Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.
Let's talk about BABA (Alibaba) IPO. I am going to jump on it on the day it is open. Thoughts?
My thoughts are that you have roughly a 50% chance, give or take a couple points, that your position ends in the green by the end of the day.
I've done a lot of business in China.
I would never touch a chinese stock. The shady practices are astounding.
Well now they have to comply with shady practices of Wall Street, so it is completely safe to invest.
Ha ha, I know, can you believe it went up after the reverse split. I read some new scientist joined them. The price seems to have stabilized over 11 so I'm going to sit on it. I did briefly reach positive territory after it hit 12. No reason to sell for me yet, this was always an all or nothing trade.
I don't want to step over the incredible advice below, but I think this IPO has huge momentum. Traditionally with tech IPOs they pop above the pop, find a floor after a few weeks (usually below the pop), then march up until their first set of earnings.
MBLY and GPRO are 2 good recent examples.
That first report tends to dictate the next phase of the development but I don't put too much weight in it. Often times they prime their books so that the first earnings look better than they are.
All this said, I may take a poke at the open to make a quick buck. I wouldn't want to hold it overnight. I'll wait for the floor, then take a small stake. Per the comment about Chinese companies, I think they are very, very shady and wouldn't be a long term investor.
Wow. Such sage advice. It's 50/50 everyone. Place your bets.
Yay now I can buy 15 Apple Watches with my 94% realized gain
Idfnl, aren't you the guy who genuinely believes he can consistently beat the pros and market indices through individual stock picking?
You're also the guy who refuses to take a guaranteed (with your trading prowess, you'd be making MILLIONS in bonuses every year) massive income boost on Wall Street because you "don't want to trade with other peoples' money?"
Yeah... You're a joke.
Instead of buying BABA directly, wouldn't a better play be to buy into similar companies? One potential problem would be that BABA is in so many different categories it would be hard to choose just one and I don't see Amazon popping 5% on BABA news.
Yeah, too bad GF couldn't give us some hard, predictive data like "it's got momentum"!
No dumbass, I'm sure there was somebody here claiming that he consistently beats the pros thru individual stock picking but it wasn't me. Search the thread and find him.
I've beaten the DJIA regularly, this is true.
And no, I don't want to trade other people's money. I'm sure I'd be a successful broker. But I do quite well in my current career path, thanks for the advice though.
I never claimed to provide any hard predictive data, so that's a stupid statement. What I did mention were 2 cases that reflect what a large number of recent IPO's have done and what IPO tendencies are the first few months after initiating trading. All verifiable.
Quit being an ass by cherry-picking so you can troll.
Idfnl, you must have forgotten your reply to this question below:
Originally you had said that you could pick up on chart patterns and trade accordingly, just like the stooges in vinouspleasure's trading classes.
Then you ninja-edited it to say you didn't understand the question.
All I'm getting at is that you're giving your "trading skills" way too much credit when, really, luck is playing a much bigger factor than you're willing to admit.
I get it, though, you're not a very self-aware person and have rather low emotional intelligence. It's to be expected from you I guess.
If you were really skilled at trading, you wouldn't have any dog losses like PBPB or TWTR. I love when you lament your large losses on those plays with no reference to the fact that maybe you just got shit luck. Then, when you have a big pop on a stock you own, you parade about your "mad skillz baby!"
My point is: you're not as skilled a trader as you believe you are and I'm not saying that as a dig.
You're the one making claims that I "beat the pros". And the proof is someones comment and then a lie about some ninja edit. LOL. For posterity, notice there is no edit stamp on the post, so you're lying:
The fact that I post my losers, my mistakes, and gaps in the way I trade negates everything you say. You're trying to anchor the idea that I post winners and hide losers to make me look better than I really am, when in fact I have journaled here a pretty accurate representation of my moves.
Lastly, it's called trash talking or just general excitement about a move that favors me. You mistake someone enjoying the process of trading with arrogance, and therefore you look like the one that can't empathize because you don't grasp what joking around and having some fun with the process is... and you call others low EQ? Sure then, I believe luck never plays a part, please show us an example of where I say that. Let me guess, it was a ninja edit.
By the way, I misjudged GTAT on the heels of the AAPL presentation, down big on a small position. I'm sure that makes you feel better. You keep calling those 50-50 trades though, dude.
Let's talk sanctions against RU and war against ISIS and how all of this mess started by US is lifting the USD. Unwittingly Obama finally makes lemonade. Buy Euro on weakness?
Share good ideas: this is a huuuuge mess and there must be a Whale-size opportunity to make money, but where?
The only thing I'm going to comment on is that there is no edit stamp because you edited your post within the 10 minute timeframe that allows these ninja edits. It only says a post was edited if you edit it after 10 minutes of posting.
Also, I'll dig up a post you had several months back where you claimed all the glory of a stock pop through your "skills baby!"
Right dude. My answer to this:
was because "I beat the pros". Which I removed within this 10 minute window, but you saw it, and didn't call me out for "beating the pros" in the moment. You're a liar.
Please spend your time finding a "skills baby" post. Even though I explained it was some friendly trash talking. You already look stupid, compound it.
Separate names with a comma.