra Senior member

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    What happened with healthcare yesterday? VGHCX (Vanguard's Healthcare Sector fund) took a 4.5% hit it looks like.
     
  12. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    I sold my short term stake in IBB but it's still in my ticker. Up 2% yesterday.
     
  13. taxgenius

    taxgenius Senior member

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    Your'e off on the wash sale calc. The loss is deferred by adding the deferred loss to the basis of the newly acquired shares. So your new basis is 11 not 10.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2016
  14. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    If only you would have purchased sooner you could have laughed at us mortals using greenbacks still: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bove-900-on-geopolitical-risks-fed-tightening
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

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    Couple of questions for you guys..

    1. My theory is that near the end of the year people are going to sell off some stock to claim losses, and the places they'll do it is with companies that have had a long slow down run and don't seem to be going anywhere for a while, and are being held by a lot of average Joe's. As in ones like GILD and NKE. So my guess is that they'll drop more before the end of the year and then pick back up within a few months. As in I've lowered my buy orders a bit assuming they'll come down 3-5% before year end, as a temporary dip. Does that make any sense?

    2. If I think Trump is an idiot and loose canon and bound to say or do something brash... then what are some good ways to play this? I was thinking of (indirectly) buying volatility (VXX/VIXY or longer term like VIXM/VZ). Are these something you can buy and hold for 6 months waiting for a spike? (According to https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2010/01/how-to-go-long-on-the-vix-index-2/, they say "it is also not suitable as a long-term holding due to the fact that the VIX futures that the fund tracks are usually decreasing in value over time. This drag, called roll loss occurs when the futures are in contango. It usually extracts 5% to 10% a month out of VXX’s price"). Is this the way to play a 'I think something unexpected will happen' expectation? Based on the above site, they're saying it's a trading instrument, not something to hold with any duration.

    The other idea I was thinking of is flight to safety places like gold or Bitcoin as discussed above. Or bonds I guess. I mean is Gold (GLD) worth taking a look at?
     
  16. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    #1 is not a theory, it happens every year.

    #2 people are already desensitized to it. It may move a company he calls out, but that's not predictable. You need to wait and see what policy changes come about and base decisions on that.
     
  17. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Watching NVDA makes me upset. Every time I think it can't go any higher without a pull back...... it's like TSLA in 2012
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2016
  18. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Crappy AMD is up even more this year. I thought it was a dead dog around $2 and now it is around $12.
     
  19. brokencycle

    brokencycle Senior member

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    AMD will keep going up. They have basically switched from competing with Intel to Nvidia, and they have a much better play there. Plus graphics technology is getting more applications.
     
  20. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

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    Yeah I've been eyeing NVDA for weeks and it just keeps going!

    I'm holding HIMX and hoping they'll see some action.

    Sold my last TSLA stock today at 220. Started buying under 200 down to 180 and have trimmed at 190, 200, 210 ,and now sold the last bit at 220. I'm actually fairly sure it will keep going up but I'm ok to walk away with profit and wait. I have buy orders starting at 200-205 again if it happens.

    Waiting for AAPL to just get over that 120 mark to trim some..
    Waiting for SWHC to just fall below 21 and NKE to fall below 51 and GILD to fall below 72 to add more.
     

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