Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[double00]

lately i've been selling equities and look to continue through the fall . but that's more to do with goals achieved than a perception of the wider markets .

personally i don't subscribe to passive investing . and then if I am going to be actively involved i'm looking for things that are worth my time / effort . horses for courses ymmv etc etc .

 

[gettoasty]

I think if one was to take a tactical approach or active, tilting the asset allocation one way in anticipation of market rotation makes sense to some degree. As prior discussion noted, cash and cash equivalent made sense in 2022 up until recently. At the same time, hindsight shows repositioning that cash late 2022 to stocks made sense (timing?) Using hindsight again, large cap US has been doing spectacular. Someone with enough foresight would’ve concentrated their portfolio in the S&P 500 with little to no diversification and made a killing YTD. If valuation is any indicator, nonUS equity looks favorable in the next cycle. Who’ll bite? Investment objective and time horizon not considering.

Edit: I also wanted to comment that most investors are risk averse than they let on. For a few I’d guess they may actually have the capacity to take on more risk however be it age, income, net worth, etc.

 

[ValidusLA]

I think most people would do better just buying index ETF's on a regular basis. I think if you are risk tolerant to a degree, you can pick tactically and maybe get ahead.

S+P over 3 years has done 31.79%. My active portfolio has done 53.68% in same timeframe. Nice to beat, but its not like I'm blowing it out of the water.

I still put at least 50% of my new capital into index, because I think its unlikely I could continue to beat the market indefinitely, but my income and wife's future inheritance situation makes me pretty willing to swing.

 

[double00]

I think most people would do better just buying index ETF's on a regular basis. I think if you are risk tolerant to a degree, you can pick tactically and maybe get ahead.

S+P over 3 years has done 31.79%. My active portfolio has done 53.68% in same timeframe. Nice to beat, but its not like I'm blowing it out of the water.

I still put at least 50% of my new capital into index, because I think its unlikely I could continue to beat the market indefinitely, but my income and wife's future inheritance situation makes me pretty willing to swing.

this is really interesting , appreciate you sharing . if I had an inheritance coming I would be spending my time preparing to manage that .

in terms of active portfolio as an example in one recent scenario I realized around ( edit : lol ) 100% over a year . ngl I could've gotten 150% or a bit more if i'd waited a bit this past spring but a big part of how I view this has to do with having the discipline to sell at target , so i'm very ok with it and I think that ROI justifies my involvement . fwiw I would not bother for 50% over 3 years .

i'll add that i'm not timing anything . what i'm doing is buying and selling value ( in fact my horizon was two years ) .

 

[UnFacconable]

I think most people would do better just buying index ETF's on a regular basis.

This is easily the right answer. For the vast majority of people, living beneath your means and piling into index funds will generate more wealth than the alternative.
Even (especially?) for people who think they are great investors, this is a better approach. The bogleheads have it right and it’s easy to administer.

I don’t really give investment advice but if forced to, that’s what I say. I’ve talked to a few wealth advisors the last few years and the best ones focus their energy far more on taxes, estate planning and asset allocations than they do on market timing or sniping individual public market stocks. Its hard to beat the market on a risk adjusted basis over any appreciably long period of time and most people fail to understand the risks they are taking.

For some people the calculus changes. @Omega Male has better PE opps than most which can yield a nice risk adjusted return. I’ve played almost exclusively with early state tech investing the last few years which is basically gambling at this point and unlikely to generate great returns, but I wasn’t just doing it for returns (although I may regret it later).

 

[Texasmade]

I think most people would do better just buying index ETF's on a regular basis. I think if you are risk tolerant to a degree, you can pick tactically and maybe get ahead.

This is easily the right answer. For the vast majority of people, living beneath your means and piling into index funds will generate more wealth than the alternative.
Even (especially?) for people who think they are great investors, this is a better approach. The bogleheads have it right and it’s easy to administer.

Options trading is so much more fun. It's like daily gambling.

 

[double00]

Options trading is so much more fun. It's like daily gambling.

I don't gamble and I don't view contracts as investments but I am curious : what is the upside of options trading ?

what is the greatest options play that you have pulled off ?

 

[jcman311]

Can you give me some money then?

Sure. What services are you willing to provide for said money then?

 

[Texasmade]

I don't gamble and I don't view contracts as investments but I am curious : what is the upside of options trading ?

what is the greatest options play that you have pulled off ?

1. Tendies obviously. It gives me something else to do during the day besides sh1tposting at work.
2. No idea. I play with TNA all the time since it's 3x Russell index so lots of volatility.

 

[Piobaire]

Over the years here I've made not bones about the fact the vast bulk of our nest egg is in SPY. Pretty sure it's staying there for the duration.

 

[brokencycle]

I'm north of 50, but I have built up enough assets for me to take a small portion of it and explore. It's intellectual curiosity combined with enough success that I want learn and do more. I realize that I'm very fortunate to have the time and means for this.

Fidelity did an analysis of all their brokerage accounts. The best performing group were dead investors. The next best was those that didn't touch their accounts.

 

[ppk]

Fidelity did an analysis of all their brokerage accounts. The best performing group were dead investors. The next best was those that didn't touch their accounts.

That's nice. Thanks.

 

[otc]

That’s why I automate all my investing. Never have to think about anything

I have really been liking M1 Finance for this.

 

[jbarwick]

All of our new retirement contributions go into the S&P then other cash gets thrown into VGT which is the Vanguard tech shares.

I used to look at trying to out perform but would rather spend my time on other things. My current plan will cover what I want for my life so not sure why I would try to live someone else's life/risk tolerance.

 

[jcman311]

I play with TNA all the time