Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.
Getting your FDA decision date kicked can do that to you . . . sorry you got bitten.
thanks, dude... I'm holding on to it until I see a nice profit (knock on wood!) and it is back up 2.31% today so I'm only down 4.35% overall... just gotta see it back into the black! Damn volatile stocks make my stomach in knots.
I'm just some random dude on the internet, but given the volatility of development-stage drug companies and the fact that there are apparently some hiccups or issues with their application, it seems like you're exposing yourself to a disproportionate amount of downside risk in an effort to eke out another 4 -5% (if you plan to sell once you get back in the black).
The goal is (or should be) to get the best performance out of your overall portfolio. Worrying too much about whether you're "winning" or "losing" on individual positions is counterproductive, as that only matters for internet bragging rights ( I admit there's a natural emotional component to it as well). The 4.35% you're down on this position is money that has been burned in the fires of the past. As for the current value of your $OREX position, the only relevant question is whether your overall portfolio strategy is better served by keeping that money in $OREX (based on its valuation and prospects today) or in another security. Every day you leave it in $OREX you're effectively making the decision (or at least acting as though you've made the decision) that $OREX is a better investment than everything else you could be doing with that money.
Sorry to use your post to beat a dead horse, but one of my pet peeves is the way internet discussions -- while a valuable source of ideas and feedback -- tend to distort the way people think about their investments.
Anybody like Netflix?
No that's a very good point - and I agree with you. I do want to give my $OREX position some time as it's barely a month old. I did want to post that I'm currently down in the interest of fairness. Seems as though many people (myself included) only post their winners, but it doesn't paint an honest picture if we distort our stock-picking abilities by only posting winners.
Personally for me, $OREX is a good position for my portfolio. It's one of a handful of biotechs I have (along with Cognizant, Macrogenics, and Orexigen), and I have exposure to all major sectors (other current individual stock holdings are Amazon, Arcelormittal, Automation, Capital One, Citigroup, Disney, Eaton, Fith Third Bank, General Motors, General Dynamics, Hess, Intercontinental Exchange, Noble Energy, O'Reilly Automotive, and Wells Fargo). So I feel I'm nicely diversified and can hold onto $OREX until it shows at least a 5% gain. Also sitting on cash so I can grab some bargains when the inevitable correction hits. And I'm holding some CSJ (iShares 1-3 year credit bond ETF, some SJNK (SPDR Barclays short-term high-yield bond), and some BSV (Vanguard short-term bond) in addition to larger holdings in my three mutual funds - MALOX, SGIIX, and IVAEX). And this is my play account (not retirement) so I can afford to sit on $OREX until it's at least 5% higher than what I paid. But you're right that you have to constantly monitor and assess the fundamentals and relevancy of your holdings.
Hopefully $OREX (currently trading at $6.20/share) will hit its price target of $10.80 and I can come back on here and post a nice little realized gain. But if not, tax harvesting ftw.
I did. In 1999. Yeah, it's been fun.
I generally avoid stuff like that because of the extreme volatility, however, in a not-so-volatile case I have held a couple oil stocks for years and they have only recently popped.
In one portfolio I bought Xom and Cvx at $56 and $75 respectively, right after the BP oil mess because it killed most of the oil stocks prices. Sold out of CVX 6 months later and chopped XOM in half at about $80 and $100 approx. Six more months later I bought them again in another portfolio for $80 and $95~ and still hold them. Cvx went over a $100 quickly but both lagged many other stock picks until recently. Over the same time period I owned RDS.a which also basically sucked until recently.
So, often times I'd rather hold laggards than cut them loose over a long horizon, because I do not know what the future holds. Oil took off starting in January, but if I had sold off all of my oil stocks because they sucked by comparison to the market I would have missed out on the recent pop.
So it's easy to armchair quarterback and say that you need to cut it loose, but that may not be the case.
Sold RYN after their spinoff. Made 17%.
Bought RH and ZTS this morning.
I'm still holding that dog.
I'm up 24% since I bought it.
Wouldn't dream of it at these levels. I got scared and sold around 335.
I think everyone should keep 10-15% of their portfolio for speculation. I stay in that range. I've done really well in general with these plays, although I've lost touch with the FDA approvals calendar lately.
Where I can't correct my trading behavior is sitting on a position that's negative until the end of days. I sat on MSFT for 4 years. C for 4 also, many others. Right now I'm sitting on PAY (2 years), PB (shit IPO), and NUAN (3 years) among a few other smaller positions, I just can't sell them. I can't explain why I'm so resistant to cutting losses and transitioning the $ to better positions. I mean, I know they're there... I could sell PAY right now and buy 10 stocks I have my eye on.
It's call loss aversion, you can look it up on any behavioral finance books. I used to hate selling losers, hoping that they would get back to even, but after reading up on why we all do dumb things with money and stocks, I'm much less conflicted when selling my losers, especially when my outlook has changed.
It also helps that 95% of my portfolio is passive, only 5% is my fun money.
I don't have much interest in pure speculation stocks anymore. Some of my first purchases were in mortgage insurers, I looked at which ones had the most conservative risk profiles and bought them for $1-2/ share in the summer of 2008, sold them for 3x in January 2009 and never looked back. One ended up going under and the other 2 are many multiples of what I initially paid.
But staking 10% of my portfolio in a similar bit of risk currently is well outside of my comfort zone.
Yes! Loss aversion... and the endowment effect. I used to hate selling losers too, but psychologically I try to sell myself on "tax harvesting" to rationalize realizing losses because it is hard to be impartial. With stocks (unlike gambling in Vegas where the money is just gone), there's (usually) always a chance that your money will come back (like SkinnyGoomba's oil stocks) unless of course you buy a company like WorldCom like I did back in the day.
Dow up over 17,000 for the first time ever!
I find speculation keeps you sharp. If I had a bunch of fuddy duddy positions, I may check my account once a week. If I'm speculating, I'm watching much more closely and with that comes unexpected opportunities.
Plenty of opportunities in mid-large cap, but maybe not as exciting. There was so much M&A this year that there was plenty of excitment in big cap so far.
In general, yes. Last year was fantastic, this year has been good. On average all my funds have been up about 6-9% across the board. There have been some spinoffs, and movement in large cap. Really, 10-15% of your portfolio is not a lot to speculate on.
I've been reviewing ETFs lately, you are into dividends, what do you think of this one?
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Dow Jones Select
Looks like it has about a 6% yield and pays monthly
A couple of others I'm reviewing:
iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund
ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF
This one is interesting, it leverages the dogs of the dow theory
YYY also looks interesting
Pref stock one is likely to get hammered when the rates start to rise next year, so I would avoid that. Other than that I have little interest in leveraged dividend ETF's, as I have no idea how much the average dividend stocks are going to be effected by a change in interest rates, so I would not want to multiply that by anything.
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