Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[seeldoger47]

My point is that the Fed can and, in fact does, control narrow money supply.

I thought base money is considered the broadest form of money.

 

[Cantabrigian]

Unless I've been using it wrong for years (which isn't out of the question) base money = M1 = dollar bills and electronic money in an account at the Fed.

I've always heard 'broad money' to describe the broader M-s

 

[landshark]

Time to buy TTWO. The GTA 5 online multiplayer video will be released today and should give it a nice boost, hopefully over $20.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

The stock market is making an attempt at bullying the fed today, it would seem.

 

[otc]



Time to buy TTWO. The GTA 5 online multiplayer video will be released today and should give it a nice boost, hopefully over $20.

It's already at a 5-year high...maybe that anticipation is already priced in a bit?

 

[seeldoger47]

Unless I've been using it wrong for years (which isn't out of the question) base money = M1 = dollar bills and electronic money in an account at the Fed.

I've always heard 'broad money' to describe the broader M-s

I don't believe that description is entirely correct; base money ≠ M1.

Via Wikipedia:
Base money = Physical Cash + Federal Reserve Deposits*
M0 = total of all physical currency including coinage
M1 = M0 + outside of the private banking system plus the amount of demand deposits, travelers checks and other checkable deposits
M2 = M1 + savings accounts, money market accounts, retail money market mutual funds, and small denomination time deposits

*special deposits that only banks can have at the Fed

The change in Base money, M1, and M2 since 2000:



So I guess the answer to my question is however you define broad and narrow.

 

[landshark]



It's already at a 5-year high...maybe that anticipation is already priced in a bit?

Besides a lot of low price targets of $22 & $23, I have been seeing $25-$27+ lately. Maybe long term it will be lower, but upon release I feel like the hype will pump up the stock enough to take a tidy profit, even at ~$18.

 

[lawyerdad]



Besides a lot of low price targets of $22 & $23, I have been seeing $25-$27+ lately. Maybe long term it will be lower, but upon release I feel like the hype will pump up the stock enough to take a tidy profit, even at ~$18.

I think you may have missed OTC's point. The release date has been known for some time, so any "pop" would almost certainly be priced in already - unless sales out of the box far exceed expectations.

Anyway, it's down a touch today -- perhaps due in part to the broader decline. But it's certainly not showing signs of a pop. And now that the game has been released, I would expect near-term price performance to be driven much more by actual vs. expected sales figures than by "hype".

 

[otc]

I've noticed that the things that gamers (or users in a non-game software company) get excited about are rarely the same things that investors are excited about.

Probably because things like...ongoing updates and additional content are not short term revenue generators. Sure, they earn goodwill and keep a loyal fanbase around for your next game/expansion/update...but to a lot of shareholders, it is money going out the door now without hard cash coming in.

 

[landshark]



I think you may have missed OTC's point. The release date has been known for some time, so any "pop" would almost certainly be priced in already - unless sales out of the box far exceed expectations.

Anyway, it's down a touch today -- perhaps due in part to the broader decline. But it's certainly not showing signs of a pop. And now that the game has been released, I would expect near-term price performance to be driven much more by actual vs. expected sales figures than by "hype".

For perspective, from Grand Theft Auto 4:

"Grand Theft Auto IV's sales surpassed those of last year's best-selling title from Microsoft, Halo 3. That title (Halo 3) established a new, single-day sales record of $180 million dollars.

Take-Two estimates that on its first day, GTA IV sold 3.6 million copies and generated $310 million in sales, far surpassing Halo 3's performance."


GTA 4 beat the single day sales record by almost double (against another popular franchise).

From what has been shown so far, this game will certainly exceed the scale and quality of its predecessor.

As for the performance today, there was some "bad" unexpected news: That multiplayer wont be available until October 1, 2 weeks after release.

I've noticed that the things that gamers (or users in a non-game software company) get excited about are rarely the same things that investors are excited about.

Probably because things like...ongoing updates and additional content are not short term revenue generators. Sure, they earn goodwill and keep a loyal fanbase around for your next game/expansion/update...but to a lot of shareholders, it is money going out the door now without hard cash coming in.

You know, I can appreciate that. However, the coverage that every single detail gets when its released is just one example of the community interest. This game would be the most advanced, detailed, and desirable gaming wise & has the potential for record breaking sales, just like its predecessor.

