Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Im nervous as fuck brahs.. AAPL and FB today at the same time.

    Prepared to lube my anus for dat DP action.
     
  2. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    PE is 94, hard to call it cheap with any comparison. Tech majors with consistent earrings begin to trade like normal stocks on a basis of PE once the hype deflates. IMO. Their earnings are 1/2 or 1/3 of what they should be for a company of their market cap.
     
  3. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Right. Not saying it's cheap, but that it's relatively cheap compared to other social media stocks:

    LNKD -- 927
    YELP -- N/A; no earnings
    TWTR -- N/A; no earnings

    Not a dig at you, SG, because I've used that same argument over and over for other companies, but simply stating a company's P/E as the only reason not to invest in it just doesn't seem to work today anymore.
     
  4. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Alright, but then what else are you buying, if not an earnings stream? If your speculating on the price, then what do you expect it to be priced at in the future? Doubling your money requires this company to be one of the most valuable companies in the world, I don't see that for a platform that I can upload pictures of myself and post daily musings.

    Just conversation, IMO. Not taking the topic personally or making personal jabs.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2014
  5. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    When it comes to FB, I care about rapidly increasing earnings growth through additional monetization of their expanding platforms. My current timeline for holding stocks right now is 1-2 years. I don't look past that.

    I understand the argument you're trying to make, but applying such a rigid POV to equity investing would preclude you from investing in some great growth stocks, like AMZN, that defy all rational logic and valuation metrics.

    It's just a different philosophy in investing and IIRC, you tend to invest in more of the stable, larger corporations that have been around for a while. You don't carry the likes of TSLA, AMZN, or FB, for that matter, nor would you ever.

    You also take a longer-term approach to investing, right? We just have different investing styles.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2014
  6. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    Sounds like a pretty biased measuring stick.
     
  7. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I'm not discounting their ability to grow, but at a PE of 94 I think they have sizeable growth expectations built in. My basis is and always has been 'where from here?'. I see eventual rationalisation over continued outsized expectations.

    I'm here to make money, so I don't want to be on the wrong end of hype.
     
  8. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Well, yeah. Since when was it ever not "biased" to compare a company's financials against its peers in the same industry?
     
  9. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    Also David Einhorn's latest letter to investors. A selected highlight that some might find to be food for thought:

    We have repeatedly noted that it is dangerous to short stocks that have disconnected from traditional valuation methods. After all, twice a silly price is not twice as silly; it’s still just silly. This understanding limited our enthusiasm for shorting the handful of momentum stocks that dominated the headlines last year. Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years. What is uncertain is how much further the bubble can expand, and what might pop it.

    In our view the current bubble is an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm. Some indications that we are pretty far along include:
    •  The rejection of conventional valuation methods;
    •  Short-sellers forced to cover due to intolerable mark-to-market losses; and
    •  Huge first day IPO pops for companies that have done little more than use the right
      buzzwords and attract the right venture capital.

    And once again, certain “cool kid” companies and the cheerleading analysts are pretending that compensation paid in equity isn’t an expense because it is “non-cash.” Would these companies be able to retain their highly talented workforces if they stopped doling out large amounts of equity? If you are trying to determine the creditworthiness of these ventures, it might make sense to back out non-cash expenses. But if you are an equity holder trying to value the businesses as a multiple of profits, how can you ignore the real cost of future dilution that comes from paying the employees in stock?
     
  10. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    This mentality can lead to buying the best house in a terrible neighborhood.
     
  11. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Oh?
     
  12. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Solid earnings form FB :slayer:
     
  13. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    And very solid AAPL #s!!

    WOW 7 FOR 1 STOCK SPLIT! and increased buy-backs!

    I likey, though disappointing ipad sales.

    edit: up 7-8%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    :slayer:
    :slayer:
    :slayer:
    :slayer:
    :slayer:
    v
    :slayer:
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2014
  14. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

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    Stock was halted cuz of demand, their dividend plus the split will be solid profits imo
     
  15. sonick

    sonick Senior member

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    Wow AAPL.
     

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