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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. danL32

    danL32 Member

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    I'm not doubting the momentum kors has, I'm just saying that I see a few ways that it could disappoint in the future. I would never short the name; I think it has the ability to soar as well. Just saying that if the stock does continue up, and expectations keep rising, then a bad quarter could plummet it. I should also say that these are just contrarian ideas for very small options trades that I have fun with, and are not related to my main portfolio.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
  2. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    Fiction always makes for better entertainment tv news than the truth.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2013
  3. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    For reasons I can't understand, there's always a robust market for extreme bearishness. Hence Roubini, Meredith Whitney, etc. having jobs...
     
  4. edmorel

    edmorel Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    I love that they trot out Whitney during the Detroit bankruptcy and she comes on like she is a world beater but somehow forgets to mention that her "majority of municipalties are going bankrupt" call from 2 years back has been a huge loser. I have a theory that once a analyst/strategist makes a huge correct call, you avoid or short every call they make after that. Whiteney is like Elaine Gazarelli, the joke is on her but she hasn't realized it yet.
     
  5. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    Whitney's kinda made for TV. Pretty (age- / profession- adjusted). Makes wild predictions. Married to a pro-wrestler (bizarrely enough).


    I can't think of anyone but Soros who can make bold prediction after bold prediction and mint money off them, seemingly at will. All I can figure is that Jorge made a pact with the devil long ago.
     
  6. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    I thought base money is considered the broadest form of money.
     
  7. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    Unless I've been using it wrong for years (which isn't out of the question) base money = M1 = dollar bills and electronic money in an account at the Fed.

    I've always heard 'broad money' to describe the broader M-s
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2013
  8. landshark

    landshark Senior member

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    Time to buy TTWO. The GTA 5 online multiplayer video will be released today and should give it a nice boost, hopefully over $20.
     
  9. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    The stock market is making an attempt at bullying the fed today, it would seem.
     
  10. otc

    otc Senior member

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    It's already at a 5-year high...maybe that anticipation is already priced in a bit?
     
  11. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    I don't believe that description is entirely correct; base money ≠ M1.

    Via Wikipedia:
    Base money = Physical Cash + Federal Reserve Deposits*
    M0 = total of all physical currency including coinage
    M1 = M0 + outside of the private banking system plus the amount of demand deposits, travelers checks and other checkable deposits
    M2 = M1 + savings accounts, money market accounts, retail money market mutual funds, and small denomination time deposits

    *special deposits that only banks can have at the Fed

    The change in Base money, M1, and M2 since 2000:

    [​IMG]

    So I guess the answer to my question is however you define broad and narrow.
     
  12. landshark

    landshark Senior member

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    Besides a lot of low price targets of $22 & $23, I have been seeing $25-$27+ lately. Maybe long term it will be lower, but upon release I feel like the hype will pump up the stock enough to take a tidy profit, even at ~$18.
     
  13. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    I think you may have missed OTC's point. The release date has been known for some time, so any "pop" would almost certainly be priced in already - unless sales out of the box far exceed expectations.

    Anyway, it's down a touch today -- perhaps due in part to the broader decline. But it's certainly not showing signs of a pop. And now that the game has been released, I would expect near-term price performance to be driven much more by actual vs. expected sales figures than by "hype".
     
  14. otc

    otc Senior member

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    I've noticed that the things that gamers (or users in a non-game software company) get excited about are rarely the same things that investors are excited about.

    Probably because things like...ongoing updates and additional content are not short term revenue generators. Sure, they earn goodwill and keep a loyal fanbase around for your next game/expansion/update...but to a lot of shareholders, it is money going out the door now without hard cash coming in.
     
  15. landshark

    landshark Senior member

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    For perspective, from Grand Theft Auto 4:

    "Grand Theft Auto IV's sales surpassed those of last year's best-selling title from Microsoft, Halo 3. That title (Halo 3) established a new, single-day sales record of $180 million dollars.

    Take-Two estimates that on its first day, GTA IV sold 3.6 million copies and generated $310 million in sales, far surpassing Halo 3's performance."


    GTA 4 beat the single day sales record by almost double (against another popular franchise).

    From what has been shown so far, this game will certainly exceed the scale and quality of its predecessor.

    As for the performance today, there was some "bad" unexpected news: That multiplayer wont be available until October 1, 2 weeks after release.


    You know, I can appreciate that. However, the coverage that every single detail gets when its released is just one example of the community interest. This game would be the most advanced, detailed, and desirable gaming wise & has the potential for record breaking sales, just like its predecessor.

    On every single but every release in the past there has been a spike on or around the release date. Throw in a little hype and this will definitely go up. Maybe not long term (even 1-2 months after I could see a drop) but still, long enough to take a profit if you bought at the right price.
     
  16. stevent

    stevent Senior member

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    Yeah 6-7 years ago I wanted to get take two since the only video game I ever played was GTA. Happy I didn't as it never really would have made any money. Game sales don't directly transfer to stock price increases and pretty sure any pop was pretty minor if at all. My dad used to do it with marvel stock and that worked as I think the first few movies did way better than expected. If GTA doesn't blow out estimates then stock price stays the same or goes lower
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2013
  17. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    Apples and oranges. What's relevant is not sales compared to what other games have sold in the past. It's sales compared to expected sales for this game. If it triples the previous sales record but people were expecting it to quadruple the previous record, that's not good news for investors.

    I also don't understand why you're touting a history of the price spiking on past release dates, when the game has now been out for a couple of days and the stock is flat-to-down.

    Hope it works out for you, though.
     
  18. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Did anyone take a gamble with JWN? Hasn't been looking good since earnings.
     
  19. landshark

    landshark Senior member

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    The game hasn't even been released.

    Quadrupling a record $310 million in single day sales may or may not be expected, but regardless, even tripling that would mean sales of almost 1 billion dollars, in a single day. I don't see how that would be bad news for anybody.

    And it IS relevant how much the previous GTA sold. It is reasonable to believe that if this game is better in all ways than its predecessor GTA IV, as it seems to be, then it will probably sell more in a single day and over its lifetime. More Sales = More $, no matter how you look at it.
     
  20. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    My bad on the release date point - I misread your first post when you referred to the multiplayer video, as opposed to the game release. That's a big part of why your post didn't really make sense to me.

    But I still think your analysis is overlooking a critical point -- that saying there will be a lot of sales is a non sequitur unless you consider whether those sales will exceed or fall short of the sales expectations that are already priced in.

    As to the quadrupling vs. tripling, it has to do with how stocks are valued. $1.2 billion in sales is a lot of sales, and sounds great. But if the market was expecting $3.9 billion, $1.2 billion is a catastrophe. Companies like Walmart, Intel, and Electronic Arts have all taken big stock hits after announcing that they brought in enormous amounts of money - just not as enormous as the markets were expecting.

    So yes, more sales and more revenue are always better news than less sales and less revenue. But that's not the point.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2013

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