On every single but every release in the past there has been a spike on or around the release date. Throw in a little hype and this will definitely go up. Maybe not long term (even 1-2 months after I could see a drop) but still, long enough to take a profit if you bought at the right price.

 

[stevent]

Yeah 6-7 years ago I wanted to get take two since the only video game I ever played was GTA. Happy I didn't as it never really would have made any money. Game sales don't directly transfer to stock price increases and pretty sure any pop was pretty minor if at all. My dad used to do it with marvel stock and that worked as I think the first few movies did way better than expected. If GTA doesn't blow out estimates then stock price stays the same or goes lower

 

[lawyerdad]



For perspective, from Grand Theft Auto 4:

"Grand Theft Auto IV's sales surpassed those of last year's best-selling title from Microsoft, Halo 3. That title (Halo 3) established a new, single-day sales record of $180 million dollars.

Take-Two estimates that on its first day, GTA IV sold 3.6 million copies and generated $310 million in sales, far surpassing Halo 3's performance."


GTA 4 beat the single day sales record by almost double (against another popular franchise).

From what has been shown so far, this game will certainly exceed the scale and quality of its predecessor.

As for the performance today, there was some "bad" unexpected news: That multiplayer wont be available until October 1, 2 weeks after release.
You know, I can appreciate that. However, the coverage that every single detail gets when its released is just one example of the community interest. This game would be the most advanced, detailed, and desirable gaming wise & has the potential for record breaking sales, just like its predecessor.

On every single but every release in the past there has been a spike on or around the release date. Throw in a little hype and this will definitely go up. Maybe not long term (even 1-2 months after I could see a drop) but still, long enough to take a profit if you bought at the right price.

Apples and oranges. What's relevant is not sales compared to what other games have sold in the past. It's sales compared to expected sales for this game. If it triples the previous sales record but people were expecting it to quadruple the previous record, that's not good news for investors.

I also don't understand why you're touting a history of the price spiking on past release dates, when the game has now been out for a couple of days and the stock is flat-to-down.

Hope it works out for you, though.

 

[jbarwick]

Did anyone take a gamble with JWN? Hasn't been looking good since earnings.

 

[landshark]



Apples and oranges. What's relevant is not sales compared to what other games have sold in the past. It's sales compared to expected sales for this game. If it triples the previous sales record but people were expecting it to quadruple the previous record, that's not good news for investors.

I also don't understand why you're touting a history of the price spiking on past release dates, when the game has now been out for a couple of days and the stock is flat-to-down.

Hope it works out for you, though.

The game hasn't even been released.

Quadrupling a record $310 million in single day sales may or may not be expected, but regardless, even tripling that would mean sales of almost 1 billion dollars, in a single day. I don't see how that would be bad news for anybody.

And it IS relevant how much the previous GTA sold. It is reasonable to believe that if this game is better in all ways than its predecessor GTA IV, as it seems to be, then it will probably sell more in a single day and over its lifetime. More Sales = More $, no matter how you look at it.

 

[lawyerdad]



The game hasn't even been released.

Quadrupling a record $310 million in single day sales may or may not be expected, but regardless, even tripling that would mean sales of almost 1 billion dollars, in a single day. I don't see how that would be bad news for anybody.

And it IS relevant how much the previous GTA sold. It is reasonable to believe that if this game is better in all ways than its predecessor GTA IV, as it seems to be, then it will probably sell more in a single day and over its lifetime. More Sales = More $, no matter how you look at it.

My bad on the release date point - I misread your first post when you referred to the multiplayer video, as opposed to the game release. That's a big part of why your post didn't really make sense to me.

But I still think your analysis is overlooking a critical point -- that saying there will be a lot of sales is a non sequitur unless you consider whether those sales will exceed or fall short of the sales expectations that are already priced in.

As to the quadrupling vs. tripling, it has to do with how stocks are valued. $1.2 billion in sales is a lot of sales, and sounds great. But if the market was expecting $3.9 billion, $1.2 billion is a catastrophe. Companies like Walmart, Intel, and Electronic Arts have all taken big stock hits after announcing that they brought in enormous amounts of money - just not as enormous as the markets were expecting.

So yes, more sales and more revenue are always better news than less sales and less revenue. But that's not the point.