1. And... we're back. You'll notice that all of your images are back as well, as are our beloved emoticons, including the infamous :foo: We have also worked with our server folks and developers to fix the issues that were slowing down the site.

    There is still work to be done - the images in existing sigs are not yet linked, for example, and we are working on a way to get the images to load faster - which will improve the performance of the site, especially on the pages with a ton of images, and we will continue to work diligently on that and keep you updated.

    Cheers,

    Fok on behalf of the entire Styleforum team
    Dismiss Notice

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    My thesis, albeit simple for now, is that TWTR's advertising platform is quite compelling and much better than face book's, or any of the other social media companies', for that matter. It's ultra-targeted because people do go on TWTR to explicitly talk about brands, products, and services. Hashtags and @s to call out people / companies? That's like the sweet spot of targeted advertising and it feels less intrusive.

    The problem is I don't know how to properly value the company.

    jbarwick, you're right. We need to see a quarter of earnings results to gauge their financials. But for now, it's only speculation and momentum that's driving TWTR's price movement.. so it's risky to just pile in right now. The only reason why I'd jump in now is if I believe TWTR will shoot up significantly higher after a couple quarters of earnings. Otherwise, it's all downside risk.

    I think TWTR has potential to be in the triple digits by end of 2014, so I'm interested in getting in now, but, again, this is all speculation.

    I'm going to open a position if it falls below $60 and stays there throughout the week.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2013
  2. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Seems like a lot of contradictory reasoning here. If you can't value the company, why are you setting an entry point?
     
  3. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    My XLNX position is doing really well, I'm up 4% in less than a week. You guys should check it out, its an interesting company. They make programmable chips.
     
  4. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    

    The exact same reason why you initiated a position at whatever price you did -- because you arbitrarily interpreted the price compelling at that level.

    Unless you actually ran some numbers to value TWTR -- tell me, why did you buy TWTR at whatever price you did?
     
  5. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Because I'm trading the momentum, not the valuation. I saw a percentage correction as an entry point backed up by a look at some charts, not a particular price.
     
  6. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

    Messages:
    4,741
    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2006
    Location:
    London
    
    Sure - but the more relevant part of that is this quote
    The point is what happens in teh real economy as those reserves move from excess to required. There is reason to expect interest rates to remain fairly well contained. Especially as those reserves flow from cash rich semi-zombies (the GSEs / FHLBs) to banks that would be more likely to lend them to people who would do things with them. Which - yes- eventually results in another deposit somewhere else.
     
  7. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    Interesting TWTR reversal right now. Might be a sign that the price will stabilize at this price range.
     
  8. Thearkly

    Thearkly Senior member

    Messages:
    166
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Location:
    Baja
    So anyone trading Exelis? XLS? What do you think about the division next summer. I see great opportunity ahead.
     
  9. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

    Messages:
    432
    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2012
    From a double book keeping point of view, commercial banks (I don't know as much as I should about GSEs and FHLBs to describe them in any enlightening manner) can't lend reserves. Assets = Liabilities + Equity. If a bank loans $100 in reserves to a borrower there would be no change in assets (-100 reserve +100 loan) and an increase in liabilities (+100 deposit) - that can't happen in the accounting world as Assets < Liabilities + Equity. What the accounting actually looks like is: increase in assets (+100 loan) = increase in liabilities (+100). And thanks to the Fed, we also know that banks lend when there is demand from credit worthy borrowers and large reserve balances does not effect how much banks decide to lend. Thus we can reasonably conclude reserves exist for banks to settle accounts amongst themselves and for the Fed to interfere in the private banking sector. Commercial banks can swap reserves for other assets, but they cannot lend directly from them. Sorry for being such a stickler, for we come to very similar conclusions, but I think this, endogenous money, is the most important concept to understand when constructing a macro portfolio/macro speculating.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2013
  10. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
  11. Thearkly

    Thearkly Senior member

    Messages:
    166
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Location:
    Baja
    Delete
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2014
  12. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    As I think about moving on to a different position and firm, I'm kinda bummed that I'm going to lose 60% of my 401(k)'s company match.. I hate vesting :brick:.
     
  13. ter1413

    ter1413 Senior member

    Messages:
    18,042
    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Location:
    Central Booking
    


    Why would that happen if you are at the same firm?
     
  14. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    


     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2014
  15. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    TWTR up again, 4% so far today. The 2 stakes I bought are tuning into a nice small profit.

    Opened a position in MA pre-market. 10 for 1 split coming as well as an approaching ex dividend date. I think the stock should respond well to both.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2014
  16. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

    Messages:
    2,972
    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Didn't know a share of MA was in the 800s!
     
  17. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Yup. I looked at it like 2 years ago in the 400s and thought it was expensive. Its done nothing but go up.
     
  18. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    Goddamn I have a huge crush on Seema Mody :inlove: :inlove:
     
  19. Thearkly

    Thearkly Senior member

    Messages:
    166
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Location:
    Baja
    Anyone know a good place to build a mock portfolio?
     
  20. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Why not google finance?
     

Share This Page

Styleforum is proudly sponsored by