Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[double00]

I've heard inflation just eats away at cash so I'm staying away from it!

zigging when they zag eh ? godspeed piob !

 

[double00]

also : TIL $eppo

 

[venividivicibj]

Sounds like David Sacks etc, until SVB went down early this year. All of a sudden the gov is amazing

 

[Piobaire]

So were yen carry trades really the reason for Monday's sell off?

 

[Texasmade]

So were yen carry trades really the reason for Monday's sell off?

AI bubble starting to burst didn't help.

 

[Omega Male]

 

[double00]

So were yen carry trades really the reason for Monday's sell off?

i suspect the underlying story is the search for value in the face of a strengthening usd . yen carry trade is downstream of that imho .

 

[gettoasty]

How would you interpret this?

 

[venividivicibj]

How would you interpret this?

if you expect to live past 80, claim at 70 unless you think you can expect a 8%+ return every year

But more easily - barring medical or monetary issues, try to claim as late as possible.

 

[beargonefishing]

All I read into that infograph was don't be poor.

 

[brokencycle]

How would you interpret this?

Why would I claim SS earlier if I think I can a higher rate of return? Is it because I can use that income to support me while my assets continue to grow?

 

[Piobaire]

i suspect the underlying story is the search for value in the face of a strengthening usd . yen carry trade is downstream of that imho .

Actually the opposite: it was the strengthening yen, and Japanese interest rate hikes, that caused people to unwind their leveraged positions in yen arbitrage.

But what do I know?

🤷‍♂️

 

[Piobaire]

If you're in the position where you need to claim SS at 62 you either expect a short retirement, and/or really have no phucking clue what your expected rate of return is on your nest egg will be, as you don't have a nest egg.

 

[UnFacconable]

Why would I claim SS earlier if I think I can a higher rate of return? Is it because I can use that income to support me while my assets continue to grow?

I think it's relatively straight forward but requires knowledge of the future that no one can really have, particularly (as @Piobaire points out) someone who needs to take social security early.

Basically, your social security payments increase the later you take them, but the increase doesn't necessarily increase faster than the rate of return on your investments. And, of course, if you take social security later and don't live very long, you won't get that many payments.

The flaw here is that people don't know how long they will live and mostly don't care to estimate it. Further, no one has any real reason to believe they will achieve an 8%+ rate of return (which would imply they should take earlier).

If you do have some retirement savings though (with plenty of equity exposure) and aren't particularly healthy, claiming at 62 doesn't seem like a terrible idea.

 

[brokencycle]

I think it's relatively straight forward but requires knowledge of the future that no one can really have, particularly (as @Piobaire points out) someone who needs to take social security early.

Basically, your social security payments increase the later you take them, but the increase doesn't necessarily increase faster than the rate of return on your investments. And, of course, if you take social security later and don't live very long, you won't get that many payments.

The flaw here is that people don't know how long they will live and mostly don't care to estimate it. Further, no one has any real reason to believe they will achieve an 8%+ rate of return (which would imply they should take earlier).

If you do have some retirement savings though (with plenty of equity exposure) and aren't particularly healthy, claiming at 62 doesn't seem like a terrible idea.

That makes sense. I knew payments go up if you wait, but I didn't think they were related to rate of return. I thought there is a calculated 'full retirement' value and then if you retire at 62 it is 30% less.

I just looked, and I guess you can retire at 70 for an extra 8%/year increase. That was news to me, so now I understand how they're calculating it. I thought it was slightly different (you would need to draw down your own assets less because you have SS income starting at 62) which didn't make sense.