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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    I'm off to a really bad start this year.

    BAC down 5%, IAI down 4.5%, 401k down 3.5%.

    And to top it off, fucking AAPL tomorrow is going to rape my net worth figure.
     
  2. guyver00

    guyver00 Senior member

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    Socialist Republic of Canukstan
    Should have sold my SWHC when it was above $15.
     
  3. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Going 100% equities is the risk. My bonds are up 1% this year so far which is currently sitting at roughly 17% of my portfolio. Interesting is the Roth account that houses extended market and REITs. It is actually break even so far which I thought was slightly odd but I haven't dug too deep into the holdings of each fund.

    I remember following a guy on Twitter that would just play options on AAPL and post his positions. Dude was raking it in in 2012. Don't follow as closely now but he seems to still do pretty good when I see his transactions. He never holds into earnings though.
     
  4. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    For sure. I have a big risk appetite. No bonds whatsoever for me.
     
  5. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Princeton, NJ
    

    Bonds carry plenty of risk. From a practical standpoint I truly dislike bonds, especially when purchased at a historically low interest rate. I will oversimplify for comparison sake; I bought both corp long term bonds and Altria (among many other investments) in 2011. The bonds paid out 5% and so did Altria. I paid $26/Sh for Altria, which has raised it's dividend twice or three times since then, it now pays 7% on the principle investment without considering shares reinvested, the bond fund reduced it's payout to 4.25% and I sold it in early 2013 for a modest profit,

    My brother bought Altria in 2007, it spun off Philip Morris int. and Kraft which then spun off Mondelez int. The total payments he receives equate to a 9% payout on his principle.
     
  6. amerikajinda

    amerikajinda Senior member

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    I'm off to a bad start this year too...

    DLTR down 12.22%, CTL down 10.33%, C (Citigroup) down 9.57%, AN down 4.54%, CELG down 4.48%, AMZN down 1.16%, SJNK down, CJS down, etc. etc.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2014
  7. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    It's still January, 11 months to go.
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. amerikajinda

    amerikajinda Senior member

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    He just grabbed some more this morning! Owns about $4 billion worth of $AAPL now... dang!

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2014
  9. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    I wonder how one goes about putting in a $500M order for shares that does not set off buzzers? "Do you see that guy with a 1M share order for AAPL?" "Must be Carl again!"
     
  10. Infrasonic

    Infrasonic Senior member

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    Manchester, UK.
    

    Buffett has a delayed reporting deal with the SEC...
     
  11. Concordia

    Concordia Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    e-Trade.
     
  12. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    I sold at 534 and was pissed when it was in the 550's... do I feel good about that now.
     
  13. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    That's great.
     
  14. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Are there any ETF's out there that specialize in FDA drug approval candidates?
     
  15. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    I doubt it, as that would probably be the most risky, volatile ETF out there.
     
  16. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Exactly.
     
  17. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    I'm not particularly knowledgeable about constructing and managing ETF's, so somebody more educated can certainly correct me here. But it seems like, volatility aside, it would be tricky because of the sheer number of (often small, not always public) companies, and the fact that the pool of relevant companies is fluid and high-turnover by definition. I would think (again, speaking as somebody who knows very little about the actual mechanics) that it it were even doable, it would be human-resource intense and would probably have a seriously high expense ratio.

    You'd also need somebody a lot smarter to me to come up with a definition of "drug approval candidates" that would achieve the goal I gather you presumably would be hoping to achieve. Read broadly, your definition would include companies like GILD, AMGN, GENE, Pfizer, J&J, etc., which are always going to have multiple drugs in the pipeline. I assume, though, you're envisioning something more aligned with the aggregate fortunes of developing companies whose fortunes are closely tied to the prospects of one drug or a few drugs, and thus are likely to spike or crash based on the outcome of the FDA approval process?

    Interesting concept, I just have no idea how one would do it.
     
  18. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Why would you want to do it as an ETF?

    the traditional fund structure makes much more sense. There just aren't that many FDA approvals going on at any one time, I can't see why it would benefit from being able to be actively traded more than once a day.

    This is kind of what the FDA's calendar looked like in 2013:
    http://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-news/11817243/fda-calendar-2013.html
     
  19. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Per OTC's post below, the FDA has a calendar which I have used from time to time to mine for speculation.

    http://www.rttnews.com/corpinfo/fdacalendar.aspx

    It would be nice, like you mention, to shift the labor intensiveness of it onto someone else and still get he benefit. I would imagine the people running the ETF would be moving in and out of positions (big and small cap) as the FDA calendar was worked thru. Days with approvals would see the ETF jump, being the net result.



    You might be right, a fund might make more sense, even if there was more load. I just notice how much volatility happens around stocks on that calendar and think there has got to be a better way to trade it.

    I guess the answer is no, nothing exists.
     
  20. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Red red red red red red
     

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