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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Senior member

    Messages:
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    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    too early to tell right now.... I've sold off a few and made money so most of what I'm holding currently is down about 3-5% overall since I buy as it goes down and some of these maybe haven't hit bottom yet or are stabilizing but haven't come back yet, so as of now what I'm holding is a bit down but I see 10-20% upside potential or more on some of these and I'll only know where I end up in a month or two. As of now I'm pretty much all in, feeling very nervous, and hanging on for dear life. I don't think I'm going to go down this path again (as far)

    2 weeks ago I was at 35-40% cash, now I've bought into another 5-7 stocks and rebought a few times and am all in. And since I don't buy and wait for a earnings pop, almost none of mine sold off.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2015
  2. MSchapiro

    MSchapiro Senior member

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    Sep 26, 2011
    I'm just at the end of that cycle, so it worked well for me. Now figuring out what to do with my cash.
     
  3. amerikajinda

    amerikajinda Senior member

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    Apr 18, 2006
    Location:
    Virginia, USA
    How's everybody doing on their 401k's ytd? I'm just over 5.5%.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. brokencycle

    brokencycle Senior member

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    The Old North State
    After fees I'm up 5.19%. I have my 401k split 80/20 between a large cap and mid/small cap index fund with Fidelity (most other funds had really high fees).
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Location:
    Princeton, NJ
    

    Agreed, the sooner they bite the bullet and start making an uptick the sooner it will give confidence as to how sustainable this RE market really is. I dont think it's a bubble yet, I havent seen too much insanity and the banks are still super strict.

    My wife and I both have 750 and 800 credit ratings and when refi-ing our current place to take advantage of the rates they still made us jump through a ton of hoops. We've owned the place for 5 years and did the refi with the same bank (WFC).
     
  6. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Nov 28, 2012
    My 401k is up 0.84%! All S&P 500 fund. Don't really know about the others. Guess I need to figure out our return quarter to date.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Aug 15, 2008
    mine says 3.2%. I'm going to assume that is after fees, but ML's website doesn't really make it clear.

    They are also the only ones who report it in any sort of legible manner (using the modified Dietz formula). Too lazy to do the math myself, but my IRA and taxable account insist on simply reporting gains vs cost basis for eternity which makes zero sense (if you sell something for a huge gain and buy something else, it says you've got zero return). I'm too lazy to find year-end statements and do the math myself.
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Just for fun, here is what TD Ameritrade reports for gain/loss % on every holding.

    [​IMG]


    2 of the negatives are a bit misleading since they have paid lots of dividends which should bring them back to approximately flat.

    A couple more have cost basis issues...the last negative should really be very positive...it was Vodaphone and they paid a dividend a while back in the form of Verizon stock...but that didn't change the cost basis so it looks like I lost money when they really spun off their ownership and payed out big.

    The -98% is a penny stock that did what penny stocks do...wasn't a large position to begin with and now it is literally not worth the trading fee to sell it. Company is technically still active so one day it might be worth something again.

    The +250% is a company I have owned for many years...but they really haven't done anything in the past year so if you looked at YTD returns it would be 0.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2015
    1 person likes this.
  9. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Location:
    Princeton, NJ
    I always wonder how accurate the Y-O-Y and YTD calculations are for accounts that are constantly accepting new contributions. I presume that this is done on a monthly basis, since that is when the reporting is done, but I bet that causes a pretty good error in the calculations.
     
  10. chrisjr

    chrisjr Senior member

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    Jan 31, 2009
    Location:
    Park Avenue
    No 401k, but general brokerage account is up 6.7% YTD. Most positions were opened throughout March.
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. otc

    otc Senior member

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    The modified Dietz is pretty reasonable (and easier to calculate than something like an true IRR where you would have to do a DCF).

    Basically Ending balance minus beginning balance, minus contributions divided by the average capital.

    You weight the contributions in the average capital by the number of days they were invested (so contributions on the last day barely count, contributions at the beginning count almost in full).

    If you don't do that, you get useless information, like how services such as Mint report investment performance (they base int on performance of the current portfolio, so if you sold a big winner or a big loser, that gain/loss would be wiped from your record).
     
    2 people like this.
  12. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    I used to calculate based on the IRR approach with dates of investments. Once you set it up it is easy to add to but I moved away from that approach a while ago. Had a spreadsheet setup for it and everything.
     
  13. Concordia

    Concordia Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    IRR can be interesting, but can also conceal a lot. Without time-weighted return of the whole portfolio, you have no meaningful measurement of the manager's usefulness.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Decided to refinance the house from a 30-year fixed to a 15-year fixed since we were paying more principle each month. Dropped our rate 1.125% so we are now at a sub-3.5% rate. At this point is it worth adding to the mortgage payments or investing?

    I assume there is some experience in this topic from the usual suspects.
     
  15. brokencycle

    brokencycle Senior member

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    I would invest. If you pay extra principal on the house, you get 3.25% guaranteed return (less the tax deduction). While the stock market isn't guaranteed, the historical returns indicate you will do better than 3.25%.
     
  16. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    Err, I have no quarrel with the basic advice, but I think the way you've stated your reasoning (which I know you were just short-handing) is a bit overly optimistic.

    Leaving aside the retrospective/prospective issue, historical returns would suggest that if his portfolio's diversification is sufficient to track the market generally and he has he has a sufficiently long horizon, his returns likely will exceed 3.25%. The time horizon thing is real wildcard, though. Those generally positive historical returns include some sharp spikes upward and downward. History was the luxury of relying on the historical average, while us poor schmoes are often stuck with with the point in time we're at.
     
  17. chogall

    chogall Senior member

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    There were periods where 10 year return of equity is close to nil. Just saying.

    Past performance does not necessarily predict future results.
     
  18. guyver00

    guyver00 Senior member

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    Nov 25, 2010
    Location:
    Socialist Republic of Canukstan
    

    I use XIRR function in my Excel to calculate my return, not sure if it conceals the same thing as what you mentioned. I usually just scan my portfolio in Morningstar to get an idea of my YTD return. I know I should know more about return calculations, but it seems like such a dry subject.
     
  19. brokencycle

    brokencycle Senior member

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    You're both right. However, if I was in the same situation (and I am) I would invest my money in the stock market over paying off my mortgage faster. I don't know his investment time horizon, but mine is 40+ years. If I'm at 3.5% interest, I can write that off on my taxes (which if you assume a 100k married household income would be 25% federal plus state). If my interest rate was 6%+ I would probably pay down the loan.

    So again, you're both right - it depends on if you want a guaranteed return of <3.5% or want to take your chance on the market.
     
  20. chogall

    chogall Senior member

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    It's highly debated as well, with some firms using some interesting formulas while some other follows a GIPS standard. And there are tons of different ways for counting the beans in different investment categories as well.

    Some PE firms were overstating values of their investment back in '09; luckily we didn't go down further.
     

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