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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    I think the only thing we can safely say about interest rates is that they will still be zero when we enter the next recession.
     
  2. Texasmade

    Texasmade Senior member

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    Houston, TX
    

    What kind of QE will we get then? $100B in bond buying a month? $1.5T stimulus package? It boggles the mind.
     
  3. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    I dreamt last night that AAPL was trading at $760.

    ... and then I woke up.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2013
  4. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Also, LOL @ BBRY Turnaround 2.0
     
  5. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    Do you reckon GDP will contract before 2015 or that the Fed will take longer to hike?
     
  6. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    Definitely the latter but potentially the former.

    Bernanke won't raise interest rates because he believes the great depression was caused by tightening monetary policy too early. Yellen is even more dovish than Big Ben, making it unlikely she will hike rates either given the tenuous economic recovery.

    We could enter a recession by 2015, but I'd say its unlikely at this point. Since 1945, the average economic expansion lasted 56 months, this number becomes 93 months if we narrow our time span to the past 3 growth periods, and we are already 51 months into this recovery. The picture become muddled once you factor the past recession was precipitated by a financial crisis, prompting a nation wide deleveraging, something America has not seen since the 1930s. And muddled even more when you realize the balance sheet recession is over and that consumers are starting to releverage in the aggregate. Also we haven't seen the type of credit creation that is needed to induce a recession.

    I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter.
     
  7. tropics

    tropics Senior member

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    i had a dream that i didn't sell a bunch of them at 450

    *angry face*
     
  8. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I feel similarly, if you remember the general attitude in '06 and '07 it was one of proceeding at any amount of risk. I don't feel that sentiment currently, people seem to practicing more modest approaches to their finances.

    One is not likely to get back into debt if they have recently been damaged by it.

    Also, I think the Fed is attempting to moderate the stock market by suggesting the rate will rise sooner rather than later.
     
  9. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

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    How do you guys feel about BOA for a long term investment? Dividends suck but it seems like they are undervalued and getting passed all their old mortgage bs.
     
  10. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I own it and will continue to for the foreseeable future. I hope they finally raise the dividend and buy backs this year.
     
  11. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

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    Yea i picked it up because its one of the last big banks (chase, citi, wells, etc) that has not had its recovery.

    Any other factors that made you buy it?

    Also if you don't mind me asking, any other stocks catch your eye? (i normally follow tech)
     
  12. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I've had it for a while, bought it mostly because I felt it was undervalued and that it would gain share value along with improvement which I expected would take a while.

    I buy mostly dividend/growth so currently xom, mdlz, ge, cvx, vz, pm, wfc, rds.a, mo, pfe, bac, ko, chd, deo, krft, cop, t, cb, rai, lo, bp, pg and awk.

    My tobacco stocks have mostly been non-performers this year, but pretty much everything else has been great.

    Some are pricey now, but I've owned them for a while so I keep them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2013
  13. stevent

    stevent Senior member

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    Most bank stocks are still pretty cheap though really wish interest rates went up. Bac is still solid number wise and I still have a ton as well. Been trimming a few shares every now and then. Really hoping spanish banks turn around, only bank stocks I'm not up much compared others at 100%+

    Thinking upping Greek banks soon as well, down about 40% on them
     
  14. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    VA
    




    I bought BAC at 5, I have considered selling a few times but I'm sitting on it. It has some room to run. I think its going to be a while before anything like a nice dividend appears.
     
  15. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    At least two more quarters.
     
  16. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Bank stocks should do well in 2014

    Tons of IPOs in the pipeline, lot's of activity.
     
  17. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Discussed bonds, interest rates, and mortgage reits with my friend's brother who's a bond trader at a major hedge fund.

    He thinks mreits are a good play for 2014 and said he was actually interested in them too. Asked me to forward him the REIT I'm looking at.

    Sure enough, arr is up 4-5% today.. I knew I should have bought last week! :fu:
     
  18. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    I agree. My Canadian banks are doing well so far. I also have stakes in BAC, C, UBS, CS, JPM, FHN, KRE, MS, AXP, V. I plan to sit on all of these.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2013
  19. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    I was in high school in 06/07 so its safe to say I don't recall the investing climate.

    According to an employee at the NY Fed, any talk of tapering/tightening is intended to reduce risk taking in the credit markets; equity markets are not a concern yet.
     
  20. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Affecting one will always have effect in the others.
     

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