Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Piobaire]

Something to remember is you’ll have money deducted for wage income if you retire prior to full retirement age, so if you plan to keep working, add that to your calculations.

I know there’s some thresholds, under which you won’t be penalized, but think they’re pretty low by StyFo standards.

 

[brokencycle]

Something to remember is you’ll have money deducted for wage income if you retire prior to full retirement age, so if you plan to keep working, add that to your calculations.

I know there’s some thresholds, under which you won’t be penalized, but think they’re pretty low by StyFo standards.

All of this is nothing more than a thought exercise. I don't think SS will exist when I retire. Even if it does, the rules will be different.

 

[Piobaire]

True. I’ve said before I figure just when I go to collect either the Republicans will have eliminated it or the Dems will means test me out of it.

 

[Texasmade]

True. I’ve said before I figure just when I go to collect either the Republicans will have eliminated it or the Dems will means test me out of it.

Better off to be so rich that you won't need it vs having it just be eliminated.

 

[brokencycle]

True. I’ve said before I figure just when I go to collect either the Republicans will have eliminated it or the Dems will means test me out of it.

Means testing seems like a hard thing to sell to people. Income won't be possible because you'll be retired and thus no income (except draws from pension/retirement plans), so it would have to be asset based, and people aren't going to like the idea of sharing asset data with the federal government.

 

[Piobaire]

Better off to be so rich that you won't need it vs having it just be eliminated.

Like the Dems would set the threshold at “rich.”

Means testing seems like a hard thing to sell to people. Income won't be possible because you'll be retired and thus no income (except draws from pension/retirement plans), so it would have to be asset based, and people aren't going to like the idea of sharing asset data with the federal government.

They know what’s in your retirement accounts.

 

[jbarwick]

Social Security will be solvent for a long time even with a reduced payout rate. Means testing doesn't seem to help that much in the grand scheme of Public spending. It saves in the millions and we need billion dollar solves.

 

[Texasmade]

Social Security will be solvent for a long time even with a reduced payout rate. Means testing doesn't seem to help that much in the grand scheme of Public spending. It saves in the millions and we need billion dollar solves.

Only people that can get SS benefits are those that have no student loans outstanding.

 

[jbarwick]

Only people that can get SS benefits are those that have no student loans outstanding.

Is that a suggestion or is it a real thing? I know Piob has student loans but if it is a thing, would it be gov't only or even private? I know some older folks who cosigned for their kids loans and own A LOT.

 

[Texasmade]

Is that a suggestion or is it a real thing? I know Piob has student loans but if it is a thing, would it be gov't only or even private? I know some older folks who cosigned for their kids loans and own A LOT.

Way for @Piobaire to get screwed again.

 

[double00]

Actually the opposite: it was the strengthening yen, and Japanese interest rate hikes, that caused people to unwind their leveraged positions in yen arbitrage.

But what do I know?

🤷‍♂️

nope . fyi inflation weakens currency , the Japanese interest rate hikes are a response to that .

the yen carry trade relies on low Japanese yields and high foreign yields ( for instance usd ) . if the dollar strengthens yen carry trade is less lucrative . it's the same if the yen weakens . it's the spread .

anyways i think it was monday that ai stocks took a dump ? imho i doubt it was the yen carry trade at the bottom of it .

 

[Piobaire]

nope . fyi inflation weakens currency , the Japanese interest rate hikes are a response to that .

the yen carry trade relies on low Japanese yields and high foreign yields ( for instance usd ) . if the dollar strengthens yen carry trade is less lucrative . it's the same if the yen weakens . it's the spread .

anyways i think it was monday that ai stocks took a dump ? imho i doubt it was the yen carry trade at the bottom of it .

Thank you for this insightful analysis of how yen carry trades work.

What are carry trades and how did they contribute to this week's global market mayhem?

The mayhem that swept across world markets this week was partly caused by a market strategy known as the “carry trade.”

apnews.com

 

[double00]

Thank you for this insightful analysis of how yen carry trades work.

What are carry trades and how did they contribute to this week's global market mayhem?

The mayhem that swept across world markets this week was partly caused by a market strategy known as the “carry trade.”

apnews.com

no prob . your op asked if the yen carry trade was responsible for monday . i don't really think so , maybe you have a different take ?

 

[Piobaire]

I have a different take on the transaction. If by "yield" you mean "interest rate" then you have that part correct. As to your claim about currency fluctuation, you say if yen weakens the trade is less lucrative. You may be correct, so help correct my faulty thinking.

I borrow 100 yen and buy with it $1 USD to invest. During the course of the loan the yen weakens and it only takes 80 cents to pay off that 100 yen loan. I don't claim any level of financial sophistication, but it would seem to me this is a profitable situation, one that became more lucrative over the course of the loan.

Conversely, I borrow 100 yen and buy with it $1 USD to invest. During the course of the loan the dollar strengthens such that it only takes 80 cents to pay off that 100 yean loan. Again, simple man that I am, it would seem this transaction has also became more lucrative.

There's no doubt that tech stocks hurt markets on Monday but it was Japan that dropped so precipitously that triggered the global worries. Probably just a coincidence that the big unwind of yen carry trades happened too?

🤷‍♂️

 

[Lizard23]

Just took July's dividends, and any cash available, and dropped into SPY just after open. Paid about 7.5% less than what it was three weeks ago.

I bought a tranche on Monday as well. Weird. Probably means we both did it wrong.