Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[idfnl]



Yeah, I know. I was obviously pimping you a bit. But I do think that one of the insidious things about technical analysis and the like is they use fancy names like "technical analysis" and use lots of numbers and charts so people feel like they're being analytic, when if facts it's all (in my opinion) goofy-assed magical thinking BS.

But maybe that's because I could never tell a candle chart from a stalagmite chart from a rocket ship chart.

You can make a chart do circles by plugging in the convenient tool or looking at the right timeline, etc to make a story look compelling. Agree completely. But there are some pretty well established chart signals that a lot of traders and automated platforms move on such as the 200 day moving average.

You prly know what a candlestick chart does, but just in case, its useful because it tells you 4 things, the open, high, low and close of a price for any given duration. It's a good way to measure volatility and identify support or loss thereof. If a candlestick is uncolored, it means the close was higher than the open, and dark means the opposite. In conjunction with, for example, a bollinger band, it can tell you when the price is *looking* overbought or sold, and *might* be a good time to enter or exit.

Most recently, I took a small stake in UPS, and I opened the 2 minute chart to see what it looked like that day. It was in the middle of the band, on a series of dark candles, indicating that it had a bit more selling off to do before an uptick. So I set my price like $0.11 below the current and withing about 5 minutes I got it. I could have just bought and not cared about that tiny amount, but I get a kick out of it. Of course it went down further that day but I got a small discount in the time window I had available.

 

[concealed]

No idea why you're characterizing people as having an "edge". Nobody has an edge, just beliefs, trading ideas and life experience.

Day trading is fun. That's the main reason I do it, and I don't do it every day, just thru opportunism. I also disagree with sizable sums. I enjoy the $1/share gain on a 100 share trade. I'll take every singe one I can get. I've done plenty of 5 minute trades that yield me $20. I had a discussion with a family member the other day about selling covered calls, he laughed out loud when I told him I was getting $20 for each BAC contract I had, I'm glad he laughed, because I guess that's my "edge"... I am willing to go after that easy .5% because I know the cumulative power of doing it.

If you don't have an edge you aren't investing. Generally those types of strategies entail significant downside risk, but work well in periods of relative calm, there are literally thousands of people evaluating those same types of opportunities at hedge funds and other asset managers all day, if they didn't accept the risk, you probably shouldn't either.

 

[javyn]

Tomorrow morning ACTC will be $8 a share I guarantee it!

 

[UnFacconable]



The vast majority of funds underperform the major indexes. I'm sure they're all talented, but they don't seem to perform.

I think it's because funds collect fees regardless of how the fund performs. No incentive to perform.

Lastly, fund fees are a pretty big drain on your gains. Index funds are an exception, but in general, it's a significant headwind.
No idea why you're characterizing people as having an "edge". Nobody has an edge, just beliefs, trading ideas and life experience.

What you call index funds I referred to above as passively managed funds. Even some of those have fees that are higher than they need to be, but that isn't always the case. Vanguard Total Stock Market charges 5 bps. Vanguard has plenty of other funds with different strategies that are below 20 bps.

You enjoy day trading so the advice doesn't apply to you.

 

[idfnl]



If you don't have an edge you aren't investing.  Generally those types of strategies entail significant downside risk, but work well in periods of relative calm, there are literally thousands of people evaluating those same types of opportunities at hedge funds and other asset managers all day, if they didn't accept the risk, you probably shouldn't either.

"Edge" is an amorphous term. To one guy it means strategy, to another it's a backhanded way to describe a guy that thinks he knows more than he really does. I find the market teaches that that latter lesson very quickly. Or it's the guy at a trading desk burning both ends of the candle at night.

I personally like to talk about trading ideas, I guess I have some strategy somewhere out there, but I find too much strategy makes you robotic and unresponsive to signals and changes.

I guess in response, I would say that if you don't have ideas you shouldn't be investing.

 

[idfnl]



What you call index funds I referred to above as passively managed funds. Even some of those have fees that are higher than they need to be, but that isn't always the case. Vanguard Total Stock Market charges 5 bps. Vanguard has plenty of other funds with different strategies that are below 20 bps.

You enjoy day trading so the advice doesn't apply to you.

Vanguard funds are probably the only ones I'd buy. Lowest fees out there.

 

[otc]



Tomorrow morning ACTC will be $8 a share I guarantee it!

 

[otc]

Although that kind of worries me.

I don't want to confuse djblisk, but price can matter when it comes to penny stocks.

It could be a sign that they are legitimizing themselves and lowering the ridiculous quantity of shares outstanding. But it also gives the stock a lot more room to fall. Granted, things can trade on fractions of a cent these days, but with normal money, an $8 stock has a lot more room to fall than an $0.08 stock.

Also, from a purely irrational perspective, it just feels more likely for an 8 cent stock to pop and double or triple or go all of the way up to a buck. The fundamentals of the company aren't any different (except that they might look more respectable to institutional buyers that won't buy below a certain price or NASDAQ which won't list you), but penny stocks do crazy irrational things all of the time.

The last time I owned a penny stock that did a reverse split (wasn't 1:100 even), it really did just give them room to fall more. The split brought them up to $4 from something like 10-20 cents a share...now they are back down to 15 cents which would be bordering on make-believe money without the split.

 

[lawyerdad]



"Edge" is an amorphous term.

AKA "rimming", no?

 

[idfnl]



AKA "rimming", no?

Some traders do, I'm sure.

 

[stevent]



Tomorrow morning ACTC will be $8 a share I guarantee it!

Perfect, just picked up a million shares on margin!!!

 

[idfnl]



Perfect, just picked up a million shares on margin!!!

PM GreenFrog.

 

[GreenFrog]

@lawyerdad

Excuse me dear sir, why did you like the above poast?

 

[lawyerdad]



@lawyerdad

Excuse me dear sir, why did you like the above poast?

Because as these discussions go you've become the poster boy for margin use. (Well, except when I'm the one defending informed use of margin.) Unfairly, probably, but what fun would it be if everything had to be accurate and fair?

At least idfnl didn't reply "PM GreenFrog" when I made the rimming joak . . .

 

[GreenFrog]



Because as these discussions go you've become the poster boy for margin use. (Well, except when I'm the one defending informed use of margin.) Unfairly, probably, but what fun would it be if everything had to be accurate and fair?

At least idfnl didn't reply "PM GreenFrog" when I made the rimming joak . . .

It's been awhile since I traded on margin and it was very risky and 100% gambling. I knew it at the time, though and never held a position for more than 15 minutes. I made some decent coin.

Would do it again if I had the day off from work to focus on the markets.